ASX 200 | Slack Investor

Mission Beach – Home of Dreams … and Market Value Update

Poolside at the Elandra Resort, Mission Beach, Far North Queensland (FNQ)

Slack Investor has just returned from a holiday in beautiful Far North Queensland. A stay at Mission Beach reminded him of a venture proposed by Mayfair 101 – 7 years ago. The founder, James Mawhinney came to Mission Beach in 2019 with a vision of developing the recently tropical-cyclone-ravaged area into a major tourism destination. The plan included the purchase of Dunk Island, the Elandra Resort and 230 other properties in the Mission Beach area. This, naturally, caused a lot of local excitement. However, any tourist development in a cyclone-prone area (two hours from an international airport) is, at best, a speculative investment. Slack Investor was not impressed with the offering and presented a ‘run for the hills’ argument.

Mayfair … You’re ‘investor-facing division’ is not getting any of Slack Investor’s money. Despite the slick presentations and corporate glitz – Slack Investor, November 2019

The problem was that Mr Mawhinney planned to pay for this development with investors’ cash – those who bought into his Mayfair 101 funds. Further, he portrayed these funds as ‘A popular cash and term deposit alternative…’ ASIC determined that these claims were ‘misleading and deceptive’.

You could say that things did not go well for Mayfair 101. There is a complicated history of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) involvement with this matter since 2020. There seems to be a movement towards a conclusion for Mr Mawhinney. However, sadly for investors in his funds, they are facing a potential wipeout.

Following an ASIC investigation, James Mawhinney, of Port Melbourne, Victoria, has been arrested and charged with four counts of engaging in dishonest conduct in the course of carrying on a financial services business. – ASIC Media Release, 9th April 2024

The case is listed for sentence indication on 16 November 2026 at the County Court of Victoria.

Market Value – June 2026 Update

Slack Investor likes to keep up to date with how the markets are travelling for value and he has been using charts for the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE). This value is also known as the Shiller P/E Ratio after Robert Shiller the economics professor that made this measure popular. Slack Investor first started using CAPE as a ‘value’ tool in September 2021. The most recent post on Market Value was November 2025 – about 7 months ago.

For the following charts, Slack Investor uses monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the latest actual CAPE values up until 29 May 2026. A ‘fair value’ zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean (average) – click images for better resolution.

ASX 200 CAPE Value 22.38 (9% above long-term av.)

FTSE 100 CAPE Value 18.99 (9% above long-term av.)

S&P 500 CAPE Value 40.19 (60% above long-term av.)

The UK and Australian markets are not too overvalued. However, in terms of the Shiller P/E the S&P 500 has remained in overvalued territory. Unfortunately, whenever the S&P 500 has a large correction the effects are usually felt in other markets.

There is some good research that links CAPE to long-term returns … and future returns are what gets Slack Investor excited. The predictive skill of the Schiller CAPE is not very good over 1-yr and 5-yr periods. However, it does show some skill for periods of 10 years and longer. The tight spread around the trend line indicates that the Shiller P/E might have some predictive skill.

Shiller P/E and S&P 500 10-year annualised forward returns since 1983. The data shows 41 years of S&P 500 10-year average annual returns based upon the Shiller PE ratio (from 10 years ago). Slack Investor has modified the chart and circled the 10-year average returns based upon the times when the Shiller P/E was previously around 40 – From Invesco.com

The Buffet Indicator as Value

The Buffet Indicator (Green) is the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP. The line in Blue represents the ratio that also includes total Federal assets. The red line is the 20-yr average of the Buffet Indicator – from GuruFocus

Another way of determining market value is the Buffet Indicator. Mr Buffet regards this as ‘probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.’ It uses the historical ratio of big economic values The Total US Market Capitalization (TMC) over US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The 20-yr average of this ratio is 128.84%. The current ratio is now 233.8 % of the latest GDP. Based upon these figures, Buffet Indicator implies the US Market is ‘Significantly Overvalued’ and it is likely to return -1.2% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends for the next 8 years.

Grim News. The recent ‘frothy’ SpaceX Initial Public Offering breaking all sorts of records – for a currently loss-making company – is another symptom. With the exception of Platinum 101, Slack Investor is not a great predictor of events, but ‘in his waters’ he thinks we may be near the top of the market.

Nice Shorts … and May 2026 – (Early) End of Month Update

Slack Investor is a big fan of the colourful short for aquatic activities and, as a result, Ms Slack Investor is glad that winter is approaching. However, he is not generally a fan of investing in a shorted stock. He has learned this lesson the hard way – on a few prevous occasions.

Short selling is a technique used to profit from a fall in the price of a stock. It is a method where you sell first, and buy later – if the price of the stock drops then you are selling for a higher price than you are buying resulting in a profit. – Shortman

A company might be on the short selling list because there may be doubts about the underlying business. Or, more commonly, the business is OK but the share price has outpaced earnings – the price has gone up well ahead of earnings and the current Price/Earnings (PE) ratio is way too high.

Luckily, there are websites that track this short selling activity on the ASX. Shortman is one of the most comprehensive. Slack Investor did have a dabble into the short market in his early investment life but he thought it wasn’t a natural fit for his game – as he is an eternal optimist.

Also, the ‘short’ market can be manipulated. There is evidence that large US hedge funds have previously spread bad news about some ASX stocks in order to use shorts to profit from falling prices. As a result, Slack Investor now sticks to the ‘long’ market where he buys stocks and hope they go UP!

When a stock has a high short interest, it means a meaningful portion of the available float has been borrowed and sold by traders betting the share price will fall. In simple terms, it is the market’s aggregate bearish view expressed with real money on the line. – _{StocksDownUnder}

Most of the time, it is a good idea to avoid stocks that are heavily shorted – where a good percentage of the market thinks these stocks are going down in price. It usually doesn’t make much sense to swim against the current. Ideally, what you really want, is to own a company where others in the market also want to invest. This sets up a scenario where the stock price rises.

Top Shorted Stocks

At the 26th May 2026, the top 15 shorted stocks on the ASX by aggregate percentage with their weekly change in shorting interest. The short list data is prepared by the ASX and has a 5-day delay – shortman.com.au

Slack Investor has a small position in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (~1% of investment portfolio). Alarmingly, 14.83% of the stock on issue is owned by short sellers. He neglected to look the stock up on Shortman prior to purchase. This could be a mistake!

Therefore, this play carries quite a bit of risk. Slack Investor was carried away with the power of the ‘Wedgie’. The short sellers are betting that future revenue predictions where Market Screener shows the PE declining from its current astronomical value of 750 in 2026 to a manageble 33 in 2028 – will not happen!

On the plus side, TLX on track to meet 2026 revenue forecasts and the shorts have started to decline (weekly change down 0.28%). At this stage, he is optimistic that the tide may turn. But, if the price drops sharply at one of the weekend reviews, Slack Investor will have to bail and hand another victory to those pesky ‘shorters’.

May 2026 – (Early) End of Month Update

Slack Investor has gone early for this post as he is off to his old ‘stomping ground’, Far North Queensland, for a few weeks. He will be taking his colourful shorts and remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

The ASX 200 (-0.2%) was flat so far this month. The FTSE 100 (+1.1%) and the S&P 500 (+4.3%) have had a positive month so far. The US Index (S&P 500) has been so bouyant that it needed its stop loss moved upwards. Prices were 15% above the previous value. The new US stop loss was difficult to find and Slack investor had to go to the daily charts to find a sensible low point to put the stop loss. He moved it up to the new ‘higher low’ of 7046.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

The Independently Wealthy – April 2026 End of Month Update

Old Man with a Gold Chain (1631) – Rembrandt van Rijn – Art institute Chicago

In his youth, it was a revelation to Slack Investor that some people didn’t have a job – they just had income derived from assets.

He didn’t know of anyone who was independently wealthy, and thought that the normal course was to work hard till retirement age, then apply for the government pension. That’s what his parents and grandparents did. Those who have been employed since compulsory super emerged in the 1990’s can rely on industry-based super plus any extra savings.

Slack Investor has had the aim of being independently wealthy – being able to support retirement through income from assets (investments). This is the goal. However, things happen along the way, and the next best thing would be to own your own (even modest) home before retirement and get to the ‘sweetspot’ of assets. As of March 2026, this is where a couple can have between $470 000 and $1 045 500 in retirement assets and still qualify for some government-funded aged pension to top up their income from savings.

The Path to Independent Wealth

It was reading the pioneer finance blogs of people like Mr Money Moustache that the idea of ‘Independent Wealth’ could be pursued by a normal working person. First, you have to save your retirement funds. Hopefully, the fund return will be a few percent above inflation and then you can withdraw money (based loosely on the ‘4% rule’) to live on.

‘Assuming a minimum requirement of 30 years of
portfolio longevity, a first-year withdrawal of 4%,
followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals in
subsequent years, should be safe.‘ _{– FPA Journal – The Best of 25 Years: Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data}

Maximum safe withdrawal rate (SAFEMAX) calculated for a 30-yr retirement on a conservative balanced portfolio of 50% US stocks and 50% US Bonds. From – Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data by William P. Bengen

There is some concern that this ‘4% rule’ of thumb is inadequate as it is based upon historical market performance from 1926 until 1992 where stock market returns have been mostly good. Some advisers recommend a lower withdrawal rate of 3.3% in the initial stages – and a flexible approach to retirement spending.

The Independent Wealth Path Could be Tricky in the Next Decade

Due to the current high valuations, Vanguard is predicting a lower than average median 10-yr return for equities for the next 10 years. The Vanguard predictions are based upon past data and do not account for the productivity benefits of AI – which might justify current valuations – but they are a concern.

Vanguard 10-year annualised nominal return (In Australian Dollars) and volatility forecasts are based on the 31 December 2025 run of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) The model incorporates the long-term predictive power of current CAPE valuations.

Slack Investor’s view is that no one really can predict the future, and there is a high volatility expressed with these equity forecasts. However, the Vanguard model 10-yr forecasts have usually been correct between the 25th and 75th percentile ranges. This gives a more rubbery forecast that Slack Investor is happier to work with. From the Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts issued April 2026, the predicted 10-yr percentile annual returns for each asset group are shown below. Median predictions for 10-yr earnings in stocks are the lowest since this prediction model was developed. When compared to historical returns over the past 30 years (Vanguard), the median forecasts are quite low for stock-related investments.

Asset Class	25th Percentile Forecast	Median Forecast	75th Percentile Forecast	Vanguard Historical 30-yr av. Returns
US Equities	2.6%	5.9%	9.6%	10.1%
Global (ex US) Equities	3.1%	6.0%	9.1%	9.6%
Emerging Markets	0.5%	4.6%	8.7%	9.9%
US Treasury bonds	4.0%	4.6%	5.3%	4.1%
US Inflation	1.4%	2.0%	2.5%	2.6%

Vanguard model predicted 10-yr (From 2026) percentile and median annual returns for each asset group. The historical average for the previous 30-yr is also shown.

The ‘Independent Wealth’ path could be tricky to negotiate in the next 10 years if the forecast 10-yr returns are nearer the 25th percentile – there is a 25% chance that the returns will be lower than this. The best way to protect your funds is to hold a good portion of them in stable reserve. Slack Investor has about 30% of his funds in annuities, cash/bonds, stable dividend stocks, REIT’s, etc. Also, keep your retirement portfolio diversified across asset classes.

What Slack Investor did with the ‘4% Rule’

Before retirement: He used the ‘4% rule’ of thumb to determine the equivalence of salary and income, so that he knew if he had enough funds to retire.

For example, if a retirement salary of $40 000 for a couple is required, the 4% rule indicates that we should multiply this amount by 25 to get our retirement lump sum.

$40 000 x 25 = $1 000 000 in retirement funds

$80 000 x 25 = $2 000 000 in retirement funds, etc

First 5 years of retirement: Be careful here, this is where you are most prone to sequencing risk.

Sequencing risk (also called sequence of returns risk) is the danger that a significant market downturn in the early years of retirement will permanently damage your portfolio _{– Wealthlab}

Slack Investor encountered below average returns in his 2nd and 4th year of retirement. He coped with this in two ways.

1. A dynamic spending strategy approach to net withdrawals from the retirement fund. After a good year, we would spend more on holidays. A bad year would mean a more modest approach.

2. The use of pile theory (buckets). His initial spread was 70% in investments and 30% in stable income. He has tried to keep these ratios reasonably steady by withdrawing from the over allocated pile each year.

Set up a ratio of Stable income: Investments in Your Retirement Fund that you are happy with and take your annual expenses out of the pile that is over allocated at the end of the year. In the above case, Investments – From Slack Investor

After 5 years of retirement: Fill your boots. If the first 5 years hasn’t stressed your retirement funds, then things should be fine. There are mandated withdrawals from Super Funds (Aged 65–74: 5%, 75–79: 6%, 80–84: 7%, etc) but, if you are under age 75, re-contribution of any excess funds is a good idea.

Slack Investor has gone down the path of trying to preserve most of the capital in his retirement fund to use as a gift to the next generation or, (I hope not!) an aged care accommodation deposit. He won’t mind a bit of capital shrinkage as he gets older. He anticipates that, after the age of 70, there is more a danger of running out of time rather than money.

April 2026 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

All markets had a rebound in April. The rise was modest for the ASX 200 (+2.2%) and the FTSE 100 (+ 2.0%). The ‘Crazy Brave’ US market had strong growth (+ 9.5%) on the possibility of an Iran War ‘deal’ and a return to ships passing freely through the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, this hasn’t happened yet.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

The Super Squeeze – March 2026 End of Month Update

**Woman Giving Money to a Servant-Girl** (c. 1668–1672) (Cropped) – Pieter de Hooch.

In times of market turmoil, Slack Investor likes to take his mind off the day-to-day fluctuations of his share investments and concentrate on things that he knows that work. He knows that the stock market is volatile. He knows that the stock market provides excellent returns to the long-term investor. He knows that his Stable Income pile will fund his needs.

For a mood lift, he just taps into his inner Julie Andrews and simply remembers My Favourite Things. These favourite things include long-term investing and Superannuation.

Compulsory Pay Day Super

Compulsory Super was brought into Australia way back in 1992 by the force of nature Paul Keating. Every time that there is a proposed change to the structure of Superannuation, Slack Investor steels himself for the worst.

However, to almost universal acclaim, there was some good news in Superannuation circles with the introduction of pay day Super. From 1 July 2026, employer paid Super must be transferred on the same schedule as an employee’s pay cycle rather than quarterly. Previously, the rules allowed for the Super Guarantee contribution to be paid in lump sums every 3 months. The new rules are expected to benefit lower-income workers under casual, and part-time arrangements. Their Super will be deposited into their accounts and earning money straight away.

‘By switching to payday super, a 25-year-old median income earner currently receiving their super quarterly and wages fortnightly could be around $6,000 or 1.5% better off at retirement.’ _{– Stephen Jones , Assistant Treasurer}

Bewdy … we can relax now and let the compulsory 12% Super guarantee fund our comfortable retirement … Not so fast!

The ‘Voice of Super’ outlines the ‘Squeeze’

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) update their Retirement standard every quarter. They follow the effects of household costs on a retirement budget for both a comfortable and a modest retirement. ASFA define a ‘comfortable’ retirement where the budget allows for Occasional restaurant meals, take-away coffee and a yearly domestic holiday and an overseas trip every 7 years . Slack Investor has more lofty goals than this. Let’s focus on at least a comfortable retirement!

Even before President Trump’s misadventures in the Persian Gulf, prices have been moving north. The CPI rose 3.8% in the 12 months to December 2025 – but other household costs are rising faster. ASFA found plenty of price increases for the same period.

Electricity up 21.5 per cent, driven by the expiry of energy bill relief subsidies
Coffee and tea up 15.3 per cent due to rising commodity prices
Beef up 10.8 per cent
Domestic travel up 9.6 per cent
Water up 7.1 per cent
Property rates up 6.2 per cent
Medical and hospital services up 4.3 per cent
Fruit up 4.2 per cent
Private rental costs were up 3.9 per cent, just above the general inflation rate.

These price pressures have moved the required income for a comfortable retirement to even higher levels.

‘… homeowners aged 65 and over now need $77,375 annually for a comfortable retirement as a couple, and $54,840 for a single.’ _{– ASFA Report February 2026}

ASFA calculate that these retirement incomes at age 67 would require a super amount of $630,000 for singles and $730,000 for couples – assuming home ownership.

Are we on track?

Age	ASFA Required Comfortable Super Amount	Actual Male	Actual Female
30	$66 500	$55 690	$46 586
40	$168 000	$140 680	$109 209
50	$296 000	$254 071	$190 075
55	$377 000	$319 743	$242 945
60	$469 000	$395 852	$313 360
65	$571 000	$448 518	$392 274
67	$630 000	?	?

Assuming a future pre-tax income of $65,000 a year that keeps track with inflation. ASFA have calculated the Super milestones for a single person to reach $630,000 in super at retirement – ASFA February 2026 Report. Actual Male and Female Super balances from Rest Super (March 2026)

Male Super amounts are approaching the required ‘comfortable’ Super levels – but are still lagging. There is a definite gender gap in Super balances. Women suffer from structural inequalities in the workplace that include lower paid professions and career breaks for family.

As well as these existing Super shortfalls for a ‘comfortable’ retirement, these ASFA budgets assume that the retirees own their own home.

Despite the difficulty, Slack Investor encourages all to have the goal of their own home by retirement age. This may be a modest apartment, tiny home, a granny flat, or a place in the country. But it must be yours! Also, keep an eye on your Super and how it relates to the ASFA targets at each age level. Slack Investor always made sure his Super was in the Highest Growth option when he was under 55 and topped up his balance regularly with ‘Salary Sacrifice’ contributions.

March 2026 – End of Month Update

It was in March 2025 Update when Slack Investor wrote about the first ‘Trump Slump’ due to the random application of his trade tariffs to the world.

Well, thank you again Donald for your contribution. All followed markets fell this month. The ASX 200 down 4.0%, the FTSE 100 down 9.7%, and the S&P 500 down 4.3%. For now, each Index remains above their stop losses – but both the UK Index and Australian Index are perilously close to their stops. For now, Slack Investor remains IN for the FTSE 100, the ASX 200, and the US Index S&P 500.

The talented David Rowe has summed things up again – David Rowe, AFR

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed. There are some significant changes since the December 2025 update. Slack Investor has tinkered – and tried to remove the more speculative stocks in the Portfolio. He has stayed with established growing companies that will hopefully weather the storm. He has ended up with a good amount of cash (17.5% of Slack Portfolio). This will hopefully be deployed when he sees a return to more stable conditions.

Slack Portfolio Surgery – February 2026 End of Month Update

Robert Liston operating. Painting by Ernest Board of Bristol (1877-1934) – Wikimedia Commons

The leg amputation depicted above was supposedly done in under 30 seconds. Dr Liston not only managed to kill the patient (Sepsis), but one of his assistants (Sepsis) – and also one of the audience (shock). A 300% mortality rate! Slack Investor hopes for a better outcome after some recent portfolio surgery.

SaaS-pocalypse

The ‘SaaS-pocalypse’, a trending term to describe the recent and dramatic sell-off in global Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) shares, is based on the idea that AI becomes so advanced that software becomes redundant. _{– The Guardian}

Slack Investor went into a bit of detail last post on the sell off in tech and healthcare stocks due to the release of AI tools such as Claude. This wasn’t just some tale in a distant land, the ‘SaaS-pocalypse’ was having a very direct affect on the Slack Portfolio.

ASX200 biggest falls since August 2025 (Data as of 4/2/2026) – Livewire

Is this really a disaster for the Slack Portfolio? Slack Investor prides himself on getting things ‘mostly right’. However, this 2026 Financial Year has been testing – it seems that he has been getting things ‘mostly wrong’! However, Slack Investor knows that only long-term results count.

It is certainly a setback, as Slack Investor has attached himself to 5 of these ‘Biggest Fall’ ASX companies set out above. Some remedial action is required.

Slack Investor has been in this game long enough to not panic. He has however given the Slack Portfolio a ‘very hard look’ and has been gradually building up his cash position by selling companies that have not a convincing story to tell in these frothy times – particularly those with an extended PE Ratio. Future incomes may not be enough to justify their expense (high PE Ratio). He is mindful that the recent sell-off might be overdone in some cases.

But the companies being indiscriminately sold are often those whose actual protection was never in the codebase to begin with. The durable moats live outside the software entirely, in proprietary data rights, regulatory licences, institutional relationships, deep workflow embedding, and sustained frontier research. None of these can be prompt-engineered into existence. – Mark Gardner, MPC Markets –Livewire

Since his last published quarterly portfolio, Slack Investor has reduced his exposure to the US market (Sold NVDA, NDQ, JNDQ) and sold off some of his more speculative holdings (TLX, MP1 and CXL). His cash position is healthy and waiting for some future opportunities. His Stable Income pile plus Slack Portfolio dividends are enough for living expenses and holidays. Slack Investor should never be forced into a sale of his stocks.

Rules of thumb when bad things happen

Slack Investor has general rules of thumb for when stock prices have a fall of 20%. These questions must be asked.

Has something fundamentally changed with the company? Such as sustained falling earnings, new competitors, etc.
After running the numbers for predicted PE Ratio, predicted ROE and predicted growth. Would Slack Investor buy this company at the current price?

As well, for SaaS stocks, Slack Investor has another question.

Does the company produce proprietary software and embedded relationships with its clients that would provide a durable moat?

These three questions were enough for me to hang on to my battered software-based stocks TNE, CAR, REA, and WTC – and hope for a recovery.

February 2026 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

Despite the turbulence in the Slack Portfolio, it was a good month for the ASX 200 (+3.7%). The FTSE 100 is in record territory with 6.7% February growth. A well deserved rest for the US markets (S&P 500: -0.9%).

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

It was the best of times … it was the worst of times – January 2026 End of Month Update

Author of ‘A Tale of Two Cities’, Charles Dickens in his study at Gadshill

Slack Investor is a bit of a do-it-yourself bloke and has had reasonable success with his investing over the long-term. However, there is a place for outsourcing this noble task and it has always been Slack Investor’s intention to gradually take a back seat as he loses his faculties and hands over the whole kaboose to Ms Slack Investor. I always thought I would follow the great Mr Buffet’s thoughts on how to produce superior returns to most fund managers.

‘My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.’ _{– Warren Buffet, 2013 Berkshire Newsletter}

Warren Buffet’s reasoning is based upon the relatively high fees that stock-picker (active) funds charge. It is his contention that these fees will erode any achieved outperformance for most of them. Is there still room for stock-pickers? With apologies to Charles Dickens, Slack Investor will examine this with a Tale of Two Funds from his own investing history.

The Tale of Two Funds

The Montgomery Fund

Slack Investor has always been impressed with Roger Montgomery. He often appears on the media and his own website with reasoned and intelligent comment. It was after one of these exposures that Slack Investor thought it would be a grand idea to allocate some of the Slack Funds to Montgomery’s signature vehicle. Slack Investor bought units in The Montgomery Fund. between 2012 and 2017. While there was some initial success, the continual long-term underperformance when compared to the ASX 300 Benchmark was enough for Slack investor to have misgivings – and pull the sell cord in 2020 for an eventual loss. It was a case of the ‘sizzle’ being more impressive than the steak.

The management fees for the Montgomery Fund start at 1.36%p.a. and there is also an outperformance fee of 15.3%. The table below shows that in all time frames, but most significantly, when using the long-term figures (> 5-yr), the Montgomery Fund has underperformed. The fund has been weighed down by its relatively high fees and poor performance. The fund is aware of its chronic underperformance and they attribute most of the blame to an old fund manager prior to 2022. However, the inability to keep pace with the benchmark even in the last 3 years, suggests to Slack Investor that the malaise still lingers.

Table of the Montgomery Fund performance vs S&P/ASX 300 benchmark till 31/12/2025 since since inception 17/08/2012 – The Montgomery Fund

PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund

Slack Investor’s ears pricked up during a Livewire Interview with Paul Moore, the founder of PM Capital. Mr Moore’s humility, common sense and experience came through when discussing his fund offerings. PM Capital run a number of different funds but the one that intrigued Slack Investor the most was the Global Opportunities Fund where:

The aim is to create long term wealth through a concentrated portfolio of 25-45 global companies that we believe are trading at prices different to their intrinsic values.

The PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund is available as a Managed Fund and also a Listed Investment Company (LIC). Slack Investor chose the LIC (PGF.ASX) as it is readily traded through his broker. PGF has fees of 1.0% p..a. and there are also an outperformance fee of 15%. However, looking at the intrinsic value of global companies is a skill that Slack Investor hasn’t got. For example, the largest position in PGF is European banks. PM Capital compare the Dutch origin ING (Book Value x 0.8, Forward PE 5) with Australia’s CBA (Book Value x 2.0, Forward PE 19). Slack Investor is happy to pay a fee to portfolio managers that are willing to seek out good value global companies. The long-term outperformance in the table below confirm that they are excellent at it!

Performance Table for the PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund, the Monthly update figures valid at 31/12/2025 were used together with the MSCI World Index returns in Australian Dollars (AUD). The PGF ETF was launched in December 2006 but the Fund’s inception date was October 1998.

This is not advice, and Slack Investor acknowledges that past performance does not guarantee future performance. However, the table above suggests that Mr Moore and his team know what they are doing. Consistently outperforming the MSCI World Index (in $AUD) is a considerable accomplishment. Slack Investor has bought some PGF with thoughts of adding further to his position in the future.

January 2026 – End of Month Update

End of month updates - Blue rising chart

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

In another crazy month of world turmoil (Thanks Mr President!) all followed markets rose strongly. The S&P 500 (+1.4%), the FTSE 100 (+2.9%) and the ASX 200 rose +1.8%. Slack Investor remains uneasy about how this great experiment will work out.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Be Old and Get Gifts – December 2025 End of Month Update

Portrait of an Old Man – Rembrandt Van Rijn – Harvard Art Museum

Slack Investor would have to say that getting old has several disadvantages. However, the Australian government is compensating for this – perhaps a little too much. Under the current ‘Intergenerational contract’ and our ‘tax transfer’ system – it pays to be old!

25 years ago, the 75+ age group’s post-tax income was only 75% of the average, but now it matches the average, indicating a significant shift. _{–(Source: ANU)}

The Black line on the chart below, represents the net value (aggregate) of government taxes and services at each age. It is a good demonstration of how the Australian tax and transfer system works. A recent ANU Report shows that these transfers are part of the intergenerational contract where the working community ‘looks after’ the young and the old:

The Australian tax and transfer system – (Source: ANU). The intergenerational contract is graphically displayed – the black line is the net value of government taxes and services at each age.

When people are young, they pay relatively little tax and they receive services such as education.
During working age, people typically pay more in taxes than they receive in services.
After retirement, older Australians usually receive more in government benefits and services (age pension, aged care and health care) than they pay in taxes.

These principles are sound in a caring economy. However, there is something profoundly wrong with the whole Australian tax system where:

Australians over the age of 60 have enjoyed a post-tax income similar to that of mid-career working age Australians and much higher than Australians aged 18-30 _{–(Source: ANU)}

The report describes how, in earlier periods, older Australians earned relatively little income while the tax and transfer system provided income and support. In recent years, Australian retirees generally have generated income from significant Real Estate and Superannuation accumulated wealth – and the Australian tax and transfer system has not adjusted.

We’re a country that overtaxes hard work that actually contributes to the economy and rewards those hoarding unproductive assets while contributing little back. _{– Tom Stelzer, Livewire}

The Australian Budget is in a structural deficit – the cash balance will be negative in every year going forward! In the next few years, it will be necessary to increase taxes or reduce Government spending.

The ANU Report suggests that budget repair should include both a mix of tax increases and spending reductions on older Australians. The proportion of over 65s paying tax has halved in the last 20 years. Slack Investor is not one to eagerly put his hand up for extra taxes – but he can see the community benefit. He will take it on the chin when it happens.

December 2025 – End of Month and Year Update

Although December in the US was a flat month (S&P 500 +0.0%), there was a bit of a ‘Santa Rally’ this month for Australia and the UK. The ASX 200 was up 3.3% and the FTSE 100 up 2.2%. Slack Investor remains IN for the FTSE 100, the ASX 200, and the US Index S&P 500.

I haven’t yet done the full maths on the market yearly gains that include dividends. In raw terms (without dividends), for calendar year 2025 the ASX 200 was up 7%, the FTSE 100 up a magnificent 21%, and the S&P 500 up 16%.

Amongst all this positive news, the Slack Portfolio has had a negative calendar year and is down 3.1%. Slack Investor has good long-term performance and accepts the volatility of the stock market. He is not surprised by the odd bad year, but amongst all this background rising tide – it is just poor form!

The Ashley Owen graphic below shows one of the reasons for the Slack portfolio negative performance is that he has attached himself to some of the biggest losers of calendar year 2025 (CSL -35%, Goodman Group -17% and Wisetech -41%). My New Year’s resolution is to pay a bit more attention to the Slack Portfolio and try to turn things around.

The ASX top shares movement till 12 Dec 2025 – From Ashley Owen IFPA lecture series – OwenAnalytics

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.

A technical note on the Slack Portfolio. Slack Investor has moved his Wesfarmers (WES) and Coles Group (COL) shares out of the growth-oriented Slack Portfolio because of their relatively weak projected growth (5%-10%). He remains a shareholder of these solid companies, but he has moved them into his Stable Income Fund – where they more comfortably sit.

On the Hunt – November 2025 End of Month Update

Hunting Scene with Foxhounds
John Frederick Herring – Art UK

Slack Investor has a little bit of spare cash and his Macquarie bank savings accounts are offering a risk free (but taxed!) interest rate of 4.25%. Not a bad place to park your money temporarily. However, even in this risky environment, he would rather have his money working in a profitable company. He is continually hunting for opportunities.

Last September, he read about a profitable business in a Livewire discussion with Martin Hickson and Steve Johnson. They mentioned SKS Technologies a company that is gaining contracts in building data centres and other types of electrical and audio visual fit out work. Slack Investor put SKS on his watch list and did a bit of research. This is not advice, just a little journey into Slack Investor’s small mind and a case study on how he finds companies to invest in. This type of information gathering is something all investors should try to do before they press the ‘BUY’ button. Extra research offers no guarantee of success, but Slack Investor only aims for ‘mostly right’.

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

My first port of call is always the Market Screener Finance page to see if this idea is worth exploring further. Their income, projected income growth and lack of debt looked fine.

Next he looked at the projected numbers on the business health and relative price. Projected Price to Earnings ratio (PE) was refreshingly low for a growing company. Return on Equity (ROE) was high indicating a very profitable business. Because of some recent successful tenders, Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth was also very high. These type of numbers gave an extremely large Slack Factor. Was this too good? Is the recent growth inflating the numbers too much?

Slack Investor was recently burned by a few recent purchases in the pharmaceutical sector that had high projected growth figures and a subsequently high Slack Factor score. The stock price came crashing down when there were a few regulatory problems and doubt on the future growth.

Over 70% of their order book now comes from data centres, and that’s up from zero four years ago … At the moment, the company has an order book of $200 million, a tender pipeline of $500 million _{– Martin Hickson, 1851 Capital}

SKS is an unusual type of business for Slack Investor to be interested in. They submit tenders for their services and their income depends on whether their tenders are accepted – there is always some uncertainty about the future income flow of these type of businesses. However, things are running hot at the moment with a just completed acquisition of a similar business and, they have just announced a new $130m project.

I don’t see SKS as a long-term ‘set and forget’ holding as the tender process is competitive and results (income) are not assured. But for now, data centres are the big thing and SKS certainly have the established expertise and a growing tender pipeline. They also have won contracts with Defence and other government work. I will hold my small parcel (0.5% of Slack Investment Portfolio) and, with the lessons learned from recent pharma investments, watch for the first earnings downgrade – then exit with some dignity (hopefully).

Waiting … Waiting

Daily Price Chart for SKS Technologies – incrediblecharts.com

Sometimes, the numbers (fundamentals) on the business can be really good and the chart tells a different story. Slack Investor kept looking at the charts, weekend after weekend in October. SKS was caught up with a general bad feeling on the AI and data centre companies – with a subsequent price slide. The market thought that these sectors were ‘overcooked’ – and prices were falling. This changed on Monday 24 November 2025 when there was a 10% price rise after a positive AGM presentation. Somebody was buying. Slack Investor got onboard with this momentum at $3.70.

November 2025 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.0%) had a volatile but eventually flat month. For the ASX 200, a bit of a slide downwards (-3.0%). The UK Index (FTSE 100) needed its stop loss moving upwards as prices were 15% above the previous value. The new UK stop loss was moved up to the new ‘higher low’ of 9276.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Warren Buffet and Market Value – November 2025 Update

Warren Buffet and his offsider the late Charlie Munger are dead set Slack Investor Heroes – and a reminder that the USA offers a crucible for outstanding qualities to emerge in individuals – as well as, in some presidential types, some not so good qualities. Mr Buffet is a great investor and philanthropist and full of insightful but humble advice that is worth heeding. Every November he writes a letter to his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders and it is a delight to read in full. This will be his last shareholder letter as he is retiring at the grand age of 95.

‘Our stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.’ _{– Berkshire Hathaway 2025 Newsletter}

Even investors as great as Warren Buffet are not immune to large market swings. After all, it is your long-term performance that is the most critical for a lifetime investor.

‘Since 1965, shares of Warren Buffett’s conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), have delivered a compounded annual return of 19.9% — almost double that of the S&P 500 over the same period.’ _{– Investopedia using data from the Berkshire Hathaway 2024 Newsletter}

Warren Buffet liked to look at current market valuation (S&P 500) as a ratio with the current US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At 30 June 2025 the ratio was 217%. A long way above the trend line and a warning that the S&P 500 was growing at a rate much faster than the general economy – this is a danger sign.

The Buffet Indicator is the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP. The ratio is now two standard deviations away from the historical trend line – from Current Market Valuation

Market Value – November 2025 Update

Slack Investor also likes to keep up to date with how the markets are travelling for value and he has been using charts for the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE). This value is also known as the Shiller P/E Ratio after Robert Shiller the economics professor that made this measure popular. Slack Investor first started using CAPE as a ‘value’ tool in September 2021. The most recent post on Market Value was mid-April 2025 about 6 months ago.

For the following charts, Slack Investor uses monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the latest actual CAPE values up until 31 October 2025. A ‘fair value’ zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean (average) – click images for better resolution.

ASX 200 CAPE Value 22.89 (11% above long-term av.)

ASX CAPE values – up to **31 October 2025**

FTSE 100 CAPE Value 18.24 (5% above long-term av.)

UK CAPE values – up to **31 October 2025**

S&P 500 CAPE Value 39.76 (59% above long-term av.)

US CAPE values – up to **31 October 2025**

The UK and Australian markets are not too overvalued. However, in terms of the Shiller P/E the S&P 500 has entered some lofty territory. Unfortunately, whenever the S&P 500 has a large correction the effects are usually felt in other markets.

If this relationship holds, the average S&P 500 10-year annualised forward returns are predicted to be close to zero or negative. This indicates that now is not a good time to start buying the S&P 500. Tech stocks (with high P/E) have fallen sharply lately and this could be early signs of a readjustment.

Slack Investor is not one with predictive skills. He just plods along – staying mostly invested and knowing that he has his stable income pile to ride out any market gyrations. Cripes … even the great Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway stock had 11 negative years between 1965 to 2024. Slack Investor could only dream of emulating the Buff’s long term compounded annual return of 19.9% over 55 years.

Ride that Horse! – October 2025 End of Month Update

Slack Investor reads a lot of finance news each week. Sadly, there now seems to be a portion of the finance news that seems to come from AI sources. However, there is still a lot of good stuff by real people – and he came across an excellent article by Carl Capolingua that had some great investor truths that apply to the current market.

A disciplined investor doesn’t fight the market – they respect it. They accept the market is responsible for their investing outcomes, win, lose or draw. They also accept that they have absolutely no control over the market or the outcomes it delivers. _{– Carl Capolingua, Livewire Markets}

The original article focuses on the difficulty of letting go of investments that have shown a loss. Slack Investor is still searching for this zen state and has written about his own troubles with selling stocks that have had a sudden fall. However, the quote above sums up ‘the bargain’ that Slack Investor has made with stocks and their volatility. I don’t know when the next correction (or worse!) is coming … but I know it’s coming.

World Markets are Expensive at the Moment

Although Slack Investor collects his own data on relative market value using CAPE numbers, the remarkable Ashley Owen has produced a great graphic showing the relative size of the world markets and how expensive they are at the moment in terms of PE and Yield. Clearly, the US market looks over ripe and any corrections here will historically influence all other markets.

World markets plotted by PE Ratio and Yield – From the very erudite Ashley Owen of Owen Analytics

Short-term Returns are Volatile

The chart below shows that the S&P 500 returns for a calendar year are all over the place, but if you just hung on, and didn’t sell the S&P 500 when times were tough, you would be rewarded with an average annual return of 12.2% over 30 years. Not Bad. Australian shares have returned an average yearly gain of 11.5% from 1900 to 2020.

Yearly Returns of the S&P 500 (green columns) and 15-yr rolling returns (blue line) – From T. RowePrice

What to do when the Correction comes

‘If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.‘ _{– Vanguard founder – John C. Bogle}

Slack Investor has had no real luck in timing the markets – despite a disciplined 21-yr project trying to do this. There are those that can, Marcus Padley and his investment team have gone to 100% cash and reported this on 21 October 2025. Slack Investor hasn’t the knowledge, or gumption, to confidently predict market exits and entries – and yet, has done OK in the investing business without too much angst.

Slack Investor knows that for an ordinary person, the stock market is the place with best long-term returns with minimal transaction costs. The bargain – to accept volatility in return for long-term gains – is accepted.

He has his stable income pile to keep the dogs from the door.
He tinkers with his Investment Portfolio of predominantly growth shares, but mostly he leaves it alone.
He will not sell his shares after a correction and convert to cash.
He has elevated his cash position slightly (6% cash, 94% invested) in case some bargains come up post-correction.

These are choppy times and there is an uncertain near-term future – situation normal in the stock market. Some of his portfolio (e.g. CSL, WTC, TLX) have had big falls lately. However, Slack Investor has had a look at future revenue predictions and has not completely given up on these stocks. Though, CSL is losing its shine as a growth company in Slack Investor terms.

He will keep riding that stock market horse … and push to the forefront of his mind the pleasant times at the rodeo bar with his cowboy mates … reflecting on our glorious achievements.

October 2025 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

The S&P 500 (+2.3%) and the FTSE 100 (+3.9%) have continued their strong monthly growth. Slack Investor is pleased to stay on board but there he remains nervous about the US markets. For the ASX 200, (+0.4%) a flat month with plenty of volatility.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).