Is your democracy sausage a little warm?

Australia election: Fines, donkey votes and democracy sausages - BBC News

For those in far off lands, a “democracy sausage” is the exquisite mixture of sausage, onions and sauce wrapped in a slice of bread that you purchase from a charitable organizations as a “reward to self” after voting at an election booth in Australia. Australia is coming up to a national voting day on 21 May, 2022. This is a day I have always enjoyed as I exercise my democratic rights and vote. Although over half the world countries are designated as democracies, due to recent changes by national governments that curtail press freedoms and suppress dissent, there is the evaluation that less than 20 percent of the world’s people now live in a Free country!

But lets not get too depressed about things I have no control over. For now, Slack Investor does have a vote.

Fossil Fuels and Climate Change

For the progress of civilization, it seemed to be an excellent idea to use fossil fuels (Coal, oil and natural gas) to provide relatively cheap energy. These fuels took hundreds of millions of years to form as vast amounts of plant matter was converted into stored carbon.

Fossil fuels are non-renewable and currently supply around 80% of the world’s energy

Client Earth – February 2022

When we use these fuels for energy, the carbon combines with oxygen – and carbon dioxide is released. Carbon dioxide, is one of the “greenhouse gases”, that trap heat in our atmosphere, causing global warming. 

The problem is, that we have managed to release huge amounts of the stored carbon dioxide in the relatively short time since the industrial revolution.

From an IPCC Report showing the rapid observed increase in global temperature since the industrial revolution – especially since the 1950’s – Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

Firstly, we must recognise that global warming is a real problem for our Earth. There is ample evidence of climate change leading to rising temperatures, rising sea levels, decreased cool season rainfall for southern and western Australia and increased weather-related disasters. Our current amount of warming due to the rapid release of these greenhouse gases is 1.1°C. Urgent action is required if we are to keep the warming below 1.5°C- We can all do our little bit to reduce our fossil fuel consumption – But real change must be led by our governments.

Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming

IPCC Report, August 2021 – Climate change widespread, rapid, and intensifying

With the Australian election looming, I am grateful to a timely Ross Gittins article and to Climate Analytics for doing the hard work of actually assessing the impact of the politician promises to help reduce greenhouse gases in order to reduce global warming. They assess Liberal party policies as leading to a warming of 3.0°C by 2030: Labour party policies consistent with a 2.0°C of warming; Teal Independents and Green party policies are consistent with a 1.5°C of warming.

Emission reductions for 2030 are very important if the
world is to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming
to 1.5°C, the long-term temperature goal of the Paris
agreement.

Climate Analytics
Climate Analytics analysis of the likely effect of of the major Australian political parties climate policies on Greenhouse gas levels and global warming.

If you think that climate change is an important issue. Think about your vote.

Slack Investor usually writes about financial matters – but a recent survey of Australian economists found that 74% of them rated “climate and the environment” as the most important issue for this up-coming election.

Also, what is the use of having a blog – if you cant have the occasional rant!

Spurious Correlations … and April 2022 – End of Month Update

Cheese Before Bed Will Not Give You Nightmares

Slack Investor is a lover … of cheese. He follows all cheese related literature and was shocked by the revelation that “Death by Bedsheet Entanglement” is highly correlated (0.95 Pearson R correlation) with cheese consumption. The thought that over 800 people died in the US in 2008 at the hand of their sleeping equipment is terrifying.

A quick explainer on the correlation coefficient, it is just a way to measure how strong the relationship is between two variables. The correlation coefficient ranges between +1.00 (perfect positive correlation) through zero (no correlation) to -1.00 (negative corrrelation)

The close association between cheese and bedsheet deaths – Click Image for more detail – Data sources: U.S. Office of Management and Budget and Centers for Disease Control & Prevention – From tylervigen.com

Slack Investor salutes Tyler Vigen here – a bloke who wrote a program that crawls through unrelated government data sets to find spurious correlations. The above chart is one of these random pairs of data that were thrown together by his program. Almost 50 000 of these graphs that show unlikely correlations have been found so far – and one more is produce every minute! Hats Off Tyler.

Correlation does not mean causation

First lecture in Statistics 101

In the cheese consumption case, it is hard to think that eating cheese actually causes bedsheet entanglement. The first step when trying to establish a link between two variables is correlation. Then, most importantly, experiments must be done to show that A actually causes B – Is there a reason that makes sense? Some people link cheese to nightmares, but there is no scientific evidence linking cheese to death by bedsheet … so, this high correlation is probably just due to chance and a limited data set (10-yr). There is likely to be a missing other variable that’s the true driver that causes the correlation. I would speculate that both variables might be linked to general population trends – but this would have to be tested.

Using Sector Correlations in Investing

Slack Investor has been banging on a bit about “Sectors” lately. and despite not feeling the need to match his portfolio with the sectors of the S&P 500 (Or ASX 200), sector analysis can be useful.

My Investments portfolio consists mostly of “growth stocks” in the Technology and Healthcare sectors. The table below shows a high correlation of these sectors with the total market – they will tend to move with the general market during an occasional downturn. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 23% from its November 2021 high – the Slack growth portfolio is down about 7 % so far this financial year – Not fun, but I do expect the occasional down year.

Sector correlations with the US stock Market – A Sector that would exactly move up and down with the US stocks would have a correlation of 1.00. Low scores ie Utilities do not move up and down the same way as stocks. – From Morningstar 2000-2018 data

However, I want my Stable Income pile, 30% of non-house wealth, to be much more conservative. It holds annuities, fixed interest products and some shares. The shares in the Stable pile need to have a low correlation with the general stock market – as, when the stock market does poorly, I want this pile to be OK.

For my Stable pile, I choose stock sectors that are not highly correlated with stock market fluctuations (circled in red below). I already have some REITS (Listed Real Estate – Correlation 0.59), and some Consumer Staples (Correlation 0.57) which Perhaps I should buy some more Utilities and REITS (real estate). When I get an opportunity, I would like to buy some Utilities (Correlation 0.40) for the Stable pile.

I am always on the lookout for spurious correlations and the 19-year data set, in the above table seems sufficient (would like longer!). Do the correlations make sense? For example, it seems reasonable that Utilities would have a low correlation with the general market. It is a sector that would be able to keep its earnings and maintain its stock price – even during a market downturn.

An asset that has an even lower correlation to the S&P 500 is Gold – and is often seen as a “hedge” to to the stock market. Over a 20-yr period (2000-2020), Gold has a correlation of -0.28 with Australian Equities and -0.12 with Global Equities

Gold has a low (and at times, negative) correlation to other assets

ETF Securities

Smarter people than Slack Investor provide compelling reasons for including Gold in your portfolio – to improve long term returns. But the pig-headed Slack Investor has not yet overcome his old fashioned view that Gold is a speculative investment that does not earn a dividend or interest.

April 2022 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares and the FTSE 100 but OUT for the US Index S&P 500 due to a sell – back in January 2022.

Despite some big daily fluctuations, the FTSE 100 (+0.4%) and The ASX 200 (-0.9%) ended relatively flat this month. All is not well in the USA where inflation fears and some mixed results from the Tech sector allowed the S&P 500 to fall -8.8%.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX IndexUK IndexUS Index).