Month: August 2017

Measurement … the Sweet Science

Lord Kelvin (1824-1907)from Wikimedia

 

“….when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind…”

 

Lord Kelvin, a Science “Hall of Fame” member was right … Particularly so when it comes to your investments. As well as some notable scientific discoveries, including  the invention of the absolute temperature scale which defines the lowest possible temperature – at which atoms stop moving (-273.15C) – The wise Lord Kelvin showed a respect for measurement … and the nerd in me remembers the graffiti homage from Physics Lab toilet doors …

Absolute Zero is Cool!

Slack Investor takes the measurement of investment performance very seriously and puts some effort into doing it right. Slack Investor is old enough to recall the famous case of the Beardstown Ladies Investment Club – a club that published a book in 1994 that claimed a market-beating investment performance from a group of talented, but amateur, investors from a small town in Illinois, USA.

From Source

The Beardstown Ladies are a group that are still going, a 14-woman investment club that hit the financial headlines with their “The Beardstown Ladies’ Common-Sense Investment Guide” which included a seemingly astounding financial performance that beat the best of Wall Street with their investment returns of 23.4% pa between 1984 and 1993.

This gave other amateur investors a real kick and did wonders for their book sales. It was far better than the 14.9% gained by the index S & P 500 and almost twice the 12.6% return of the average US stock mutual fund.

However, after an independent audit, according to the LA Times, in 1998, their was a recalculation of their the performance figures amid questions about accuracy. The ladies, sadly,  have an audited revised portfolio return of a 9.1% a year – a great effort … but lagging the index!

The problem was, the lovely ladies from Beardstown had innocently forgotten to account for their cash flows into the fund (Contributions) and these had been added into their portfolio performance to give an inflated figure. Their book is still for sale … and they have published four others … The US loves winners(?)!

The Slack Investor message is to not always believe what you read … wait for the independent audits …  and, like Lord Kelvin, to avoid “meagre and unsatisfactory knowledge”, take some time in your measurement of portfolio performance. More of this next month …

July 2017 – End of Month Update … and Long Term Returns!

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

A steady month for the ASX and gains for the UK market (0.7%) and the US Market (2.3%) – It must be the “Mooch” Effect.  I am sad to see him go … In a circus you need heaps of clowns!

Chant West are a superannuation consultancy and research firm that release a trove of data on how superannuation is rolling along in Australia. The have excelled themselves in a very timely media release. outlining that this is the 8th financial year in a row of median gains for Australian Super “Growth” funds. They define growth funds as funds that invest 60-80% of their investments in growth assets such as shares and property. Their results for the past 25 years for Australian Super Funds is presented below.

Median Australian Growth Super Financial Year Returns (%) – net of fees and taxes – from Chant West

 

 

Despite the worries of the world, this last financial year, the median of Australian growth funds achieved a 10.7% return and some of the low fee funds  discussed in the last post, such as HostPlus and Sunsuper achieved FY17 returns of 13.2% and 12.4% respectively in a year where the safety of cash could only yield 1.8%.

The five-year period up till now have been boom times for the share market. There will be high fives and bonuses all round for the suits that control your funds. This has been a good investing year and you should rejoice at the returns shown in your super statements when they are sent to you soon – and reflect upon the pitiful returns that you would have got if you had your super invested in a bank account.

But, it is a good reminder that not all years represent gravy for growth funds and it is the nature of these assets that their will be some yearly fluctuations. Slack Investor’s feeble memory is strong on the returns of the years 2008 and 2009 where the Global Financial Crisis caused asset prices and market returns to crash. I can remember many who lamented that this compulsory super business was a costly rort – it was tough to watch your retirement savings shrink even though money was taken out of your wages each week.

Slack Investor has a soft spot for the bard

“Ay, to the proof, as mountains are for winds, that shakes not, though they blow perpetually.”  ― William Shakespeare, The Taming of the Shrew

So “shake not” dear investors … think long term and think growth … and despite the occasional disappointment … you will be rewarded! Compound interest will be doing its work on your savings in all those years that are blue in the above image – It is only fair that you have got to give compound interest the occasional year off – for recuperation!

I have updated all Index pages and charts to reflect the end of month data. .