Do Not Be Afraid of the Bogleman

Jack Bogle -Now retired at a youthful 89 – photo from The Inquirer

In fact, John “Jack” Bogle earns the embrace of the investing community. He is a “rolled gold” Slack Investor hero. Way back in 1974, Jack Bogle started Vanguard Investments. Bogle’s philosophy was that: instead of trying to beat the index and charging high costs, he would offer a low-cost alternative. High costs were typical of all other investment funds at the time – the Vanguard index fund would try to closely follow the index performance over the long run – thus achieving higher returns with lower costs than the costs associated with actively managed funds.

Average expenses for an actively managed mutual fund run to about 2 percent annually. Investors can avoid that by using low-cost index funds – Jack Bogle

Almost single-handedly, Jack Bogle changed the landscape for individual investors. Before Vanguard, there as no real choice for someone that wanted to invest in shares but didn’t have the will (or knowledge) to invest in individual stocks through a broker. The small investor would have to hand their cash to a managed fund – who would gratefully accept an up-front fee, at least 2% yearly management fee, plus a trailing commission. The typical Vanguard retail fund charges less than 0.90% for domestic or international shares – This is a great way to start investing  and avoiding the fees of retail managed funds – Empower yourself!

However, Slack Investor recommends you really get serious about owning your own future and “bite the bullet” and start your own broker account. Slack Investor uses Commsec … but if he was starting from scratch he would use a low-cost broker such as the 2018 Money Magazine  winner SelfWealth – at $9.50 per trade. Using a broker, you can buy the same Index funds offered by Vanguard (as a retail managed fund) on the stock market as an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – at a substantially reduced rate! e.g., Vanguard ASX 300 Index ETF  VAS (Management Expense Ratio 0.14%); Vanguard World Index – ExAustralia ETF VGS (Management Expense Ratio 0.18%)

Bogle argues for an approach to investing defined by simplicity and common sense. Slack Investor likes this. Bogle has eight basic rules for investors:

  1. Select low-cost funds
  2. Consider carefully the added costs of advice
  3. Do not overrate past fund performance
  4. Use past performance to determine consistency and risk
  5. Beware of stars (as in, star mutual fund managers)
  6. Beware of asset size
  7. Don’t own too many funds
  8. Buy your fund portfolio – and hold it
Percentage of “Active” Funds that under-perform the benchmark over 10 years- Data as at 31 December 2017- Source Vanguard

The Vanguard data above shows that over a 10-yr period, less than 25% of active funds outperform index funds. JL Collins points to research that over a 30-yr period, less than 1% of active funds outperform.

Bogle has more fans than just Slack Investor. An entire community of “Bogleheads” has been inspired by his approach to investing. They run a forum that dispenses (mostly US-based) investment, money issues, and retirement planning advice that gets a remarkable 4 million hits a day. Jack Bogle likes to …

to give ordinary investors a fair shake.” – Jack Bogle

Slack Investor likes Jack Bogle’s approach and is not afraid of the Bogleman. He owns an ASX ETF Vanguard fund VAE that has management costs of 0.40% (1-yr performance 12.51%)

July 2018 – End of Month Update … and Upcoming Reporting Season

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK and Australian index shares.

It has been a good start to the financial year in all followed markets. Rises in the Australian Index (+1.4%), the UK Index (+1.5%), and the US index up a remarkable 3.6%. Slack Investor is cautious – but not afraid. Bull Markets are where the investor makes money. Stop losses are the insurance that enables sleep at night.

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Reporting season for end of FY 2018

Related image
Robert Hays as Ted Striker apprehensive about landing the plane in Flying High (Airplane!) gif from source – may be subject to copyright.

Despite the general market indicies doing well, July 2018 has seen some of the big Slack Portfolio achievers in the last financial year lose a bit of their froth. Although not quite as nervous as Ted Striker, Slack Investor is a “on alert” about the impending reporting season. The animated gif above is from the classic 1980 film Airplane (or Flying High) – and the full movie is most worthy of a viewing when the tension of the season becomes too great.

Australian companies are obliged to report on their earnings at least twice a year within two months of putting a line under their balance sheet. As 30 June marks the end of the financial year, the main reporting season takes place during August when most companies release their full-year results to the market. The accountants have been busy collating the figures and the management team has crunched the numbers and are ready to give updates on their company earnings and project some earnings outlooks. The CEO may offer his take on any changes to the economic environment at the shareholder meeting.

The day of this report release is usually the most momentous …

51 per cent of the two hundred and sixty major results (Last year) saw their share prices move more than 3 per cent on the day of their results. 35 per cent moved more than 5 per cent and 11 per cent moved by 10 per cent.Marcus Padley in this report

There are strict rules on keeping this financial market sensitive information “in house” till the date that the results are announced. This way, everybody gets this information at the same time. Sounds fair … but sometimes information inadvertently leaks out and a decline in the share price is noticed before the actual reporting date … or, it might just be that after a sharp rise in price, the short term traders are just taking profits. There are a lot of possibilities – and it appears that something is going on with one of my major holdings Altium (ALU). There is a distinct decline in price since financial year 2019 started.

Daily chart Altium – from Incredible Charts

Regardless, I will leave action to the short-term traders, as at the end of July, ALU  finished above my monthly stop loss ($19.16). Slack Investor has a plan and remains above the daily market murk and has an approach that has got him through so far. Let the market do what it must do – and if, at the end of the month, the stock price is below the monthly stop loss – then sell.

In Flying High (Airplane!), Ted Striker had a pretty good result. He overcame his fear of flying, landed the plane safely and won back the affections of his ex-girlfriend. Slack Investor is not aiming for this Hollywood finish but I have overcome my fear of rapid price declines – they are just part of investing in growth stocks.

I am diversified, have a plan and have stop losses for protection. (OK … slightly flushed with the exhilaration of reporting season!)