FY 2026 Nuggets and Stinkers and July 2026 – End of Month Update

‘We must accept finite disappointment, but we must never lose infinite hope.’
Martin Luther King

Slack Investor experienced plenty of disappointment this financial year. On reflection, most of it was self induced. He was dazzled by some of the growth projections that he found on Market Screener – and forgetting that these are just analyst forecasts – and sometimes not achieved. As a result, he got involved with too many early stage companies that experienced regulatory failures – or just fell short of expectations. This year, there was also the AI scare that put the shivers up owners of software and healthcare stocks. These sectors could be vulnerable to cheaper AI interventions that might affect future incomes.

This post is just one part of the annual review of the Slack Portfolio. The percentage yearly returns quoted in this post include costs (brokerage) and dividends but, the returns are before tax. These raw figures can then be compared with other investment returns.

Slack Investor uses the incredibly useful Market Screener to analyze the financial data from each company. This excellent site allows free access (up to a daily limit) to analysts’ data. Once you register with an email address on their site, you can use the financials tab to get information for each stock.

Slack Investor uses forward-looking numbers – so, sometimes, things can go wrong. He extracted the predicted 2028 Price/Earnings (PE) Ratio and Return on Equity (ROE) and average forecast revenue growth for the financial years 2027 and 2028. He usually requires that the forecast Earnings Per Share (EPS ) growth will be greater than 15%. He then condenses all this information into one number, the Slack Ratio. This is the ratio of forecast ROE/forecast PE.

The Slack Ratio, is a way to make things easy for Slack Investor’s limited brain. This ratio is still ‘experimental’ and used to differentiate between stocks. The higher Slack Ratio, the better. Slack Investor generally likes the Slack Ratio to be above 0.7.

Slack Investor Stinkers – FY 2026

Financial year 2026 was again big on volatilty. Slack Investor knows that stinkers are a part of the game, even in good years. Unfortunately, he managed to attach himself to a multitude of stinkers this year. Slack Investor managed to be in some unfashionable sectors – and, in hindsight, also made some bad individual company selections. Again, this is just part of the game.

Botanix Pharma (BOT) -60%

(BOT – Forecast 2028: PE 3, ROE 28%, Av. Growth 30+%, Slack Ratio 9.3). Slack Investor entered the murky and volatile world of Biotechs with a small stake (0.2% of portfolio) in this Australia-based dermatology company. Their topical gel (Sofdra) is used to treat excessive underarm sweat. This has to be Slack Investor’s weirdest purchase – and he was sold on the ‘sizzle’, not the steak. The company is ‘expected’ to be profitable in 2028. However, the market has some doubts about this. Slack Investor bought on the good numbers (above) at $0.35, sold in November 2025 at $0.14. Latest price $0.02 – A humiliation!–and a lesson in getting involved with speculative stocks.

CSL (CSL) -50%

(CSL – Forecast 2028: PE 12, ROE 18%, Av. Growth 30+%, Slack Ratio 1.5). CSL is a big holding for Slack Investor (6.3 % of portfolio). CSL was a Stinker in FY 2025, but they have continued to spend on Research & Product Development at levels around 10% of revenue. This should be a good thing for future earnings. However, a series of earnings downgrades and management changes have tested market confidence in the company. Slack Investor realizes that CSL is not the growth machine that it once was – but it still is one of the world’s leading biotechnology companies. At this stage, he is sticking with CSL and is buoyed by some recent price rises –but he feels that his loyalty has not been rewarded and would have no problems in selling his stake if a better opportunity presented.

REA Group (REA) -41%

(REA – Forecast 2028: PE 24, ROE 33%, Av. Growth 15+%, Slack Ratio 1.3). This real estate powerhouse has been part of the Slack Portfolio for a long time and it too might be losing its mojo as a growth superstar. Property is cyclic in nature and this FY there has been a softening in property listings and therefore revenue. The market quickly bailed out. Slack Investor has the long view on this one. Future numbers (above) still look reasonable and he is prepared to ride this one out.

Telix Pharmaceutical (TLX) -38%

(TLX – Forecast 2028: PE 32, ROE 9%, Av. Growth 30+%, Slack Factor 0.3). This company develops and markets radio-pharmaceutical products that are used to treat cancers in a precise fashion. TLX is less than 1% of the Slack portfolio and is his most speculative stock as the company is not predicted to be profitable till 2027. FY 2026 has been tough on Telix with some regulatory hurdles and some other trouble with US authorities. These problems seem to be mosly overcome and the share price has risen – but there is still some risk. The ROE is low, but the projected growth is over 100%. If the positive momentum continues, Slack Investor will add to his position.

Cochlear (COH) -35%

(COH – Forecast 2028: PE 20, ROE 18%, Av. Growth 25%, Slack Ratio 0.9). COH is a great Australian company but it has had a shocker of a year with a series of earnings downgrades. In a counter-cyclic move, Slack Investor bought 5 months ago at about $190 after the first downgrade announcement. Mistake! These downgrades seem to usually occur in bunches. At the current price of $120, it seems good value. Will stick with this one and try to learn from this error.

Wisetech Global (WTC) -34%

(WTC – Forecast 2028: PE 18, ROE 17%, Av. Growth 30+%, Slack Ratio 0.9). WTC has great logistics software that is the industry standard. The underlying business is solid and was unfairly dumped during the AI scare. However, the real problems have been with the scandals associated with the founder and executive chairman Richard White. Mr White has recently resigned and this has triggered a share price recovery. The recovery is going well and Slack Investor is considering adding to his share parcel in WTC.

Slack Investor also went backwards with many of his other holdings. Car Group (CAR) -29%; Technology One (TNE) -27%, though it was a nugget last FY +124%; Plenti Group (PLT) -24% – What was Slack Investor thinking?

Slack Investor Nuggets – FY 2026

Nuggets are a blessing in any portfolio. Fortunately, this Financial Year, there were some bewdies! Slack Investor continues to invest in high Return on Equity (ROE) companies with a track record of increasing earnings. If expectations are met, companies with these qualities sometimes behave as ‘golden nuggets’.

Codan (CDA) +122%

(CDA – Forecast 2028: PE 32, ROE 28%, Av. Growth 15%, Slack Ratio 0.9). Codan is a technology company that specializes in communications and metal detecting. What a great company – also a nugget in FY 2025(+75%)! It is one of Slack Investor’s core holdings. CDA has had a checkered past – a nugget in FY 2021 (+161%), a stinker in FY 2022 (-58%), a nugget in 2024 (+54%), and again a nugget (+75%) in 2025. What has kept me in the stock was its low debt, (generally) increasing earnings, and the high profitability (ROE 28%).

SKS Technologies (SKS) +73%

(SKS – Forecast 2028: PE 15, ROE 63%, Av. Growth 30+%, Slack Ratio 4.2). A recent purchase, SKS is an electrical and networking service company that delivers ‘advanced technology solutions’. It has recently landed big contracts for data centres and has a further upstream tender pipeline of $1.25B AUD. These ‘contract for income’ companies need constant surveillance but Slack Investor was at a Wilson Asset Management seminar this year and a speaker impressed him with his ‘Picks and Shovels’ approach to investing in the new wave of AI and Large Language Models (LLM’s) … and he did, and would like to buy more!

RPM Global Holdings (RPM) +71%

(RPM – Forecast 2027: PE 154, ROE 53%, Av. Growth 38%, Slack Factor 13). RPM is a mining services provider that had a happy association with Slack Investor. There was a takeover early this year by the NYSE-listed big company – Caterpillar. Slack Investor had to bow out – but with money in his pocket!

Alphabet (GOOGL:NASDAQ) +36%

(GOOGL– Forecast 2028: PE 20, ROE 22%, Av. Growth 25%, Slack Ratio 1.1). What a powerhouse. Alphabet continues to have high profitability (ROE 22%). There are some concerns over reduced earnings in 2027, AI spend, and competition – but his everywhere company keeps surging ahead. Happy Owner.

Vanguard Asia (Ex-Japan) ETF (VAE) +30%

(VAE – Market Screener Data unavailable. VAE is one of Slack Investor’s core holdings – providing exposure to Asian Markets. After a lacklustre few years, it has finally started to provide the growth from Asia that Slack Investor envisaged. A Long-term hold.

Some honourable mentions to some top results this year that didn’t quite make the nuggets. Megaport (MP1)+27% and Coles (COL) +19%. COL is now, not in the Slack Portfolio, but in his Stable Income portfolio.

July 2026 – end of Month Update

The new financial year has started off positively for the Australian and UK markets. The ASX 200 +2.3%; FTSE 100 +3.5%. The S&P 500 is taking a well-earned breather and has had a flat month (-0.1%). He remains IN for all index positions.

All Index pages (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index) and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes.

Slack Greetings from Cambridge, UK – A busy day punting on the River Cam.

Slack Investor Report Card 2026 … and Markets Financial Year 2026

Slack investor generally likes to avoid making predictions. He is just stumbling on in this investing world, using a bit of financial discipline to try and make more good calls than bad. The whole point of this blog is to highlight that you only need to be ‘mostly right’ to be a successful investor.

It has been a couple of years since Slack Investor has had a look in the ‘room of mirrors’ – at some of the things said in this blog. A bit of reflection is good for the soul. Some of my buys and sells will be mentioned in next month’s ‘Nuggets and Stinkers’, but there have been a couple of issues nagging at my small brain. This is the type of report card that you may have difficulty to show to your parents.

01/07/2023 – Advice for a young man (July 2024 Report Card Revisited)

Three years ago (2023), Slack Investor was flattered when his nephew asked him for some advice on starting a stock portfolio. Converting hard earned cash from part-time jobs into the risky area of the stock market takes some admirable gumption – his nephew was 14 at the time. Slack Investor found some suitable ‘safe’ stocks (he thought!) in his own portfolio. He deliberately avoided the more speculative part of the stock world – as he wanted his nephew to have a good experience owning stocks. Shown below, is the basket of stocks that Slack Investor recommended. A collection of well known, growing companies that were not outrageously over priced.

The first review of this portfolio was at the end of FY 2024 and Slack Investor was secretly pleased that the average 1-yr growth of the portfolio was 30.9%. He prematurely gave himself 9/10. Things have changed in the two years after that initial review. Let’s just say that things didn’t go as expected (CSL down 37.7% – Ouch!). Overall, the portfolio fell 2.8% in the subsequent two years..

The basket of stocks that Slack Investor thought would be suitable for a young person starting out in the world of investing in 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is shown for the 1st year, the next two years, and for the whole 3 year period so far.

Another lesson in hubris for Slack Investor. These figures do not include dividends. In hindsight, Slack Investor would have been better off recommending more diverse products such as ETF’s for the ASX 200, S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100. However, Slack Investor thinks that you learn a lot more about the stock market when you are invested at the company level.

Over 3 years, the overall Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for this recommended portfolio was a lackluster 6.2%. Slack Investor hopes that his nephew is not too disheartened and will keep an interest in shares. All of these companies may not be the growth machines that they used to be – but they are still solid businesses. There are already a few signs of a comeback in the punished shares (CSL, CAR, REA).

There is a lesson here. Sometimes things don’t go as planned in the share market. Be prepared to change strategy if your shares are really on the stink. The share market can be cruel. Be diversified and take a long term view.

A very average effort Slack Investor – 3/10; Nephew – ?/10 (Definitely disappointed in his Uncle – but hang in there!).

01/07/2025 – Growth Professionals

Slack Investor was talking about things that he admires and looking at futere ways to handle his bucket of investments when he doesn’t want to manage it himself. He started spraying on about the Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund ETF (ASX: HYGG). HYGG has the most excellent long term performance record over 5 and 10-yr periods. They have consistently beaten benchmarks with annual returns averaging over 15%.

Since posting, HYGG performance for FY 2026 is a not so good -2.5%. Again, only long term performance counts. Sometimes good investors just go through lean periods. Slack Investor has faith in the HYGG team, and himself. Good companies generally do well over the long term.

Slack Investor is easily led by long term performance. Must stop talking in class; 5/10.

Financial Year 2026

A quick review of how the Slack followed markets fared in FY 2026. The Total Return amounts shown for the financial year (1 July 2025 – 1 July 2026) are from Investing.com and they include dividends. Slack Investor has noted that these Total Net Return amounts sometimes get updated and the figures below are just approximations.

ASX 200

After a solid 2025, FY 2026 could be described as a financial year that is really not going anywhere for the ASX 200 – the ASX 200 Net Total Return ended up 3.8%.

FTSE 100

Things were more robust for the UK Index. When accumulated dividends are re-invested, the FTSE 100 Total Return was up 18.5%.

S&P 500

The mighty US of A, has done it again. When accumulated dividends are re-invested, the S&P 500 Total Return was up an amazing 20.9%.

The Slack Portfolio 2026 – Preliminary results

Lean times for Slack Investor this financial year. His portfolio includes many healthcare and Software as a Service (SaaS) stocks, that were recently beaten up. Investors were worried about the effects of AI on future revenues.

Slack Investor preliminary FY 2026 results – a negative 1.0 %. At some stages this year, my account was almost 10% out the back door.

The only consolation is that Slack Investor knows that only long-term results count.

Easily distracted. A poor effort for FY 2026 Slack Investor. Needs improvement to reach his full potential – 3/10.

Slack Greetings from Dinan, Brittany, France. The French have a way of enjoying life and preserving their culture that is to be admired.

Nice Shorts … and May 2026 – (Early) End of Month Update

Slack Investor is a big fan of the colourful short for aquatic activities and, as a result, Ms Slack Investor is glad that winter is approaching. However, he is not generally a fan of investing in a shorted stock. He has learned this lesson the hard way – on a few prevous occasions.

Short selling is a technique used to profit from a fall in the price of a stock. It is a method where you sell first, and buy later – if the price of the stock drops then you are selling for a higher price than you are buying resulting in a profit. – Shortman

A company might be on the short selling list because there may be doubts about the underlying business. Or, more commonly, the business is OK but the share price has outpaced earnings – the price has gone up well ahead of earnings and the current Price/Earnings (PE) ratio is way too high.

Luckily, there are websites that track this short selling activity on the ASX. Shortman is one of the most comprehensive. Slack Investor did have a dabble into the short market in his early investment life but he thought it wasn’t a natural fit for his game – as he is an eternal optimist.

Also, the ‘short’ market can be manipulated. There is evidence that large US hedge funds have previously spread bad news about some ASX stocks in order to use shorts to profit from falling prices. As a result, Slack Investor now sticks to the ‘long’ market where he buys stocks and hope they go UP!

When a stock has a high short interest, it means a meaningful portion of the available float has been borrowed and sold by traders betting the share price will fall. In simple terms, it is the market’s aggregate bearish view expressed with real money on the line. – _{StocksDownUnder}

Most of the time, it is a good idea to avoid stocks that are heavily shorted – where a good percentage of the market thinks these stocks are going down in price. It usually doesn’t make much sense to swim against the current. Ideally, what you really want, is to own a company where others in the market also want to invest. This sets up a scenario where the stock price rises.

Top Shorted Stocks

At the 26th May 2026, the top 15 shorted stocks on the ASX by aggregate percentage with their weekly change in shorting interest. The short list data is prepared by the ASX and has a 5-day delay – shortman.com.au

Slack Investor has a small position in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (~1% of investment portfolio). Alarmingly, 14.83% of the stock on issue is owned by short sellers. He neglected to look the stock up on Shortman prior to purchase. This could be a mistake!

Therefore, this play carries quite a bit of risk. Slack Investor was carried away with the power of the ‘Wedgie’. The short sellers are betting that future revenue predictions where Market Screener shows the PE declining from its current astronomical value of 750 in 2026 to a manageble 33 in 2028 – will not happen!

On the plus side, TLX on track to meet 2026 revenue forecasts and the shorts have started to decline (weekly change down 0.28%). At this stage, he is optimistic that the tide may turn. But, if the price drops sharply at one of the weekend reviews, Slack Investor will have to bail and hand another victory to those pesky ‘shorters’.

May 2026 – (Early) End of Month Update

Slack Investor has gone early for this post as he is off to his old ‘stomping ground’, Far North Queensland, for a few weeks. He will be taking his colourful shorts and remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

The ASX 200 (-0.2%) was flat so far this month. The FTSE 100 (+1.1%) and the S&P 500 (+4.3%) have had a positive month so far. The US Index (S&P 500) has been so bouyant that it needed its stop loss moved upwards. Prices were 15% above the previous value. The new US stop loss was difficult to find and Slack investor had to go to the daily charts to find a sensible low point to put the stop loss. He moved it up to the new ‘higher low’ of 7046.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

An Abundance of Wedgies

Slack Investor does love the ‘the Wedgie’ chart pattern – where the share price emerges from a wedge-shaped decline. He noticed it appeared recently with a few stocks (TLX, NDQ, TNE, PME) and this ‘breaking of a long-term downtrendline’ is usually a good sign of a potential stock price recovery. The chart pattern ‘the Wedgie’ was first discussed by Slack Investor back in 2019 and he has done a small-scale analysis on whether it works 1-year on. His conclusion, yes, mostly!

The top of the wedge downtrend line should be drawn for a period of at least 3 months (preferably 6 months) and connect at least 2 (and preferably 3) descending high points. _{– Slack Investor}

Weekly price charts for REA Group (REA), Megaport (MP1), IPH Ltd (IPH), Goodman Group (GMG), Car Group (CAR) and the ASX listed Greyscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). The price bars are emerging from the wedge-shaped downtrend.

Slack Investor has used the ‘Wedgie’ as a buy signal to top up his holdings in TLX, NDQ, PME, GMG, IPH and MP1. Of course, he also checked Market Index to see that the stock had predicted earnings growth, good return on equity (ROE) and the predicted PE Ratio was not too high. Slack Investor has learned the hard way that these predictions don’t always come true (e.g. CSL) – but, he has to start somewhere.

Slack Investor will report back in a year’s time to see how these stocks fared. He included (above) the ASX listed Greyscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) – not because he is an investor … but, just for sport.

CSL Dumpster Fire

It brings no joy to Slack Investor to discuss his own failings. But, it is part of investing and all investors will have a similar story. Emotion comes into this as CSL was one of the first things that I invested in – way back in 2010 when it was around $30! He has bought more shares along the way. The most recent purchase was at $282 (Ouch!). CSL was his first ’10-bagger’ and it gained a special place in his heart when it reached the dizzying heights of over $300. It is now under $100.

CSL has delivered a succession of earnings misses and guidance downgrades that, one by one, have stripped away the premium investors assigned to the ASX’s most trusted name. _{– Carl Capolinga, Livewire}

The weekly price chart for CSL since 2006 – Incredible Charts

Slack Investor has always taken a look at CSL after each of the 3 earnings downgrades and price slumps since 2025. He does this by going to the financial page of CSL on Market Index. Each time, he has convinced himself by looking at the analysts earnings growth projections that a recovery is imminent, and he has not sold. Sadly, the bad news of earnings not meeting forecasts has continued for 18 months.

In investing, the investment decision may be right … but the timing wrong. Or, sometimes bad things just happen. The best investors seem to be able to sense this – and are more ruthless in getting out of a stock than Slack Investor.

He was not alone in thinking the CSL price would recover. The table below shows Broker analyst predicted consensus rating and targets after each reporting season downgrade. The consensus was a BUY rating after each price slump. Ahh well … Slack Investor has only modest aims – mostly right over the long-term.

Market Index Broker Consensus vs CSL – July 2024 to Present (8 May, 2026). – Is CSL the ASX’s biggest ever blue chip disaster?

In hindsight, Slack Investor would have been much better off selling after the first (or second, or third) earnings downgrade and waiting for the ‘Wedgie’ recovery. However, Slack Investor is a complex mix of attributes and foibles … sometimes the foibles win! He still holds his CSL shares.

The ‘Wedgie’ is Back!

Slack Investor is delighted to report that the ‘Wedgie’ has returned. The ‘Wedgie’ is a chart pattern that is less entertainingly called the ‘breaking a long-term downtrendline’. Looking for chart patterns can be confusing and belongs to the ‘dark art’ world of technical analysis. However, Slack Investor has some faith in the ‘Wedgie’. The chart pattern was first discussed by Slack Investor back in 2019 and he has done a small-scale analysis on whether it works 1-yr on. His conclusion, yes, mostly!

The top of the wedge downtrend line should be drawn for a period of at least 3 months (preferably 6 months) and connect at least 2 (and preferably 3) descending high points. _{– Slack Investor}

Telix Pharma (TLX.AX) weekly chart showing the ‘Wedgie’ in blue and the price bars breaking out of the ‘Wedgie’ – incrediblecharts.com

There is a reason why I think it works. Firstly, there is a long-term decline in price, usually because of some bad news in reporting season. Then there comes a point when the market starts thinking that things have gone too far … the stock is relatively cheap … and people start buying the stock again. Slack Investor likes owning stocks that other people want. The price has a real reason to increase.

It brings some pain to Slack Investor to revisit the chart above as Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX.AX) has been one of his biggest losers this financial year. He should have got out much sooner! But, to Slack Investor’s credit, he will try to judge this case without hard feelings – as the breakout from the downtrend looks to be quite strong.

Naturally, having been burnt once on TLX, he revisits the important numbers from Market Screener Finance. There are a number of traits that Slack Investor looks for before investing in a company. A good summary can be found here with the definitions of the Slack Factor and Slack Ratio. As a rule of thumb, Slack Investor likes the Slack Ratio to be greater than 0.7 and the Slack Factor to be greater than 10. For TLX, the Slack Ratio is below this – but I have bought a parcel of shares anyway on account of the strong projected annual growth (greater than 100% p.a.). Note: for all his Slack Factor calculations he limits the projected growth to 30% p.a. to try to avoid the far too heroic forecasts.

Due to past disapointments, he will be keeping a close eye on TLX but the recent regulatory hurdles for their products seem to have been mostly cleared. Slack Investor is heartened by the recently announced collaboration deal with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: REGN).

The ‘Wedgie’ below for NDQ says it was time for Slack Investor to also enter the NASDAQ 100 again via the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NDQ.AX). I like being involved with the 100 largest tech companies in the US. This index really aligns with innovation and growth. There are similar ‘Wedgie’ outbreaks on some of Slack Investor favourite companies – PME and TNE.

Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NDQ.AX) weekly chart showing the ‘Wedgie’ in blue and the price bars breaking out of the ‘Wedgie’ – incrediblecharts.com

Sitting

Similar patterns are beginning to show on my weekly review of the charts of stocks in the Slack Portfolio. Slack Investor also looks at stocks that he would like in the portfolio that may have got caught in a downtrend – and have recently shown signs of positive momentum. Of course, with the ‘Orange Buffoon’ still in a powerful position – anything could happen! But this won’t stop me from investing in good companies.

“You don’t make money by trading, you make it by sitting.”
_{― Fred McAllen, Charting and Technical Analysis}

CAR Group (CAR.AX) weekly chart showing the ‘Wedgie’ in blue and the price bars **hopefully breaking out of the ‘Wedgie’ soon**. – incrediblecharts.com

Slack Investor is patiently sitting with a bit of cash and hopes to take advantage of any further ‘Wedgie’ opportunities that present themselves. In addition to CAR, the ‘Wedgie’ is in its pre-breakout form for companies with prospects such as WTC, GMG, REA, SNL and XRO.

Slack Portfolio Surgery – February 2026 End of Month Update

Robert Liston operating. Painting by Ernest Board of Bristol (1877-1934) – Wikimedia Commons

The leg amputation depicted above was supposedly done in under 30 seconds. Dr Liston not only managed to kill the patient (Sepsis), but one of his assistants (Sepsis) – and also one of the audience (shock). A 300% mortality rate! Slack Investor hopes for a better outcome after some recent portfolio surgery.

SaaS-pocalypse

The ‘SaaS-pocalypse’, a trending term to describe the recent and dramatic sell-off in global Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) shares, is based on the idea that AI becomes so advanced that software becomes redundant. _{– The Guardian}

Slack Investor went into a bit of detail last post on the sell off in tech and healthcare stocks due to the release of AI tools such as Claude. This wasn’t just some tale in a distant land, the ‘SaaS-pocalypse’ was having a very direct affect on the Slack Portfolio.

ASX200 biggest falls since August 2025 (Data as of 4/2/2026) – Livewire

Is this really a disaster for the Slack Portfolio? Slack Investor prides himself on getting things ‘mostly right’. However, this 2026 Financial Year has been testing – it seems that he has been getting things ‘mostly wrong’! However, Slack Investor knows that only long-term results count.

It is certainly a setback, as Slack Investor has attached himself to 5 of these ‘Biggest Fall’ ASX companies set out above. Some remedial action is required.

Slack Investor has been in this game long enough to not panic. He has however given the Slack Portfolio a ‘very hard look’ and has been gradually building up his cash position by selling companies that have not a convincing story to tell in these frothy times – particularly those with an extended PE Ratio. Future incomes may not be enough to justify their expense (high PE Ratio). He is mindful that the recent sell-off might be overdone in some cases.

But the companies being indiscriminately sold are often those whose actual protection was never in the codebase to begin with. The durable moats live outside the software entirely, in proprietary data rights, regulatory licences, institutional relationships, deep workflow embedding, and sustained frontier research. None of these can be prompt-engineered into existence. – Mark Gardner, MPC Markets –Livewire

Since his last published quarterly portfolio, Slack Investor has reduced his exposure to the US market (Sold NVDA, NDQ, JNDQ) and sold off some of his more speculative holdings (TLX, MP1 and CXL). His cash position is healthy and waiting for some future opportunities. His Stable Income pile plus Slack Portfolio dividends are enough for living expenses and holidays. Slack Investor should never be forced into a sale of his stocks.

Rules of thumb when bad things happen

Slack Investor has general rules of thumb for when stock prices have a fall of 20%. These questions must be asked.

Has something fundamentally changed with the company? Such as sustained falling earnings, new competitors, etc.
After running the numbers for predicted PE Ratio, predicted ROE and predicted growth. Would Slack Investor buy this company at the current price?

As well, for SaaS stocks, Slack Investor has another question.

Does the company produce proprietary software and embedded relationships with its clients that would provide a durable moat?

These three questions were enough for me to hang on to my battered software-based stocks TNE, CAR, REA, and WTC – and hope for a recovery.

February 2026 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

Despite the turbulence in the Slack Portfolio, it was a good month for the ASX 200 (+3.7%). The FTSE 100 is in record territory with 6.7% February growth. A well deserved rest for the US markets (S&P 500: -0.9%).

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Hi Claude … I wasn’t expecting you

Slack Investor likes to keep up with investor news and he was a bit slow with the emergence of the Claude Cowork platform. Claude Cowork is built by Anthropic as a way to bring the command line Claude Code tool to non-technical users. Claude Cowork is available as a desktop application for MacOS and Windows. This is just another way to help take AI into the workplace. Amazingly, the entire Claude Cowork feature was built in approximately ten days using Claude Code itself.

Since the release of this new platform, on fears that Claude is a bit of a gamechanger, software stocks have lost over 1 Trillion USD since the start of this month.

A legal firm conducted a test that asked Claude Cowork to draft a contract and critically read another legal contract to point out concerning clauses for a risk-averse client. The task was completed in seconds and was ‘Bang On’.

“I thought it was great. If I got that from a junior lawyer after they worked on that for hours I would be pleased. … It was clear, it was concise, it accurately reflected the commercial context _{– Sarah Pool, Lawyer and founder of EstateXchange}

Claude is not limited to the legal field. Apparently he is a deft hand at coding and assembling software. A Livewire article by Luke Hopewell has left quite an impression on Slack Investor. Early this month, the Xero CEO Singh Cassidy, who manages a very successful accounting software service stated: ‘Xero couldn’t be easily cloned with AI’. Further, ‘Investors are failing to differentiate between software tools that can be easily replicated and those that cannot’.

Luke Hopewell is a tech contributor to the Switzer report and has held editorial roles with Twitter and Gizmodo. He obviously has good tech skills … and he accepted the challenge and offered the task to Claude Cowork.

The article is well worth the read and he asked Claude if it could replicate the Xero software with Claude Code. It didn’t take Claude long to assemble 21 different pieces of financial software to mimic the Xero suite – at zero cost! This compares with Xero packages for small business which start at $75 per month.

Mr Hopewell admits that the Claude derived suite was clunky and ‘a pain to try and get running‘. This Claude assembled software is unlikely to satisfy a business owner who wants a seamless well designed product. However for something conjured up in a few minutes, Claude’s work is pretty impressive – and pretty cheap!

Claude and other AI developments have spooked the tech stocks

Claude Cowork and other AI-sourced jitters have set off a big slide in Healthcare and Software as a Service (SaaS) companies. Since August 2025, there have been falls of between 25% and 50% for some ASX stocks. Sadly for Slack Investor, these are just the type of profitable, low-overhead businesses that he likes and owns. He has been selling some of his tech stocks (but not enough!) whose chart patterns resemble ‘falling knives‘ – hoping to get back in when things stabilize.

As impressive as Claude is, there are a few hardy souls who maintain the recent sell-off of the SaaS stocks is a bit overdone. Slack Investor can comprehend that this type of intuitive AI software represents a massive change to the way we work. Businesses in many fields (legal, administrative, graphic design, financial, etc.) will have their earnings model challenged. However, he thinks that despite the industry-wide downturn, there should be a move towards quality businesses with platforms that are essential and AI-resilient.

This fear has been applied largely indiscriminately, with little consideration given to whether software platforms are embedded in core workflows with control of data and distribution _{– Jai Mirchandani – ELM Responsible Investments}

At the recent ProMedicus AGM, the CEO Dr Sam Hupert was asked whether their main software tool Visage was under threat from AI if anyone will be able to use AI tools to write industry grade software in a fraction of the time.

This, in our view, is an overly simplistic generalisation, one that certainly doesn’t apply to us. Visage 7 was built from the ground up using our own proprietary technology. It is not based on some readily available tool kit or platform. It is a very specialised, highly technical, patented suite of software that incorporates more than 30 years of domain knowledge; it is not a product that can be readily replicated with or without AI. We have not left a roadmap for others to follow. _{– ProMedicus CEO, Dr Sam Hupert}

Slack Investor is still a bit stunned by this rapid re-rating of all software related stocks. In the tech sector, the market is obviously not willing to pay the high P/E multiples on the promise of future earnings.

This may be wishful thinking, but Slack investor thinks Dr Hupert is right … and this AI scare for complex software products that are embedded in their clients workflow has gone way too far. Good companies will develop their own AI tools to enhance their software. It is time to focus on only high quality SaaS companies with a moat that Claude-type things will have difficulty in crossing. Time to get off the couch.

Rethinking the Slack Factor

Slack Investor is a simple man and he likes things that are not too complicated. He introduced the Slack Factor 9 months ago – a way to condense a lot of information down to just one number. The things that Slack Investor likes go on the top line and the things that he doesn’t like to be a high value – go on the bottom line.

ROE is the **forecast** ROE (ROE 2028), EPSG is the **forecast** EPSG for the next three years (EPSG AV – Max 30) and, PE Ratio is the forecast PE Ratio (PE 2028).

Return on Equity (ROE) is a great measure of how profitable a company is and Earnings per Share Growth (EPSG) is a measure of growth – both of these are desirable company traits for Slack Investor.

Price/Earnings (PE) Ratio is a way of looking at how expensive a share is according to its earnings. This is a ratio that Slack Investor likes to be below 40 or 50 (ideally even lower!) when forecast for the next 2 to 3 years.

The Slack Factor has flaws

Evidence of this is the relatively poor performance of the Slack Fund in the last 6 months compared to benchmarks. The problem with the Slack Factor is that it gives prominence to a stock’s growth forecast. Slack Investor has found that many high Slack Factor stocks are found in the medical innovation sector where there are also very high risks – and if growth forecasts are not met, this can cause a massive slide in share price.

For example, back in August 2025, Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) had a very high Slack Factor. Slack Investor had thought that by limiting the 3-yr growth forecast to 30 might protect him from any outlandish growth forecasts. The raw figures for TLX EPS growth for the next 3-yr were 26%(+1yr), 97%(+2yr) and 92%(+3yr). On this high growth prediction, he bought a decent parcel of this stock back in March 2025 – based upon its high Slack Factor.

Suffice to say, it has not gone well.

The Slack Investor has flaws … just ask my wife!

Slack Investor recognizes his imperfections, but he always looks for ways that he can improve. To avoid being pushed into stocks that have extremely high growth forecasts that may fail to materialise, he has decided to take growth out of the Slack sorting equation … but putting the important growth property into the pre-requisites before he will invest.

The Slack investor pre-requisites or, ‘things he likes’ before investing are mostly found on the Market Screener Financials page:

Profit – An established record of profit or a trend towards profit in the next year or so
Increasing Revenue – An established record of increasing revenue and forecast revenue
High Return on Equity – A forecast ROE of greater than 15%
Maneagable debt – Slack Investor loves companies that fund their own expansion but debt is sometimes necessary to grow
Growth – A forecast Earnings per Share Growth (EPSG) of greater than 10%
Price Maker – Ideally the company will have a unique product or it is ‘best in class’ – a business with a ‘moat’

Introducing the Slack Ratio

This is just a simplification of the Slack Factor (without the EPS growth). Slack Investor likes a high Return on Equity (ROE). A high growth company may also have a high PE ratio because the price will rise to account for future earnings growth. By expressing these two factors as a ratio – hopefully profitable companies that are not too expensive will shine. If the Slack Ratio is above 0.7 – Slack Investor is more likely to buy.

Slack Investor has tabled the shares in the Slack Portfolio (in Bold type) and a grab bag of other stocks plus a few new ideas from Livewire growth stocks. I have sorted the table by decreasing Slack Ratio.

Over the next six months, Slack Investor will have a minor tinker with the Slack Portfolio. He will be more likely to buy a company that is higher on the list. If there are insufficient funds for a purchase, he will probably sell a company that is lower on the list. This is not advice, just an insight into Slack Investor’s financial journey.

On the Hunt – November 2025 End of Month Update

Hunting Scene with Foxhounds
John Frederick Herring – Art UK

Slack Investor has a little bit of spare cash and his Macquarie bank savings accounts are offering a risk free (but taxed!) interest rate of 4.25%. Not a bad place to park your money temporarily. However, even in this risky environment, he would rather have his money working in a profitable company. He is continually hunting for opportunities.

Last September, he read about a profitable business in a Livewire discussion with Martin Hickson and Steve Johnson. They mentioned SKS Technologies a company that is gaining contracts in building data centres and other types of electrical and audio visual fit out work. Slack Investor put SKS on his watch list and did a bit of research. This is not advice, just a little journey into Slack Investor’s small mind and a case study on how he finds companies to invest in. This type of information gathering is something all investors should try to do before they press the ‘BUY’ button. Extra research offers no guarantee of success, but Slack Investor only aims for ‘mostly right’.

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

My first port of call is always the Market Screener Finance page to see if this idea is worth exploring further. Their income, projected income growth and lack of debt looked fine.

Next he looked at the projected numbers on the business health and relative price. Projected Price to Earnings ratio (PE) was refreshingly low for a growing company. Return on Equity (ROE) was high indicating a very profitable business. Because of some recent successful tenders, Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth was also very high. These type of numbers gave an extremely large Slack Factor. Was this too good? Is the recent growth inflating the numbers too much?

Slack Investor was recently burned by a few recent purchases in the pharmaceutical sector that had high projected growth figures and a subsequently high Slack Factor score. The stock price came crashing down when there were a few regulatory problems and doubt on the future growth.

Over 70% of their order book now comes from data centres, and that’s up from zero four years ago … At the moment, the company has an order book of $200 million, a tender pipeline of $500 million _{– Martin Hickson, 1851 Capital}

SKS is an unusual type of business for Slack Investor to be interested in. They submit tenders for their services and their income depends on whether their tenders are accepted – there is always some uncertainty about the future income flow of these type of businesses. However, things are running hot at the moment with a just completed acquisition of a similar business and, they have just announced a new $130m project.

I don’t see SKS as a long-term ‘set and forget’ holding as the tender process is competitive and results (income) are not assured. But for now, data centres are the big thing and SKS certainly have the established expertise and a growing tender pipeline. They also have won contracts with Defence and other government work. I will hold my small parcel (0.5% of Slack Investment Portfolio) and, with the lessons learned from recent pharma investments, watch for the first earnings downgrade – then exit with some dignity (hopefully).

Waiting … Waiting

Daily Price Chart for SKS Technologies – incrediblecharts.com

Sometimes, the numbers (fundamentals) on the business can be really good and the chart tells a different story. Slack Investor kept looking at the charts, weekend after weekend in October. SKS was caught up with a general bad feeling on the AI and data centre companies – with a subsequent price slide. The market thought that these sectors were ‘overcooked’ – and prices were falling. This changed on Monday 24 November 2025 when there was a 10% price rise after a positive AGM presentation. Somebody was buying. Slack Investor got onboard with this momentum at $3.70.

November 2025 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.0%) had a volatile but eventually flat month. For the ASX 200, a bit of a slide downwards (-3.0%). The UK Index (FTSE 100) needed its stop loss moving upwards as prices were 15% above the previous value. The new UK stop loss was moved up to the new ‘higher low’ of 9276.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Hubris

noun

pride or arrogance
(in Greek tragedy) an excess of ambition, pride, etc, ultimately causing the transgressor’s ruin.

Slack Investor possesses all the human frailties – try as he might, even after decades of investing, some of these failings will occasionally surface. Recently flushed with pride with his good performance figures for the past 15 years, he let a few stock plunges go too far – on the mistaken premise that the market will quickly correct itself to reinforce Slack Investor’s view of the world.

A bit of history here … Slack Investor is disciplined in his investing in many ways. However, a trait that he struggles to shake is the sin of hubris. So convinced is Slack Investor of his magnificent stock picking abilities – he sometimes will persuade his inner self that, after a stock price fall, the ‘market’ has got this one wrong! He was so happy while his healthcare stock prices were going up that he brushed aside the unmistakable signs of decline over the past 6 months.

Slack Investor waded into Telix Pharma last year on the strength of its very impressive projected growth figures which led to a very high Slack Factor score. What he didn’t account for is the huge effect of any regulatory problems on potential growth. During reporting season, just the suggestion of problems with the regulators causes great panic.

The Telix share price plunged 18.8% on the day after the company revealed it had run into a snag with the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). _{– From Motley Fool, reporting on just one of the TLX shocks that has led to a 30% stock price drop in August 2025.}

With hindsight, Slack Investor wishes he had acted more quickly with his stop loss levels, but the falls were so dramatic that only the day traders would be able to get out with some dignity. Slack Investor is not a day trader and looks at his stocks weekly.

What to do about Telix now?

The FDA concerns with TLX were about some future products in the pipeline and the actual 2025 reporting season results were quite good – hopefully, all the bad news is already priced in! It is time to rationally have another look at the stock to decide whether to dump TLX and look for other opportunities. I go to the Market Screener Finance tab for TLX.

Slack Investor first looks at the Income/Projected Income chart to ensure that the income over the past few years and the projected income are showing a rising trend. The next chart down is the Balance sheet. He is looking for debt levels that are well covered by sales. No red flags here.

He then collects a few numbers. PE levels at 170 (December 2024) are frighteningly high … but, if the projected sales growth comes to fruition, the predicted 2027 PE Ratio is a more comforting 21.

A look further down the financial page reveals the predicted profitability (ROE). The forecast ROE for 2027 is a healthy 21.53%. Further down on the page is the predicted Earnings Per Share (EPS). Slack Investor is interested in how these earnings are predicted to grow. For 2025, 2026 and 2027, the forecast EPS growth is 26.04%, 97% and 91.62%

All Charts and Data from Market Screener

Combining all this data together with other healthcare stocks in my portfolio that had big falls over the past few months helps me determine whether to hold onto these stocks – or not!

*Where*, PE (2027/28) is the forecast P/E Ratio for 2027/28; ROE (2027/28) is the forecast ROE for 2027/2028); EPS Growth is the forecast EPSG for the next three years (EPSG AV). The **Slack Factor** is a combination of these metrics *using the formula defined in previous posts.*

Lessons?

‘Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent‘ _{– John Maynard Keynes}

There is no doubt that Slack Investor should have parked his hubris and let his healthcare stocks go at a much earlier stage in their decline – but for all sorts of human reasons, Slack Investor has found this very hard to do.

However, we are here now … and what should he do? Would he buy these stocks now at the current price? Given these forecast growth figures above … probably! So, for now, I’m being patient and hanging on.

Healthcare stocks often seem to have heroic growth estimates that are easily thwarted for regulatory reasons or the efficacy of competing products. These forecast growth figures can distort simple measures like the Slack Factor.

Mental note to Slack Investor … weather this crisis … and then, reduce exposure to speculative healthcare stocks.