The Independently Wealthy – April 2026 End of Month Update

Old Man with a Gold Chain (1631) – Rembrandt van Rijn – Art institute Chicago

In his youth, it was a revelation to Slack Investor that some people didn’t have a job – they just had income derived from assets.

He didn’t know of anyone who was independently wealthy, and thought that the normal course was to work hard till retirement age, then apply for the government pension. That’s what his parents and grandparents did. Those who have been employed since compulsory super emerged in the 1990’s can rely on industry-based super plus any extra savings.

Slack Investor has had the aim of being independently wealthy – being able to support retirement through income from assets (investments). This is the goal. However, things happen along the way, and the next best thing would be to own your own (even modest) home before retirement and get to the ‘sweetspot’ of assets. As of March 2026, this is where a couple can have between $470 000 and $1 045 500 in retirement assets and still qualify for some government-funded aged pension to top up their income from savings.

The Path to Independent Wealth

It was reading the pioneer finance blogs of people like Mr Money Moustache that the idea of ‘Independent Wealth’ could be pursued by a normal working person. First, you have to save your retirement funds. Hopefully, the fund return will be a few percent above inflation and then you can withdraw money (based loosely on the ‘4% rule’) to live on.

‘Assuming a minimum requirement of 30 years of
portfolio longevity, a first-year withdrawal of 4%,
followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals in
subsequent years, should be safe.‘ _{– FPA Journal – The Best of 25 Years: Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data}

Maximum safe withdrawal rate (SAFEMAX) calculated for a 30-yr retirement on a conservative balanced portfolio of 50% US stocks and 50% US Bonds. From – Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data by William P. Bengen

There is some concern that this ‘4% rule’ of thumb is inadequate as it is based upon historical market performance from 1926 until 1992 where stock market returns have been mostly good. Some advisers recommend a lower withdrawal rate of 3.3% in the initial stages – and a flexible approach to retirement spending.

The Independent Wealth Path Could be Tricky in the Next Decade

Due to the current high valuations, Vanguard is predicting a lower than average median 10-yr return for equities for the next 10 years. The Vanguard predictions are based upon past data and do not account for the productivity benefits of AI – which might justify current valuations – but they are a concern.

Vanguard 10-year annualised nominal return (In Australian Dollars) and volatility forecasts are based on the 31 December 2025 run of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) The model incorporates the long-term predictive power of current CAPE valuations.

Slack Investor’s view is that no one really can predict the future, and there is a high volatility expressed with these equity forecasts. However, the Vanguard model 10-yr forecasts have usually been correct between the 25th and 75th percentile ranges. This gives a more rubbery forecast that Slack Investor is happier to work with. From the Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts issued April 2026, the predicted 10-yr percentile annual returns for each asset group are shown below. Median predictions for 10-yr earnings in stocks are the lowest since this prediction model was developed. When compared to historical returns over the past 30 years (Vanguard), the median forecasts are quite low for stock-related investments.

Asset Class	25th Percentile Forecast	Median Forecast	75th Percentile Forecast	Vanguard Historical 30-yr av. Returns
US Equities	2.6%	5.9%	9.6%	10.1%
Global (ex US) Equities	3.1%	6.0%	9.1%	9.6%
Emerging Markets	0.5%	4.6%	8.7%	9.9%
US Treasury bonds	4.0%	4.6%	5.3%	4.1%
US Inflation	1.4%	2.0%	2.5%	2.6%

Vanguard model predicted 10-yr (From 2026) percentile and median annual returns for each asset group. The historical average for the previous 30-yr is also shown.

The ‘Independent Wealth’ path could be tricky to negotiate in the next 10 years if the forecast 10-yr returns are nearer the 25th percentile – there is a 25% chance that the returns will be lower than this. The best way to protect your funds is to hold a good portion of them in stable reserve. Slack Investor has about 30% of his funds in annuities, cash/bonds, stable dividend stocks, REIT’s, etc. Also, keep your retirement portfolio diversified across asset classes.

What Slack Investor did with the ‘4% Rule’

Before retirement: He used the ‘4% rule’ of thumb to determine the equivalence of salary and income, so that he knew if he had enough funds to retire.

For example, if a retirement salary of $40 000 for a couple is required, the 4% rule indicates that we should multiply this amount by 25 to get our retirement lump sum.

$40 000 x 25 = $1 000 000 in retirement funds

$80 000 x 25 = $2 000 000 in retirement funds, etc

First 5 years of retirement: Be careful here, this is where you are most prone to sequencing risk.

Sequencing risk (also called sequence of returns risk) is the danger that a significant market downturn in the early years of retirement will permanently damage your portfolio _{– Wealthlab}

Slack Investor encountered below average returns in his 2nd and 4th year of retirement. He coped with this in two ways.

1. A dynamic spending strategy approach to net withdrawals from the retirement fund. After a good year, we would spend more on holidays. A bad year would mean a more modest approach.

2. The use of pile theory (buckets). His initial spread was 70% in investments and 30% in stable income. He has tried to keep these ratios reasonably steady by withdrawing from the over allocated pile each year.

Set up a ratio of Stable income: Investments in Your Retirement Fund that you are happy with and take your annual expenses out of the pile that is over allocated at the end of the year. In the above case, Investments – From Slack Investor

After 5 years of retirement: Fill your boots. If the first 5 years hasn’t stressed your retirement funds, then things should be fine. There are mandated withdrawals from Super Funds (Aged 65–74: 5%, 75–79: 6%, 80–84: 7%, etc) but, if you are under age 75, re-contribution of any excess funds is a good idea.

Slack Investor has gone down the path of trying to preserve most of the capital in his retirement fund to use as a gift to the next generation or, (I hope not!) an aged care accommodation deposit. He won’t mind a bit of capital shrinkage as he gets older. He anticipates that, after the age of 70, there is more a danger of running out of time rather than money.

April 2026 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

All markets had a rebound in April. The rise was modest for the ASX 200 (+2.2%) and the FTSE 100 (+ 2.0%). The ‘Crazy Brave’ US market had strong growth (+ 9.5%) on the possibility of an Iran War ‘deal’ and a return to ships passing freely through the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, this hasn’t happened yet.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

The Minutia of Investing – Portfolio Tracking and Tax Reporting

Slack Investor has just finished the inputs for his family tax returns and our SMSF tax return. All Good – and he was pleased that it was a painless procedure. After many years of investing, he has got himself organized.

A lot of the tax-time pain has been erased because of his disciplined rituals. As soon as he gets a communication about his shares (usually email) it is downloaded to one of Slack Investor’s Finance folders on his PC. The Finance folder has two sub-folders one for Transactions (Buy/Sell contract notes from Brokers) and, another for communications from Share Registries labelled DIVIDENDS_TaxStatements. He then saves items in these folders with specific notation Account_StockSymbol_Type of document_Date of issue (YYYY-MM-DD). For Tax Statements, Slack Investor will allocate the date for the end of tax year that the statement covered. After completing tax returns, Slack Investor will archive the files to the folder for the previous tax year – and start again for the current year.

Slack Investor’s Portfolio Tracking

Microsoft Money Sunset

Slack Investor will also enter any transactions or income events into his portfolio tracking software. He uses the retired but excellent (and free) ‘Sunset’ International English version of Microsoft Money downloaded from Gareth J. M. Saunders site. There is also a UK Version, and a US Version.

To automate share price updates it is necessary to use a service like MSMoneyQuotes. The latter is not freeware but the $US10 lifetime licence is money well spent. MS Money is now a 20-yr old bit of software and is a bit clunky but there is a good installation guide at TechFinitive that will help you through – including some registry changes to work with windows 10/11. Slack Investor loves MS Money, and the many support sites, e.g. View from the Potting Shed which has a free support pdf available, Ameridan’s Blog and moneymvps.org. He has been using versions of MS Money for 30 years!

For those who don’t want to wander through the complications of the Microsoft Money path, it is really important to track your portfolio for capital gains and performance, and at least some sort of portfolio tracking is recommended. Slack Investor cannot stress this enough. The ATO will want information when you sell stocks. They require your sell date and price, and the harder to find, buy date and initial cost of your shares/ETF’s – in order to calculate any capital gains tax. This procedure can get complicated when you buy shares in different lots or, participate in a dividend re-investment program as the ATO require a cost-basis for each parcel. It will make your life easier if you have a portfolio manager or, at least, a capital gains tracker.

Portfolio Tracking with Monthly Fees

For Australians, the slickest products involve an annual/monthly cost as good financial software requires constant development.

Sharesight

A highly-rated financial portfolio tracker that includes tax statements and capital gains tracking for $228 annually for one portfolio or $348 annually for up to 4 portfolios. Sharesight used to have a free version that included tax reporting for one portfolio with under 10 shares. However, they have now dropped tax reporting privileges for free accounts.

Navexa

Another nice looking and highly-rated product. A financial portfolio tracker that includes tax statements and capital gains tracking for $240 annually for one portfolio or $300 annually for up to 3 portfolios.

Snowball

This is a US-based portfolio tracker so it will not help greatly with your Australian tax reporting. However, it is a highly-rated and a good looking way to track your Australian and US shares for around $130 AUD annually for one portfolio or $230 AUD annually for up to 10 portfolios.

Finance Tracking without Monthly Fees

Down at the budget end we have products that require a bit more work. There are a few other alternative finance products that are discussed in Whirlpool – but Slack Investor presents a few solutions below.

Yahoo Finance

This is a very basic tracker that can track your overall portfolio performance if you enter your buys and sells and dividends manually. Slack Investor uses Yahoo Finance to keep an eye on the day to day movements of his portfolio plus watchlists. There is no tax reporting or help with capital gains, but Yahoo Finance is a free portal to track your portfolio and it will have your buy and sell information in one place.

Stock Profit

An excellent free alternative to portfolio tracking is the google sheets based Stock Profit. There is a bit of a effort in setting it up but it will track your performance and capital gains with ease. This really is a good product.

Capital Gains Tracker

If you are not worried about portfolio tracking you will make your life easier at tax time if you have some means of tracking capital gains and the free web-based but locally stored cgtracker will supply you with capital gains information and tax statements. Capital Gains Tracker is free to use but you must enter all your buy/sell information.

Personal taxes and Mytax

Firstly, a ‘Hats Off’ to the ATO who have made their online tax returns (MyTax) a very simple process with the ‘pre-filling’ of wages, dividends and distributions. Slack Investor usually waits till September to allow all the pre-filling documents time to trickle in to the ATO. It is now incredibly easy to fill in a tax return yourself and only those with very complex tax affairs should need an accountant.

If your tax affairs are relatively straightforward, MyTax is a fast, free and effective way to lodge your return online. It puts control in your hands, provides instant access to pre-filled information, and helps you get your refund sooner. _{– Tax Window}

By September, all of Slack Investor’s personal tax information was pre-filled, including the distributions from ETF’s that often have internal capital gains and foreign income. He had additional capital gains from share selling and opted to use their Capital Gains Worksheet which was part of MyTax – it already had the small ETF internal capital gains prefilled and he just had to add buy dates and costs for each lot of shares sold. Slack Investor had all of this information on MS Money – but any capital gains tracker would have this information in one place. For advice on any problems with MyTax, he went to the ATO community rather than the official ATO site – which often has opaque, or vague, solutions to your problems.

SMSF Tax Return

Slack Investor started the process in October when his provider (Esuperfund) prompted him to allocate categories to each of the transactions for his SMSF Bank account. All the dividends and distributions were pre-filled but he needed to label the type of contributions (concessional/non-concessional) and the relevant member of the SMSF. Also, he had to determine from which pension account any withdrawals came from. There was some head scratching to make sure the minimum amount withdrawal requirement (5% age 65–74, 4% age under 65) from each pension account had been fulfilled.

Slack Investor had to assure Esuperfund that he hadn’t bought any exotic assets outside of their monitored banks/brokers. He also had to upload Tax Statements from each of the ETF’s in the SMSF portfolio. Luckily, they were all in one place in my Dividends_Tax Statements folder. He submitted the checklist and now have to wait a long ~7 months – till May 2026. By which time, Esuperfund will have obtained an Auditor’s review and will present the trustees with the 2025 SMSF Tax Return to sign.

Financial Year 2025 – Full Slack Results

‘In God we trust; all others bring data.‘
W. Edwards Deming Statistician/Consultant (1900–1993)

Slack Investor likes to measure things, especially long-term results. In the world markets, for FY 2025, the FTSE 100 Total Return Index was up 10.8% (FY 2024 up 11.8%). Dividends helped the Australian Accumulation Index to be up 9.0% for the financial year (FY 2024 +12.2%). The S&P 500 Total Return Index is again the top performer – and was up 15.2% (FY 2024 +24.2%). All of these Total Return Indices include any accumulated dividends.

Slack Investor has stuck to his strategy of mostly investing with growing companies that are profitable (Return on Equity >15%), have an established earnings record and, not too expensive (forward P/E ratios <50). He expects a bit of volatility in his growth oriented investment portfolio. He is reassured that, despite the odd negative year in the Slack Fund, the dividends and his separate Stable Income portfolio are doing what they should – keeping Slack Investor with enough cash to ‘keep the wheels on’ the Slack lifestyle – should the stock market sour.

Slack Portfolio Results FY 2025

All Performance results are before tax. The Slack Portfolio is Slack Investor’s investment portfolio. He is glad to report an annual FY 2025 performance of +18.1%. Full yearly results with Australian benchmarks are shown in the table below. Slack Investor realises that only long-term results really count.

For property values, Slack Investor is using the Home Price Index supplied by PropTrack. The Index uses median values for each city – I would have preferred calculations that include the net rental yield, but this will have to do. Of course, the real estate industry avoids true measurement of real estate performance by collecting figures only on gross price changes – they ignore the significant transfer costs involved (Stamp Duty, Conveyancing, Bank Fees, etc) and, the costs of any home improvements and renovations.

For FY 2025, the Australian Share market Total Return Index (ASX200 Acc) was up 9.0%. The Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF (VDGR), comprising International shares (42%) and Australian Shares (28%), increased by 12.7%. Inflation is now within the Reserve Bank target – with the CPI at +2.1%.

The Cash rate of 4.3% is above inflation. Cash is important – but not a way to grow your wealth. The average readily available cash rate of return since 2010 is 2.6% and, for cpi measured inflation, it is 2.7%.

Yearly Performance (%) results since 2010

The Slack Fund yearly Internal Rate of Return (IRR) vs BENCHMARKS. The Median Balanced Fund (41-60% Growth Assets), Vanguard Growth Fund, ASX 200 Accumulation Index, PropTrack Home Price Index in both Brisbane and Melbourne, and Cash (Australian Super Cash Fund) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). AV. YEARLY is the annual mean of all the data since 2010.

5-yr Average Annual Performance

Although Slack Investor collects yearly figures, the 5 and 10-year compound annual performance gives me a much better idea about how things are really going. Long-term results will smooth out any dud (or remarkable!) yearly figures. The Slack Fund is still ahead of most Benchmarks – but running a close second is Brisbane Residential real estate over a five-year period.

*The Slack Fund **average 5-yr compound yearly return** vs BENCHMARKS in chart form.*

10-year compound annual rate of return

The Slack Fund has been around a while and generating some good long term data (10-year compound ‘rolling’ annual rate of return). Over this time frame, the Slack Fund has been performing very well. For FY 2025, a 10-year annual rate of return of over 17% – Go Slack Fund! The 10-yr data is shown below in table and chart form.

It is useful to note that, the 10-yr rates of return for the Median Balanced Fund, Vanguard Growth fund, ASX200, and residential property in Brisbane and Melbourne are also good long-term investments. These appreciating assets generate a 10-yr compound annual rate of return in the region of 6-9% p.a.

The Slack Fund average 10-yr compound yearly return vs BENCHMARKS in table form. Prior to 2022, 10-yr Vanguard Growth fund figures were not available. AV. YEARLY is the annual mean of all the data since 2019.

Although Cash is necessary to add stability and flexibility to a portfolio. From the chart below, Cash as a long-term investment vehicle, is a poor choice.

*The Slack Fund **average 10-yr compound yearly return** vs BENCHMARKS in chart form.*

15-year compound annual rate of return

Perhaps because Slack Investor is showing signs of age, he notices that there is enough accumulated data for rolling 15-yr rates of return. Happy to report solid long-term results.

The Slack Fund average 15-yr compound yearly return vs BENCHMARKS in table form.

Growth of a $10 000 Investment Since 2009

The beauty of compounding with a succession of good performance results can be seen in the chart below showing the growth of an initial investment in June 2009 of $10 000.

The growth of $10 000 invested in the Slack Fund vs BENCHMARKS. The Median Balanced Fund (41-60% Growth Assets), Vanguard Growth Fund, ASX 200 Accumulation Index, PropTrack Home Price Index in both Brisbane and Melbourne, and Cash (Australian Super Cash Fund).

The Slack Fund has exceeded my expectations. Also, the chart shows that investing in either shares or residential property has been a solid way of growing your money over the long term.

FY 2025 Nuggets and Stinkers and July 2025 – End of Month Update

‘Do not judge me by my success, judge me by how many times I fell down and got back up again.’
Nelson Mandela

Slack Investor is obviously not in Nelson Mandela’s league … but I do admire President Mandela’s resilience. Learning to live with stock prices that go down is an important part of successful investing.

This post is a bit of an annual ‘poke around’ in the portfolio. The percentage yearly returns quoted in this post include costs (brokerage) but, the returns are before tax. This raw figure can then be compared with other investment returns.

I use the incredibly useful Market Screener to analyze the financial data from each company. This excellent site allows free access (up to a daily limit) to their analyst’s data, on the financials tab for each stock, once you register with an email address. Slack Investor extracted the predicted 2027 Price/Earnings (PE) Ratio and Return on Equity (ROE) and average forecast revenue growth for the financial years 2025, 2026 and 2027. He then condensed all this information into one number, the Slack Factor, to make things easy for Slack Investor’s limited brain. The Slack Factor is still ‘experimental’ but, increasingly, Slack Investor is using it to differentiate between stocks – the higher Slack Factor, the better.

Slack Investor Stinkers – FY 2025

Financial year 2025 was big on volatility. Despite this, Slack Investor’s followed markets all ended up with solid total returns when dividends are taken into account. Australia +9.0%, the UK +10.8%, and the US +15.2%. Slack Investor knows that stinkers are a part of the game, even in good years – and managed to attach himself to a few stinkers along the way.

Webjet (WEB + WJL) -46%

This is a complicated story as Slack Investor bought into Webjet (WEB) which then split into two entities. The ‘sizzle’ was that Web Travel Group contained a wholesale booking business that was growing fast. Suffice to say, that sales didn’t meet expectations and both companies sank. He then lost faith and sold both. When it comes to the travel business, Slack Investor wants to be only a consumer as there seems too much competition in this field.

CSL (CSL) -18%

(CSL – Forecast 2027: PE 22, ROE 18%, Av. Growth 14%, Slack Factor 12). CSL is a big holding for Slack Investor (10% of portfolio) and, for the past 6 years, has been rangebound between $230 and $330. It has not had the chart of a growth stock but, they have continued to spend on Research & Product Development at levels around 10% of revenue. This should be a good thing for future earnings. The eternal optimist in me is thinking … this is the year! But, I also thought this last year … and the year before … there is a strong chart signal this year though – the powerful ‘wedgie’! If it wasn’t already such a large part of my portfolio, now would be a good time to buy.

Botanix Pharma (BOT) -12%

Slack Investor entered the murky and volatile world of Biotechs with a small stake (0.2% of portfolio) in Botanix Pharmaceuticals. So far, not very good! It seems there is a lot that can go wrong in this field for startups.

Slack Investor also went backwards with his holdings in Dicker Data (DDR), GlobalX ACDC ETF, and Cochlear (COH) – all now sold. Wisetech (WTC) and Alphabet (GOOGL) were also on the slide but, thankfully now recovering.

Slack Investor Nuggets – FY 2025

Nuggets are a blessing in any portfolio – this Financial Year, there were some bewdies. Slack Investor continues to invest in high Return on Equity (ROE) companies with a track record of increasing earnings. If expectations are met, companies with these qualities sometimes behave as ‘golden nuggets’.

TechnologyOne (TNE) +124%

(TNE – Forecast 2027: PE 64, ROE 34%, Av. Growth 20%, Slack Factor 11). Technology One is a great Australian success story. It sells software as a service to other companies internationally. I first came across this company through Rudi Filapek-Vandyck – who included TNE as one of his ‘All Weather’ stocks. Glad to be an owner of TNE, as well as owning many other of Rudi’s All Weathers. Very highly valued (2027 PE 64) now though!

Pro Medicus (PME) +104%

(PME – Forecast 2027: PE 154, ROE 53%, Av. Growth 38%, Slack Factor 13). Pro Medicus is a developer and supplier of healthcare imaging software and services to hospitals and diagnostic imaging groups. The Price to Earnings ratio is frighteningly high (2027 PE 154) – but Slack Investor is enjoying the journey.

Codan (CDA) +75%

(CDA – Forecast 2027: PE 27, ROE 23%, Av. Growth 20%, Slack Factor 17). Codan is a technology company that specializes in communications and metal detecting. It is one of Slack Investor’s core holdings. CDA has had a checkered past – a nugget in FY 2021 (+161%), a stinker in FY 2022 (-58%), a nugget in 2024 (+54%), and again, a nugget (+75%) in 2025. What has kept me in the stock was its low debt, (generally) increasing earnings, and the high profitability (ROE 23%).

Supply Network (SNL) +70%

(SNL – Forecast 2027: PE 30, ROE 38%, Av. Growth 18%, Slack Factor 23). Supply Network are a bus and truck parts distribution company using the Multispares brand. Although there are competitors in the big-vehicle parts business, what sets SNL apart from the rest is their great management and strict adherence to processes and efficiency. They have consistently held a profitability advantage over their rivals. They have maintained a high Return on Equity (ROE) of 36% even as the company has expanded and grown in price. What a well-run company!

Megaport (MP1) +52%

(MP1 – Forecast 2027: PE 74, ROE 18%, Av. Growth 55%, Slack Factor 13). Megaport provides software that helps other companies to create and manage secure network connections between offices and the cloud. They must be doing something right as their average predicted revenue growth for the next 3 years is 55%! I’m in, but this is one of Slack Investor’s more risky buys!

Nick Scali (NCK) +43%

(NCK– Forecast 2027: PE 18, ROE 28%, Av. Growth 14%, Slack Factor 22). Nick Scali is well known in Australia for importing and retailing furniture. They have done an excellent job of expanding their business in Australia due to their fine management skills. They expanded into the UK in 2024 and have been quietly, and efficiently, getting on with the job. Future profitability remains good (ROE 28%), and PE not too high.

Some very honourable mentions to some top results this year that didn’t quite make the nuggets. BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) +38%; Resmed Technologies (RMD.AX) +38%; XRF Scientific (XRF) +37%; Wesfarmers (WES) +35%; Coles (COL) +29% and REA Group (REA) +24%.

Slack Investor Investments performance – FY 2025

After a bonanza FY 2024, this was a wild ‘Trump affected’ FY 2025. In the Australian superannuation scene, the median growth fund (61 to 80% in growth assets) did manage to return+10.5% in FY 2025.

Slack investor has just two piles of funds for his retirement – the Stable Income pile (Cash and Conservative) and an Investments Pile. The Stable income represents around 25% of total retirement funds. I used to rebalance each of my piles after every year, but the stable pile now has enough in it that, together with dividends from my investments, could supply me with enough living expenses to last out an extended (3-yr) bad run of the stock markets. Slack Investor would not be forced to sell stocks. The stable pile has again produced a moderate return of nearly 5% (inflation plus ~ 2.5%).

The Investments Portfolio rise nicely with preliminary figures showing an 18.1% rise at June 30, 2025. A good result for Slack Investor in his growth investments pile. Including the relatively low returns from my stable income pile (4.7%), overall, the weighted return on all my retirement funds grew 14.6%.

For the most part, Slack Investor concentrates his annual performance details for the much more exciting Investments pile.

For Slack Investor, the 5-yr performance is a more useful way of measuring – as it takes out the fluctuations of yearly returns. At the end of FY 2025, the Slack Investments Portfolio has a compounding 5-yr annual return of around 15%. Full results and benchmarks expected next post.

July 2025 – end of Month Update

The new financial year has started off positively for Slack Investor markets. The ASX 200 + 2.3%; FTSE 100 +4.2%; and S&P 500 +2.2%. He remains IN for all index positions.

I have taken the opportunity to adjust upwards the stop losses on all followed index markets. The prices had crept up to around 15% above their old stop losses. See Index pages for details.

All Index pages (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index) and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes.

ASX Paperwork Breakthrough – and May 2025 – End of Month Update

Back in 2021, Slack Investor wrote about the enormous amount of wasted paper generated by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with their CHESS Holding Statements – which they have insisted must be mailed to my address. My feelings expressed in ASX Paper … I’m Drowning! still hold true.

Examples of the reams of **CHESS holding statements** that have cluttered my mailbox for years

I have never had a dispute with my broker about how many shares I own in a company … and, I am sure, that by waving a paper CHESS Holding Statement that I couldn’t dispute a logged transaction or a contract note. But, in an unexpected (due to very low expectations!) breakthrough from the ASX, they have finally opted for the possibility of a non-postal way of receiving your CHESS Holding Statement. But, of course, they have had to make the transition complicated.

Years ago, when Slack Investor first tried to get his holding statements electronically, he was told on the phone by the ASX that ‘it was impossible’ as they do not hold email addresses – just postal addresses for each holding! Hence the reliance on the postal service.

The ‘Opting IN’ process to get Chess Holding Statements electronically

First thing: Contact your broker

To get this started. you must contact your broker – who, is also your CHESS sponsor for your shares and ETF’s. In Slack Investors case, he has two Australian brokers: SelfWealth and Commsec. Each of them have to be informed – as each CHESS sponsor will have their own HIN for your holdings.

For SelfWealth, they have a link to explain proceedings. For Commsec, there is also a link to show the necessary steps. Slack Investor had to login then navigate to Portfolio / Holdings / View or Edit Account Details. Then elect to receive statements electronically.

In both cases, once you have opted in, you will receive multiple notifications from the ASX. A printed notification mailed to your postal address will confirm the change.

The CHESS statements Portal

There will also be an ASX CHESS Statements Portal registration email – where you will have to establish a username and password plus, an email confirming a change to communication preferences.

Phew … but it’s worth it! Slack Investor suggests you start this process now.

Once your email is registered with the ASX, future holding statements should be emailed. Slack Investor doesn’t even want that – the Broker tally of his shares is fine with him. Slack Investor’s preferred way of interaction will be through the CHESS statements login page – where you can view (or download) your statements.

May 2025 – End of month update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the recently bought US Index S&P 500 and, the FTSE 100.

May has been a good month for UK, US and the Australian Index.

The S&P 500 (+6.1%), the ASX 200 up 3.8% and, the FTSE 100 up 3.3% as the endless tariff fiasco unfolds .

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

GOLD … Not for Slack Investor – and February 2025 – End of Month Update

Goldfinger, the Bond film from 1964, portrays a scene where a woman is covered in gold and dies from ‘skin suffocation’. Slack Investor notes that gold has had a good recent run and hopes that those involved with gold continue to prosper.

Is Gold Good?

A lot of people think so – and, it has performed well lately.

The price of gold exceeded US$2,900 an ounce last week for the first time. Since October 2023, it has risen by more than US$1,000 an ounce. The price is three times higher than it was a decade ago. – _{Tom Stevenson, Fidelity – Livewire, February 2025}

Gold does well as a hedge against inflation and, in times of uncertainty. The chart over the past 10 years looks pretty good.

From Stockspot – Why you should consider gold in your super

Gold is also rare and, besides its valued use in jewellery and ornaments, it is an essential industrial metal for computers, communications equipment, spacecraft, and jet aircraft engines.

All of the gold discovered thus far would fit in a cube that is 23 meters wide on every side. _{– U.S. Geological Survey}

Chris Bryki from Stockspot argues that every investment portfolio should contain gold to even out portfolio performance in uncertain times. Stockspot have even increased their gold exposure, through the GlobalX GOLD ETF, to above 12% in their very successful personalised investment and super funds.

There is no doubt that gold has been successful during market crashes in the past – and it will decrease your portfolio volatility. But, usually, it can also drag the portfolio down when times are good in the markets. Unusually, since 2023, gold has increased greatly at the same time that stock markets have also done well. Something weird is going on!

Gold makes sense for investors that sleep better at night knowing that at least some part of their portfolio is going up during times of market stress. Gold might also help to avoid selling your investments during a downturn – when the shares are undervalued! You could sell the gold for income during a market crash.

Slack Investor has his own plan for these down times – the Stable Income pile.

Does Gold appeal to Slack Investor as an investment?

Firstly, gold would not get a guernsey in his Stable Income pile as it does not produce any income by itself.

Only a Goldsmith Knows the Value of Gold _{– Old Turkish Proverb}

Despite the sound arguments for gold, Slack Investor just can’t bring himself to put gold in the Slack Portfolio – the Investment pile. The big problem he has, is that Slack Investor has no idea whether the current price for gold is a fair reflection of its value – it has had a big run lately – is it overvalued? At least when he is buying stocks, he can have a look at the company’s earnings and get an idea of whether the company is cheap, or expensive, by comparing its projected price to earnings (P/E) ratio.

This is Slack Investor’s difficulty with all non-income producing assets – these include precious metals, artworks and even cryptocurrency – there is no way to determine their actual value. The price of these speculative assets is only defined by what the next person will pay for them. So, none of these types of assets will appear in the Slack Investment Portfolio.

Slack Investor will continue to take his chances with stocks that are growing, predicted to grow further, and producing income. His investment portfolio will be more volatile for not having gold – but, it is the long-term performance that counts the most with Slack Investor.

Slack Investor hopes to never draw down on his investments in the lean years when his stocks are undervalued. He has his Stable Income pile (currently 22% of total retirement funds) to get him through the periods when his Investment pile might go negative. The Stable Income fund target is to earn a little above the inflation rate. The Slack Investment fund has more ambitious goals and the pursuit of growing stocks (without gold) might have more ups and downs – but, so far it’s working!

5-yr Return	10-yr Return	15-yr Return
13.4%	15.7%	14.8%

Slack Investment Portfolio long-term annual compounding average returns. Pre-tax annual average returns till the end FY24.

February 2025 – End of month update

Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

February has continued well for the UK Index, the FTSE 100 is up 1.6 %.

The S&P 500 (-1.4%) has had a bit of a pull back and the ASX 200 is down 4.2%, erasing its January gains.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Financial Year 2024 Full Slack Results

“… nearly all the grandest discoveries of science have been but the rewards of accurate measurement and patient long-continued labour in the minute sifting of numerical results.”
Lord Kelvin (a.k.a. William Thompson) – Eminent 19th Century Scientist

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Like Lord Kelvin, Slack Investor likes to measure things. FY 2024 was another good year for share owners. In the world markets, the FTSE 100 Total Return Index was up 11.4% (last FY up 7.8%). Dividends helped the Australian Accumulation Index to be up 12.2% for the financial year (last FY +10.6%). The S&P 500 Total Return Index is again the top performer – and was up 24.2% (last FY +19.7%) for the same period. All of these Total Return Indices include any accumulated dividends.

Slack Investor has stuck to his strategy of investing with growing companies that have an established earnings record and forward P/E ratios <50 (Mostly!). I expect a bit of volatility in my (mostly “growth”) investment portfolio and I am reassured that, despite the odd negative year in the Slack Investment Portfolio , the dividends and the Stable Income portfolio are doing what they should and keeping Slack Investor with enough cash to “keep the wheels on” the Slack lifestyle.

Slack Portfolio Results FY 2024

All Performance results are before tax. The Slack Portfolio is Slack Investor’s investment portfolio and, due to some lucky stock selections (e.g. ALU and PME both doubled in value FY2024), this was my “best ever” year. I’m glad to report an annual FY 2024 performance of +39.4%. Full yearly results with Australian benchmarks are shown in the table below. However, the portfolio performance in the first 6 weeks of this new FY has brought me back to Earth. Slack Investor realises that only long term results really count.

For property values, Slack Investor is using the Total Return values supplied by CoreLogic. The Total Return is calculated from value change as well as the gross rental yield. I would have preferred calculations that include the net rental yield, but this will have to do. The Total Return is a more realistic figure when comparing real estate returns to stock market total returns, as it treats both asset classes as investments with income coming from rent/dividends.

Although it is hard to match US market growth this year (+24.2%). The Australian Share market Total Return Index (ASX200 Acc) was up 12.2%. The Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF (VDGR), comprising International shares (42%) and Australian Shares (28%), increasing by 11.4%. Inflation is again above Reserve Bank target – with the CPI at +3.8%. The readily available Cash rate of 4.0% has edged above inflation for the first time in 4 years. Cash is important but not a way to grow your investments.

Yearly Performance (%) results since 2010

The Slack Fund yearly Internal Rate of Return (IRR) vs BENCHMARKS. The Median Balanced Fund (41-60% Growth Assets), Vanguard Growth Fund, ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Corelogic Residential Property Home Value (Total Return) Index in both Brisbane and Melbourne, and Cash (Australian Super Cash Fund) and Consumer Price Index (CPI)

5-yr Average Annual Performance

Although I collect yearly figures, the 5 and 10-year compound annual performance gives me a much better idea about how things are really going. Long term results will smooth out any dud (or remarkable!) yearly figures. The Slack Fund is still ahead of most Benchmarks – but running “neck and neck” with Brisbane Residential real estate over a five-year period.

Slack Investor 5-year compound annual rate of return – compared to benchmarks – **Click for better resolution.**

Growth of a $10000 Investment Since 2009

The beauty of compounding with a succession of good performance results can be seen in the chart below showing the growth of an initial investment in June 2009 of $10000.

The rate of growth of $10000 invested by *Slack Investor in FY 2009 – compared to benchmarks – Click for better resolution.*

Slack Fund has exceeded my expectations. Also, the chart shows that investing in either shares or residential property has been a solid way of growing your money over the long term.

10-year compound annual rate of return

The Slack Fund has been around a while and, I am generating some good long term data (10-year compound “rolling” annual rate of return). Over this time frame, the Slack Fund has been performing very well. A 10-year annual rate of return of over 15% – Go Slack Fund! The 10-yr data is shown below in chart and table form.

It is useful to note that, the 10-yr rates of return of the Median Balanced Fund, Vanguard Growth fund, ASX200, and residential property in Brisbane and Melbourne are also great long term investments. These appreciating assets generate a 10-year compound annual rate of return of 6-9% p.a.

From the figures below, although Cash can add stability to a portfolio, Cash as a long term investment, is a poor choice.

The Slack Fund **average 10-yr compound yearly return** vs BENCHMARKS. The Median Balanced Fund (41-60% Growth Assets), Vanguard Growth Fund, ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Corelogic Residential Property Home Value (Total Return) Index in both Brisbane and Melbourne, and Cash (Australian Super Cash Fund) and Consumer Price Index (CPI)

YEAR	SLACK FUND	MEDIAN BAL	VGARD GROWTH	ASX200Acc	RES BRIS	RES MELB	CASH
2019	15.6	8.0	n/a	10.0	5.8	8.5	2.9
2020	15.9	7.0	n/a	7.8	5.5	7.3	2.6
2021	17.9	7.4	n/a	9.3	7.5	8.3	2.2
2022	15.2	7.1	8.1	9.3	9.9	8.7	1.8
2023	14.4	6.4	7.4	8.2	8.6	7.6	1.7
2024	15.7	5.8	7.2	7.7	9.0	6.4	1.8

The Slack Fund average 10-yr compound yearly return vs BENCHMARKS in table form.

FY2024 Nuggets and Stinkers and … July 2024 – End of Month Update

“I think it’s fair to say you can’t predict a straight line to victory. You know, there’ll be good days and bad days along the way.”
Dick Cheney, Vice President to George W. Bush from 2001 to 2009

Dick Cheney had a controversial career, one of his infamous bad days was when he accidentally shot a companion in the head on a quail hunting expedition. Slack Investor is delighted to report that, this year, he didn’t shoot anyone! In fact, FY 2024 was filled with good days to abundance.

The percentage yearly returns quoted in this post include costs (brokerage) but, the returns are before tax. This raw figure can then be compared with other investment returns. I use the incredibly useful Market Screener to analyze the financial data from each company and extract the predicted 2o26 Price/Earnings (PE) Ratio and Return on Equity (ROE). This excellent site allows free access (up to a daily limit) to their analyst’s data, on the financials tab for each stock, once you register with an email address.

Slack Investor Stinkers – FY 2024

Financial year 2024 was generally a “boomer”. All of Slack Investors followed markets (Australia, the UK and the US) have had a pretty solid year … especially the US! However, Slack Investor knows that stinkers are a part of the game, even in good years – and managed to attach himself to a few stinkers along the way.

Global X Battery Tech & Lithium ETF (ACDC) -15%

(ACDC –2024: PE 11, Yield 3.0%) I have owned this ETF for 3 years now – and I think I might have fallen for the “Theme Dream”. Despite some early promise in the “sexy” sector of electric cars and lithium batteries, this ETF has started to disappoint. There has been a string of bad news in the electric vehicle sector with an oversupply of vehicles. Both the EU and the US have slapped large tariffs on the Chinese EV exports – this has further slowed demand. Slack Investor is just holding on and has set a stop loss at $82. Current price is about $83, so I am very close to selling – and moving on.

Coles Group (COL) -8% (Mostly sold Nov 2023)

(COL – Forecast 2026: PE 19, ROE 32%) Coles is where I often buy my groceries and I like the idea that you can regularly inspect your holdings. However, Coles Group are profitable but not really growing. This company does not really belong in my investments pile, so I mostly sold this holding. I might buy some for my stable income pile if there is a future weakness in price.

Computershare (CPU) -5% (Sold April 2024)

(CPU– Forecast 2026: PE 16, ROE 36%) Computershare was a stinker last FY for Slack investor. In retrospect, I can’t believe I bought in again for further punishment. I keep falling for the high ROE (36%) and relatively low PE (16) for a tech stock. Might have been a little early here in folding again – the share price has risen about 12% overall in FY2024.

Slack Investor Nuggets – FY 2024

Nuggets were everywhere this Financial Year. Slack Investor continues to invest in high Return on Equity (ROE) companies with a track record of increasing earnings. Companies with these qualities sometimes behave as “golden nuggets”.

Pro Medicus (PME) +118%

(PME – Forecast 2026: PE 76, ROE 46%) Pro Medicus is a developer and supplier of healthcare imaging software and services to hospitals and diagnostic imaging groups. In 2019, Slack Investor met the CEO and co-founder of Pro Medicus, Dr Sam Hupert. I was impressed by his humility and passion for his great products. I’m obviously glad I bought in – but naturally wish I’d bought more! The very high predicted PE ratio (+76) is worrying but, in the past, product sales have just kept growing above expectations as PME expands into the US.

Altium (ALU) +106% (Sold pending takeover)

(ALU – Forecast 2026: PE 32, ROE 33%) Altium is an Australian based developer and seller of computer software for the design of electronic products worldwide. My ode to this great company expands on why I originally bought it and its great management team. Good luck with the new Japanese owners Renesas. For current holders, I think the cash payment per share is due today (1 August, 2024)

Goodman Group (GMG) +75%

(GMG – Forecast 2026: PE 23, ROE 12%) Goodman Group owns, develops, and manages (mostly industrial) properties all over the world. On a weekly bike ride, I go past a succession of Goodman warehouse properties – and they always seem to be thriving with activity. They even develop data centres that will hopefully be full of machines to manage the AI trend. Glad to be an owner.

Codan (CDA) +54%

(CDA – Forecast 2026: PE 20, ROE 21%) Codan is a technology company that specializes in communications and metal detecting. It is one of Slack investors core holdings that has taken him on what can only be described as a “journey”. A nugget in FY 2021 (+161%), a stinker in FY2022 (-58%) – and now back to a nugget (+54%). What has kept me in the stock was the low debt (generally) increasing earnings, and the high profitability (ROE 21%).

Supply Network (SNL) +54%

(SNL – Forecast 2026: PE 18, ROE 36%) Supply Network are a bus and truck parts distribution company using the Multispares brand. Although there are competitors in the big-vehicle parts business, what sets SNL apart from the rest is their great management and strict adherence to processes and efficiency. They have consistently held a profitability advantage over their rivals. They have maintained a high Return on Equity (ROE) of 36% even as the company has expanded and grown in price.

Alphabet (GOOGL:NASDAQ) +52%

(GOOGL– Forecast 2026: PE 17, ROE 25%) For more good things on this company that is everywhere. High profitability (ROE 25%) and the predicted 2026 PE of 17 makes this still a good buy at current prices – in Slack Investor’s head.

CAR Group (CAR) +52%

(CAR – Forecast 2026: PE 31, ROE 14%) Car Group is a collection of digital marketing vehicle businesses that are now in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand and the United States. The Australian business is still carsales.com. The ROE is slipping below 15%, but happy to hold on for now.

REA Group (REA) +39%

(REA – Forecast 2026: PE 41, ROE 32%) Like Carsales.com, REA has dominated the space left by the old newspaper classifieds in selling real estate in Australia and has continued to expand overseas. A high PE ratio (41) but while projected Return on Equity (ROE) remains high (32%), this is OK.

Wesfarmers (WES) +39%

(WES – Forecast 2026: PE 27, ROE 33%) Wesfarmers is Australia’s largest conglomerate. Great retail outfit (e.g. Bunnings) and chemical manufacturer. High profitability (ROE 33%) but like Coles, seems low on earnings growth lately.

Some honourable mentions to some top results this year that didn’t make the nuggets. BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (NDQ) +32%; BetaShares Global Quality Leaders ETF) +27%; BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) +26%; Dicker Data Limited (DDR.AX) +26%. A special mention also to a recent buy, Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) +23% in two months!

Slack Investor Total SMSF investments performance – FY 2024 July 2024 end of Month Update

Slack investor has just two piles of funds for his retirement – the Stable Income pile (Cash and Conservative) and an Investments pile. The Stable income represents just 25% of total retirement funds. I used to rebalance each of my piles after every year, but the stable pile now has enough in it that, together with dividends from my investments, could supply me with enough living expenses to last out an extended (3-yr) bad run of the stock markets – without having to sell stocks. The stable pile produces a moderate return of about 5%. The Investments pile is much more fun and the figures below represent (before tax) performance of my investments pile only.

After a difficult 2022, a solid 2023, some very good fortune was had with a ripper FY2024. Some fortuitous selections with growth stocks have really paid off (Thank you PME and ALU). In the Australian superannuation scene, the median growth fund (61 to 80% in growth assets) returned +9.1% in FY 2024. The ASX 200 chart shows a gradual climb after a shaky start for the financial year.

A record result for Slack Investor in his growth investments portfolio. His preliminary total SMSF performance looks like coming in at around +39% for the financial year. Including the relatively low returns from my stable income pile (~5%) – overall, my retirement funds grew about 30%. A very good year!

For Slack Investor, the 5-yr performance is a more useful way of measuring – as it takes out the fluctuations of yearly returns. At the end of FY 2024, the Slack Portfolio has a compounding 5-yr annual return of around 13%.

July 2024 – end of Month Update

The new financial year has started off positively for Slack Investor markets. The ASX 200 + 4.2%; FTSE 100 +2.5%; and S&P 500 +1.1%. He remains IN for all index positions.

I have taken the opportunity to adjust upwards the stop losses on all followed index markets. The prices have crept up to more than 15% above their old stop losses. See Index pages for details.

All Index pages (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index) and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes.

Where to go fishing? – Part 1 – Profitablity and Growth

A Day’s Fishing (circa 1923) – Edward Henry Potthast

The obvious answer is … where there are fish.

Slack Investor is always on the lookout for growth companies … particularly when he is on the BUY! Since retirement, I haven’t had much chance to be on the Buy side of a transaction lately – as there isn’t that flow of fresh new money coming into the coffers from employment. Pre-retirement, any new money would flow into the cash reserves of my Super (SMSF -Self Managed Super Fund). When a sufficient amount of cash had built up, I would look around for some company shares to buy.

However, with the expected inflow of a bit of cash with the impending sale of Altium, I am starting to look around for suitable receivers of Slack Investor loot. Slack Investor is “Going Fishing”. The first thing I want in my pond is profitable companies – but I also want them to have a record of growth. In the second part of this fishing series, I will try to narrow things down to companies that I would actually like to buy.

Measures of Profitability

Slack Investor likes a company, that he invests in, to not only make a profit – but to use its shareholder funds in the best way to make a profit. There are many ways to look at profitability, but Slack Investor is pretty lazy in this regard and you won’t find him forensically gazing over profit and loss statements from a company report. I prefer couple of simple ratios to get an overview – I am no expert accountant.

Return on Equity (ROE)

ROE = Net Income/Shareholder Equity

I have always used Return on Equity (ROE) as a simple measure to give an idea on how a company is growing. Strictly speaking, the ROE is more a measure of profitability and how well it grows each dollar of company funds.

The higher the ROE, the more efficient a company’s management is at generating income and growth from its equity financing.
Investopedia

This metric is very easy to find in market aggregator sites such as Yahoo.com, Morningstar, or Investing.com. For a deep dive, I prefer Marketscreener.com – which has the advantage of showing Predicted ROE for the next few years on each companies financial page. One of the problems with ROE is that, companies with debt can present an inflated ROE.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

ROIC = Net Profit (After Tax)/Average Invested Capital

The purest way of looking at how good a company is in converting shareholders money into profit is the ROIC. Unfortunately, this figure is harder to come by on the generic financial aggregator sites. This ratio is superior to the ROE as it accounts for the debt levels of a company – as the Average Invested Capital is the Average Equity – Average Debt.

Measure of Growth

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

A quick way of determining if a company is growing is the CAGR. It is often constructed from past , data. The “Compound Annual Growth Rate”—is the annualized rate of growth in the value of the Earnings, or Revenue, over a stated period. The maths is a bit complicated and best done on a spreadsheet or a search around the financial sites. I found limited CAGR data for stocks at Morningstar and finbox.com

CAGR is defined as the annualized growth rate in the value of a financial metric – such as revenue and EBITDA – or an investment across a specified period.
Wall Street Prep

Putting together Profitability and Growth

Fortunately there are some really nice blokes in the financial world that share the burden of responsibility to educate people about the share market as well as operating a profitable business. A shout out to Owen Raszkiewicz of the RASK Group. A great place to start your financial education with Owen is his Australian Finance podcast that he co-hosts with Kate Campbell. Slack Investor will often tune in to their discussions.

Below is a table Owen prepared in August 2023 that ranks Australian stocks in terms of their profitability (ROIC – Return on Invested Capital – Column F). He also shows, in the last column, the stock’s historical growth rate for the 5 years 2017-2022.

From Rask Media – ASX’s best companies published August 2023 – ranked in order of ROIC- Click on image to enlarge

This is a great place to start fishing, metrics for profitability and growth in one place. Pro Medicus is standing out here – High profitability (ROIC 55.48%) and high historical growth (5-yr CAGR 24.22%). A complete picture needs both of these metrics. For example, Woolworths has a high profitability (ROIC 41.28%) but is laggard in historical growth (5-yr CAGR 2.10%).

The next article in this series will look at how Slack Investor narrows these stocks down and then screens them further with the P/E Ratio to try to make sure that each potential buying stock is not overpriced.

2023 – Hope You Were Strapped In … and January 2024 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor usually just assesses stock market returns at the end of the financial year. However, calendar year 2023 was some ride.

The 2023 ASX 200 Chart

For the 2023 calendar year, the ASX 200 Index started at 7020, and ended up at 7590 – a 12-mth increase of about 8% – but, on the way, it fell to a year low of 6751 – a temporary fall of 3.8%.

Of course, If you did not look at the charts daily, these fluctuations would mean nothing. If you ony looked at the Australian Index at yearly intervals, 2023 would probably bring some joy. As well as the overall 8% gain for the year, when you include dividends, the ASX 200 Index total return for calendar year 2023 was 12.2%. The ASX “All Ordinaries” Index (Tracking Australia’s largest 500 listed companies) had a total return of 13.0%.

Slack Investor will again emphasize the joy of investing and mostly doing nothing – and trying to focus on longer term returns. One of the best summary charts I have seen for a while that shows calendar year returns has just been updated and published by Ashley Owen. Ashley uses the “All Ordinaries” Index rather than the ASX 200 Index- as there is more historical data available for comparison.

Total ASX “All Ordinaries” calendar year returns – with the the last 5 years highlighted – From Ashley Owen – Owen Analytics – (Click to Enlarge)

The first thing that jumps out in this chart is the amount of “Green” positive years vs the “Red” negative years. In 78% of calendar years, ASX Index returns are positive. The overall average total return since 1900 for the Australian “All Ordinaries” Index is 11.7%.

Inflation has been the topic of the day lately and Owen has kindly provided his calendar year chart in terms of Real Returns for the All Ordinaries Index – The total return minus the inflation rate (Consumer Price Index (CPI)). A certain amount of cash is worth holding to for liquidity – so that you can avoid selling stocks in a market downturn. Although cash can iron out some of the stock market fluctuations, being invested in cash is not a protection from inflation.

Total ASX “All Ordinaries” calendar year “Real” (minus inflation) returns – with the the last 5 years highlighted – From Ashley Owen – Owen Analytics – (Click to Enlarge)

Adjusted for cpi increases, the overall average “Real” total return since 1900 for the Australian “All Ordinaries” Index is 7.9%. Slack Investor is willing to put up with the volatility of share markets for an average “after inflation” return like this.

For financial independence and as a hedge against inflation, it is important to own growth assets – such as the Australian Share market. Sure, there will be the occasional negative annual returns ahead … but let’s not worry about this while the Australian stock market is rising. Long-term overall results are the important thing.

January 2024 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

After a big Christmas Rally, things have settled down a bit with modest gains for the ASX 200 (+1.2%) and the S&P 500(+1.6%). The FTSE 100 had a small fall ( -1.3%)

It was time to adjust the stop loss for the S&P 500 as the current value is over 15% greater than the stop loss. Slack Investor has long believed the US market is overvalued and, while enjoying the journey, is happy to have his stop loss a little tighter. It is difficult to do the adjustment on the monthly chart, so I had a look at the weekly chart for the S&P 500 below. I am looking for a dip in the chart that represents a “Higher low”. The new stop loss now stands at 4682 – only 3% below the current value.

Extract from the S&P 500 weekly chart – From Incrediblecharts.com

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).