Financial Year 2025 – Full Slack Results

‘In God we trust; all others bring data.‘

W. Edwards Deming Statistician/Consultant (1900–1993)

Slack Investor likes to measure things, especially long-term results. In the world markets, for FY 2025, the FTSE 100 Total Return Index was up 10.8% (FY 2024 up 11.8%). Dividends helped the Australian Accumulation Index to be up 9.0% for the financial year (FY 2024 +12.2%). The S&P 500 Total Return Index is again the top performer – and was up 15.2% (FY 2024 +24.2%). All of these Total Return Indices include any accumulated dividends.

Slack Investor has stuck to his strategy of mostly investing with growing companies that are profitable (Return on Equity >15%), have an established earnings record and, not too expensive (forward P/E ratios <50). He expects a bit of volatility in his growth oriented investment portfolio. He is reassured that, despite the odd negative year in the Slack Fund, the dividends and his separate Stable Income portfolio are doing what they should – keeping Slack Investor with enough cash to ‘keep the wheels on’ the Slack lifestyle – should the stock market sour.

Slack Portfolio Results FY 2025

All Performance results are before tax. The Slack Portfolio is Slack Investor’s investment portfolio. He is glad to report an annual FY 2025 performance of +18.1%. Full yearly results with Australian benchmarks are shown in the table below. Slack Investor realises that only long-term results really count.

For property values, Slack Investor is using the Home Price Index supplied by PropTrack. The Index uses median values for each city – I would have preferred calculations that include the net rental yield, but this will have to do. Of course, the real estate industry avoids true measurement of real estate performance by collecting figures only on gross price changes – they ignore the significant transfer costs involved (Stamp Duty, Conveyancing, Bank Fees, etc) and, the costs of any home improvements and renovations.

For FY 2025, the Australian Share market Total Return Index (ASX200 Acc) was up 9.0%. The Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF (VDGR), comprising International shares (42%) and Australian Shares (28%), increased by 12.7%. Inflation is now within the Reserve Bank target – with the CPI at +2.1%.

The Cash rate of 4.3% is above inflation. Cash is important – but not a way to grow your wealth. The average readily available cash rate of return since 2010 is 2.6% and, for cpi measured inflation, it is 2.7%.

Yearly Performance (%) results since 2010

The Slack Fund yearly Internal Rate of Return (IRR) vs BENCHMARKS. The Median Balanced Fund (41-60% Growth Assets), Vanguard Growth Fund, ASX 200 Accumulation Index, PropTrack Home Price Index in both Brisbane and Melbourne, and Cash (Australian Super Cash Fund) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). AV. YEARLY is the annual mean of all the data since 2010.

5-yr Average Annual Performance

Although Slack Investor collects yearly figures, the 5 and 10-year compound annual performance gives me a much better idea about how things are really going. Long-term results will smooth out any dud (or remarkable!) yearly figures. The Slack Fund is still ahead of most Benchmarks – but running a close second is Brisbane Residential real estate over a five-year period.

The Slack Fund average 5-yr compound yearly return vs BENCHMARKS in chart form.

10-year compound annual rate of return

The Slack Fund has been around a while and generating some good long term data (10-year compound ‘rolling’ annual rate of return). Over this time frame, the Slack Fund has been performing very well. For FY 2025, a 10-year annual rate of return of over 17% – Go Slack Fund! The 10-yr data is shown below in table and chart form.

It is useful to note that, the 10-yr rates of return for the Median Balanced Fund, Vanguard Growth fund, ASX200, and residential property in Brisbane and Melbourne are also good long-term investments. These appreciating assets generate a 10-yr compound annual rate of return in the region of 6-9% p.a.

The Slack Fund average 10-yr compound yearly return vs BENCHMARKS in table form. Prior to 2022, 10-yr Vanguard Growth fund figures were not available. AV. YEARLY is the annual mean of all the data since 2019.

Although Cash is necessary to add stability and flexibility to a portfolio. From the chart below, Cash as a long-term investment vehicle, is a poor choice.

The Slack Fund average 10-yr compound yearly return vs BENCHMARKS in chart form.

15-year compound annual rate of return

Perhaps because Slack Investor is showing signs of age, he notices that there is enough accumulated data for rolling 15-yr rates of return. Happy to report solid long-term results.

The Slack Fund average 15-yr compound yearly return vs BENCHMARKS in table form.

Growth of a $10 000 Investment Since 2009

The beauty of compounding with a succession of good performance results can be seen in the chart below showing the growth of an initial investment in June 2009 of $10 000.

The growth of $10 000 invested in the Slack Fund vs BENCHMARKS. The Median Balanced Fund (41-60% Growth Assets), Vanguard Growth Fund, ASX 200 Accumulation Index, PropTrack Home Price Index in both Brisbane and Melbourne, and Cash (Australian Super Cash Fund).

The Slack Fund has exceeded my expectations. Also, the chart shows that investing in either shares or residential property has been a solid way of growing your money over the long term.

FY 2025 Nuggets and Stinkers and July 2025 – End of Month Update

‘Do not judge me by my success, judge me by how many times I fell down and got back up again.’

Nelson Mandela

Slack Investor is obviously not in Nelson Mandela’s league … but I do admire President Mandela’s resilience. Learning to live with stock prices that go down is an important part of successful investing.

This post is a bit of an annual ‘poke around’ in the portfolio. The percentage yearly returns quoted in this post include costs (brokerage) but, the returns are before tax. This raw figure can then be compared with other investment returns.

I use the incredibly useful Market Screener to analyze the financial data from each company. This excellent site allows free access (up to a daily limit) to their analyst’s data, on the financials tab for each stock, once you register with an email address. Slack Investor extracted the predicted 2027 Price/Earnings (PE) Ratio and Return on Equity (ROE) and average forecast revenue growth for the financial years 2025, 2026 and 2027. He then condensed all this information into one number, the Slack Factor, to make things easy for Slack Investor’s limited brain. The Slack Factor is still ‘experimental’ but, increasingly, Slack Investor is using it to differentiate between stocks – the higher Slack Factor, the better.

Slack Investor Stinkers – FY 2025

Financial year 2025 was big on volatility. Despite this, Slack Investor’s followed markets all ended up with solid total returns when dividends are taken into account. Australia +9.0%, the UK +10.8%, and the US +15.2%. Slack Investor knows that stinkers are a part of the game, even in good years – and managed to attach himself to a few stinkers along the way.

Webjet (WEB + WJL) -46%

This is a complicated story as Slack Investor bought into Webjet (WEB) which then split into two entities. The ‘sizzle’ was that Web Travel Group contained a wholesale booking business that was growing fast. Suffice to say, that sales didn’t meet expectations and both companies sank. He then lost faith and sold both. When it comes to the travel business, Slack Investor wants to be only a consumer as there seems too much competition in this field.

CSL (CSL) -18%

(CSL – Forecast 2027: PE 22, ROE 18%, Av. Growth 14%, Slack Factor 12). CSL is a big holding for Slack Investor (10% of portfolio) and, for the past 6 years, has been rangebound between $230 and $330. It has not had the chart of a growth stock but, they have continued to spend on Research & Product Development at levels around 10% of revenue. This should be a good thing for future earnings. The eternal optimist in me is thinking … this is the year! But, I also thought this last year … and the year before … there is a strong chart signal this year though – the powerful ‘wedgie’! If it wasn’t already such a large part of my portfolio, now would be a good time to buy.

Botanix Pharma (BOT) -12%

Slack Investor entered the murky and volatile world of Biotechs with a small stake (0.2% of portfolio) in Botanix Pharmaceuticals. So far, not very good! It seems there is a lot that can go wrong in this field for startups.

Slack Investor also went backwards with his holdings in Dicker Data (DDR), GlobalX ACDC ETF, and Cochlear (COH) – all now sold. Wisetech (WTC) and Alphabet (GOOGL) were also on the slide but, thankfully now recovering.

Slack Investor Nuggets – FY 2025

Nuggets are a blessing in any portfolio – this Financial Year, there were some bewdies. Slack Investor continues to invest in high Return on Equity (ROE) companies with a track record of increasing earnings. If expectations are met, companies with these qualities sometimes behave as ‘golden nuggets’.

TechnologyOne (TNE) +124%

(TNE – Forecast 2027: PE 64, ROE 34%, Av. Growth 20%, Slack Factor 11). Technology One is a great Australian success story. It sells software as a service to other companies internationally. I first came across this company through Rudi Filapek-Vandyck – who included TNE as one of his ‘All Weather’ stocks. Glad to be an owner of TNE, as well as owning many other of Rudi’s All Weathers. Very highly valued (2027 PE 64) now though!

Pro Medicus (PME) +104%

(PME – Forecast 2027: PE 154, ROE 53%, Av. Growth 38%, Slack Factor 13). Pro Medicus is a developer and supplier of healthcare imaging software and services to hospitals and diagnostic imaging groups. The Price to Earnings ratio is frighteningly high (2027 PE 154) – but Slack Investor is enjoying the journey.

Codan (CDA) +75%

(CDA – Forecast 2027: PE 27, ROE 23%, Av. Growth 20%, Slack Factor 17). Codan is a technology company that specializes in communications and metal detecting. It is one of Slack Investor’s core holdings. CDA has had a checkered past – a nugget in FY 2021 (+161%), a stinker in FY 2022 (-58%), a nugget in 2024 (+54%), and again, a nugget (+75%) in 2025. What has kept me in the stock was its low debt, (generally) increasing earnings, and the high profitability (ROE 23%).

Supply Network (SNL) +70%

(SNL – Forecast 2027: PE 30, ROE 38%, Av. Growth 18%, Slack Factor 23). Supply Network are a bus and truck parts distribution company using the Multispares brand. Although there are competitors in the big-vehicle parts business, what sets SNL apart from the rest is their great management and strict adherence to processes and efficiency. They have consistently held a profitability advantage over their rivals. They have maintained a high Return on Equity (ROE) of 36% even as the company has expanded and grown in price. What a well-run company!

Megaport (MP1) +52%

(MP1 – Forecast 2027: PE 74, ROE 18%, Av. Growth 55%, Slack Factor 13). Megaport provides software that helps other companies to create and manage secure network connections between offices and the cloud. They must be doing something right as their average predicted revenue growth for the next 3 years is 55%! I’m in, but this is one of Slack Investor’s more risky buys!

Nick Scali (NCK) +43%

(NCK– Forecast 2027: PE 18, ROE 28%, Av. Growth 14%, Slack Factor 22). Nick Scali is well known in Australia for importing and retailing furniture. They have done an excellent job of expanding their business in Australia due to their fine management skills. They expanded into the UK in 2024 and have been quietly, and efficiently, getting on with the job. Future profitability remains good (ROE 28%), and PE not too high.

Some very honourable mentions to some top results this year that didn’t quite make the nuggets. BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) +38%; Resmed Technologies (RMD.AX) +38%; XRF Scientific (XRF) +37%; Wesfarmers (WES) +35%; Coles (COL) +29% and REA Group (REA) +24%.

Slack Investor Investments performance – FY 2025

After a bonanza FY 2024, this was a wild ‘Trump affected’ FY 2025. In the Australian superannuation scene, the median growth fund (61 to 80% in growth assets) did manage to return+10.5% in FY 2025.

The Trump Effect – From Zenith Partners

Slack investor has just two piles of funds for his retirement – the Stable Income pile (Cash and Conservative) and an Investments Pile. The Stable income represents around 25% of total retirement funds. I used to rebalance each of my piles after every year, but the stable pile now has enough in it that, together with dividends from my investments, could supply me with enough living expenses to last out an extended (3-yr) bad run of the stock markets. Slack Investor would not be forced to sell stocks. The stable pile has again produced a moderate return of nearly 5% (inflation plus ~ 2.5%).

The Investments Portfolio rise nicely with preliminary figures showing an 18.1% rise at June 30, 2025. A good result for Slack Investor in his growth investments pile. Including the relatively low returns from my stable income pile (4.7%), overall, the weighted return on all my retirement funds grew 14.6%.

For the most part, Slack Investor concentrates his annual performance details for the much more exciting Investments pile.

For Slack Investor, the 5-yr performance is a more useful way of measuring – as it takes out the fluctuations of yearly returns. At the end of FY 2025, the Slack Investments Portfolio has a compounding 5-yr annual return of around 15%. Full results and benchmarks expected next post.

July 2025 – end of Month Update

The new financial year has started off positively for Slack Investor markets. The ASX 200 + 2.3%; FTSE 100 +4.2%; and S&P 500 +2.2%. He remains IN for all index positions.

I have taken the opportunity to adjust upwards the stop losses on all followed index markets. The prices had crept up to around 15% above their old stop losses. See Index pages for details.

All Index pages (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index) and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes.

Battle of the Tech Titans

Thank you Perplexity AI for creating this engrossing image.

Amongst the usual Trump horror stories, a news item emerged from the US that grabbed Slack Investor’s eye.

NVIDIA made history by becoming the world’s first publicly traded company to surpass a $4 trillion market capitalization. – USA Today

This made me wonder about the other US Companies that are now really big and worth a lot of money. It is no surprise that the top 5 are all tech companies.

CompanyMarket Cap (USD)
NVIDIA$4.00 trillion
Microsoft$3.75 trillion
Apple$3.20 trillion
Amazon$2.38 trillion
Alphabet$2.18 trillion

NVIDIA has only been around since 1993 and Slack Investor can remember buying their top range Graphic Processing Units (GPU) when he was looking to improve his home PC. The company has really moved on and started its growth spurt when they decided to design chips and software platforms specifically for Artificial Intelligence (AI). NVIDIA chips and networks are used extensively for AI development and training – and the world is crying out for these products to deal with complex AI workloads.

Dangers of current US Market

US Stock market valuation as at July 5, 2025 – The Patient Investor

According to the Shiller PE , Buffet Indicator, and a range of other measures, the US market is overvalued. Slack investor has even considered deploying his US funds elsewhere. But, amongst the vast array of US choice, there are still companies that will do well – whatever the conditions. Slack Investor has almost 14% of his portfolio in Alphabet shares and, this might be a case of too many eggs in the one basket.

Alphabet is a great company and has done well for Slack Investor but recent developments make him think that their dominance may be slipping as it faces new competitors.

Also, there are a few annoying things that are starting to bother Slack Investor about some Alphabet products. This is tricky … as a share owner, I like my companies to make money but, it is a balance – you don’t want to kill the golden goose!

  • Youtube – what a killer application! However, the amount of ads starting to creep into Youtube videos has started to destroy the experience for Slack Investor.
  • Google Search – has long been my go to search engine, but the dominance of sponsored links and cluttered feel has made Slack Investor start to look at other search providers. The recent prominence of the Google search AI summary is a good step to help compete with the alternatives.

Alphabet is a conglomerate of many great businesses and my whinging about a couple of their products is just nit-picking – thank you Spinal Tap! However, Google search and Youtube ads are important to Alphabet and contribute 67% of total revenue (2024) – both of these businesses are under competitive pressure.

Perplexity

Thanks to a suggestion by Trevor, a keen reader of the blog, Slack Investor has been exploring a new AI based search engine – Perplexity. He is liking what he is seeing so far and using it more and more to search the web. It has a refreshingly simple interface and can be used via an app or a web page (https://www.perplexity.ai).

So far, it has been very useful for even complex tasks. Yesterday, I asked Perplexity to find me a ‘package holiday for Australian travellers that includes 3 nights in Bangkok and 4 nights at a beach resort’ – the results were on point! Further, NVIDIA is backing Perplexity and has just launched an AI-powered browser to challenge Google Chrome.

Time to take a look at this NVIDIA company in a Slack way.

NVIDIA (NVDA.NASDAQ) vs Alphabet (GOOGL.NASDAQ)

Both are big growing tech companies in different parts of the industry. It’s too hard for Slack Investor to look at everything so he will just condense it down to numbers that he can understand. The excellent finance resource Market Screener was used to get the statistics. Where PE (2027/8) is the predicted Price Earnings ratio for 2027/8, ROE is the predicted Return on Equity for 2027, EPS Growth (av) is the average of projected earnings annual growth 2025-2027, and the Slack Factor combines all of these metrics into one number – the higher number the better!

NameSymbolPE (2027/8)ROE (2027)EPS GROWTH (AV)SLACK FACTOR
NVIDEA Corp (US)NVDA26.3572962
Alphabet (US)GOOGL15.2261323

Although Alphabet is still projected to be a growing company, it seems that the growth may be slowing. NVIDIA is currently in the spectacular growth stage and Slack Investor wants to be part of it.

It is not cheap (PE 2025 = 53; Forecast PE 2028 = 26 ) … but great companies seldom are. After some compulsory Tour de France viewing, I stayed up late last night to access the US markets to sell some GOOGL and buy NVDA. After the NVDA purchase, respectively, they are now 5% and 9% of my investment portfolio.

Growth Professionals … and June 2025 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor has a healthy regard for those who make a living based upon their performance. It is a general financial wisdom that, if you are following large companies, you will very probably be better off in the long term with passive index funds.

Percentage of active funds that underperform (orange) over a 15-yr period – Spiva

However, some active boutique stock pickers may have an advantage when it comes to smaller international companies. In this category, 33.65% of active funds are able to outperform over a 15-yr period.

Slack Investor is currently backing his own abilities on the stock picking front. But, there will come a time when I lack the ability or inclination to do the (admittedly limited) research work. Also, there are some Slack Investor readers who would like to outsource this task.

Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund ETF (ASX: HYGG)

I don’t follow individual companies in overseas markets that closely – but there are those that do – and do it very well.

Hyperion are Brisbane-based and started this managed fund back in 2014. They have also offered access as a listed ETF on the ASX since 2021. The ETF would be the way that I would buy it.

HYGG is not a low-cost fund as it has a Management Expense Ratio of 0.70% and an outperformance fee of 20% against benchmarks. The ETF, to date, has not paid a dividend. However, in this case, it seems that the managers are offering good value net of fees.

Growth of the Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund after fees and costs have been extracted since 2014 – Hyperion

One-year performance (2024 May +47.3%) is impressive. However, Slack Investor is after the real grafters who can produce impressive results over the long-term. Hyperion is establishing a case for consideration.

5 and 10 year Performance of HYGG – net of fees – Hyperion

The advantage of an active fund manager is that they can be nimble and take advantage of any opportunities that the Hyperion analysts discover.

Holdings% Portfolio Weight1-Year ReturnForward P/E
Tesla Inc12.2965.9166.67
ServiceNow Inc9.4234.1660.98
Microsoft Corp7.9510.7333.11
Palantir Technologies Inc Ordinary Shares – Class A7.65498.55263.16
ASML Holding NV ADR7.15-20.8128.74
Spotify Technology SA7.1143.2671.43
Amazon.com Inc712.1433.67
Block Inc Class A5.722.8817.73
Meta Platforms Inc Class A4.6141.928.65

Table of the top holdings of HYGG, their portfolio weight, 1-yr return, and forward PE at May 2025.

When it is time to really ‘get on the couch’, Slack Investor would take a look at these blokes to invest his money. This Hyperion crowd seem to know what they are doing.

June 2025 – End of Month Update

The financial year closes and the Australian, UK and US markets are all in positive territory for the financial year.

Slack Investor remains IN for all followed markets. The ASX 200 (+1.3%) and FTSE 100 (-0.1%) moved modestly. It is a continuation of good times in the US with the S&P 500 rising 5.0%. Are our American friends delusional in an expensive US market? Or, is Slack Investor missing something.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.

Tax Issues

The Tax Collector (1883) – Samuel Edmund Waller

OK … the certainties are death and taxes … Right, that’s fine. But, at least there is some discretion over taxes. Who knew that it is quite an interesting subject. The rate which a country levels its business tax can have a profound effect on its economy.

Slack Investor is in Ireland at the moment and, can’t help reflecting on the role of tax incentives and the incredible effect on the Irish economy of the establishment of a Special Economic Zone in Dublin in 1987.

The transformation was accelerated when Ireland’s standard corporate tax rate was reduced from 40% to 12.5% (phased in from 1996 to 2003). – wikipedia.org

It should be noted that Australia’s corporate tax rate is 30%, and in the US, 21%. Because of the Irish tax changes, this made Ireland a ‘Tax Haven’ and a wave of international companies set up entities in Ireland. These include Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft, Oracle and Pfizer.

Multinationals move $16bn from Australia to tax havens each year – From theguardian.com

There are all sorts of complicated tax minimization strategies with exotic names such as the Bottom of the Harbour, the Double Irish, the Dutch Sandwich, etc. Tax authorities are always trying to shut these down, but fighting a tough uphill battle.

The simplest way that multinationals minimize tax is to shift profits from a high corporate tax country to a low taxing country. This is usually done by charging the Australian branch exorbitant licensing or management fees from the parent company.

Microsoft, which took $6.3 billion from Australian customers during fiscal 2021-22, told the ATO that 93.6 per cent of that was not taxable (due to charging a licence fee and shifting profits to Ireland! – edit Slack Investor) – ultimately paying just $120.28 million, for an effective tax rate of 1.9 per cent of gross profits. – From Information Age

Australia is attempting to fight back with new Tax Transparency Laws that will make companies disclose their transactions on a country basis. There is also an Australian/OECD push to enforce a 15% global minimum tax in the countries where revenue is earned.

Slack Investor applauds these efforts but the multinational accountants are cunning bastards!

The Tax Mix

The image below shows, on a country basis, what the percentage of total tax receipts can be attributed to: Personal/Individual Income, (Dark Blue), Corporate Income (Green), Social Insurance Taxes (Gold), Property Taxes (Light Blue), Consumption Taxes (Black), and Other (Brown).

Click for better resolution – From Tax Foundation report 2024

It is clear that, if Australia wishes a tax structure closer to the OECD average, it has to reduce Personal and Corporate Tax and increase Social Insurance taxes (these taxes are specific to a future benefit (e.g. Pension, Disability, etc). Also, in order to make our tax system more sustainable, a priority must be to increase consumption taxes from the relatively low rate of 10%.

Both major parties must work together to achieve tax reform. I sincerely hope that this can happen. But, it will take a group of politicians with a long term view. Good luck with that!

Australian Super – Division 296 revisited

While on the subject of tax, Slack Investor will have one last rip on the proposed new superannuation tax. There has been lots of media about the Australian Government proposed, seemingly inevitable, new super tax. On the legislative agenda is a Division 296 tax on superannuation balances over $3m. Slack Investor has already had a spray about this. Slack Investor knows that there is a need to tax those with big super balances.

There should be incentives to provide for your own retirement but agrees with the Government, that once you have enough money to fund your retirement, all concessions must start to taper off. Slack Investor objects to the design of the proposed tax, it is to be applied to unrealized gains and the caps are to be not indexed.

There is already an indexed cap on the tax-free Pension accounts of $2m (2025). In the eyes of Slack Investor, this amount is plenty for a comfortable retirement. If your pension fund earns just 5%, this is an annual income of $100K. Any extra super can go in your Accumulation account which is currently taxed concessionally at 15%.

The problem is, that there are some super accounts with huge balances that are taking advantage of this Government generosity.

The 2020-2021 data reveals the number of Australians with super balances over $50 million has increased to 135 people – From ABC News.

A Better Way

How about we forget about this silly unrealized gain business and we keep the current $2m (indexed) restrictions in place for the pension accounts to provide for a good retirement income. To raise revenue, the Government should introduce higher taxes on any actual gains in super balances left over in the Accumulation account for super balances over $3m (Indexed). These taxes could be between 15% and 30%.

This would raise some money without the complications of unrealized gains. Everyone should be happy!

Slack Greetings from Galway, Ireland

ASX Paperwork Breakthrough – and May 2025 – End of Month Update

Back in 2021, Slack Investor wrote about the enormous amount of wasted paper generated by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with their CHESS Holding Statements – which they have insisted must be mailed to my address. My feelings expressed in ASX Paper … I’m Drowning! still hold true.

Examples of the reams of CHESS holding statements that have cluttered my mailbox for years

I have never had a dispute with my broker about how many shares I own in a company … and, I am sure, that by waving a paper CHESS Holding Statement that I couldn’t dispute a logged transaction or a contract note. But, in an unexpected (due to very low expectations!) breakthrough from the ASX, they have finally opted for the possibility of a non-postal way of receiving your CHESS Holding Statement. But, of course, they have had to make the transition complicated.

Years ago, when Slack Investor first tried to get his holding statements electronically, he was told on the phone by the ASX that ‘it was impossible’ as they do not hold email addresses – just postal addresses for each holding! Hence the reliance on the postal service.

The ‘Opting IN’ process to get Chess Holding Statements electronically

First thing: Contact your broker

To get this started. you must contact your broker – who, is also your CHESS sponsor for your shares and ETF’s. In Slack Investors case, he has two Australian brokers: SelfWealth and Commsec. Each of them have to be informed – as each CHESS sponsor will have their own HIN for your holdings.

For SelfWealth, they have a link to explain proceedings. For Commsec, there is also a link to show the necessary steps. Slack Investor had to login then navigate to Portfolio / Holdings / View or Edit Account Details. Then elect to receive statements electronically.

In both cases, once you have opted in, you will receive multiple notifications from the ASX. A printed notification mailed to your postal address will confirm the change.

The CHESS statements Portal

There will also be an ASX CHESS Statements Portal registration email – where you will have to establish a username and password plus, an email confirming a change to communication preferences.

Phew … but it’s worth it! Slack Investor suggests you start this process now.

Once your email is registered with the ASX, future holding statements should be emailed. Slack Investor doesn’t even want that – the Broker tally of his shares is fine with him. Slack Investor’s preferred way of interaction will be through the CHESS statements login page – where you can view (or download) your statements.

May 2025 – End of month update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the recently bought US Index S&P 500 and, the FTSE 100.

May has been a good month for UK, US and the Australian Index.

The S&P 500 (+6.1%), the ASX 200 up 3.8% and, the FTSE 100 up 3.3% as the endless tariff fiasco unfolds .

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Stick to Your Knitting

Harvard Art Museum

Slack Investor Market Timing Experiment brings no joy

Slack Investor is aware that there are some people who state that they can ‘time the market’. Marcus Padley, and others, offer such a service to their subscribers.

Slack Investor doesn’t dispute Padley’s claims and has admiration for those who can perform this amazing feat. However, he is convinced that, without following daily, or even hourly, fluctuations in the markets, that this stuff is best left to professionals. The market swings are just getting a little too rapid, short-term and meaningless.

As the result of the China/USA trade talks, the US will lower tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China’s tariffs on US goods will drop to 10% from 125%. This caused the S&P 500 to surge and create enough momentum to trigger the 11-week Directional Movement System (DMS). Slack Investor uses the change in slope of the DMS in his market timing experiment to determine a BUY signal.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart – Incredible Charts. Full chart and commentary on US Index page

Slack Investor’s market timing is below par on the US market and, he will be glad when his 25-yr index experiment, with this small part of his portfolio (<2%), will be over in 2029. On current figures, his market timing for the US Index is 18% behind the ‘Buy and Hold’ strategy. Not very good!

Slack Investor should stick to his strengths

It’s time to stick to things that Slack Investor has been good at. For example, finding profitable and growing companies – that are not too expensive.

In the ongoing examination of my portfolio, Slack Investor has resolved to slowly concentrate the companies that he owns so that they are at the upper end of profitability, growth and affordability. This means a bit of weeding on the companies with a low Slack Factor and, a bit of buying on those with a high Slack Factor.

In the past few weeks, he sold his positions in Macquarie Group (MQG) and Cochlear (COH). Both are solid companies but, they were either, getting too expensive – or slowing down in growth. Both had a relatively low Slack Factor.

To decide what to buy, Slack Investor got off the couch and went to the  Market Screener site to gather information on the companies where he would like to increase his holdings.

NameSymbolPE (2027)ROE (2027)EPS GROWTH (3-YR AV)SLACK FACTOR
Telix PharmaTLX23275059
Supply NetworkSNL31381822
CodanCDA22232021
MegaportMP158186420
Pro MedicusPME130533615
XRF ScientificXRF17181314
CSLCSL19181414
CochlearCOH3425139
Macquarie GroupMQG171296

Where, PE (2027) is the forecast P/E Ratio for 2027; ROE (2027) is the forecast ROE for 2027); EPS Growth is the forecast EPSG for the next three years (EPSG AV). The Slack Factor is a combination of these metrics using the formula defined in previous posts.

The standouts, with a high Slack Factor, were TLX, SNL, CDA and MP1. MP1 is a newcomer to the Slack Portfolio and hasn’t got much of a track record yet. SNL is a great growing company but is already over 10% of the Slack Portfolio. That leaves TLX and CDA. I bought more of both of these to build up their positions in the portfolio.

Keep knitting.

Mining for ideas – and April 2025 End of Month Update

Museo – Deep Down In A West Virginia Coal Mine

Mining for coal must have been a tough gig back in 1909. Slack Investor has had it far sweeter in his mining for good companies that have been beaten up by the recent Trump escapades. Sadly, in these lower price times, he is fully invested. But, even after a beating, it doesn’t stop him thinking about possible future investments. Sometimes the best ideas come from other people.

Quality at a Discount

Livewire is a financial newsletter that offers free subscriptions and Slack Investor is a keen reader. Livewire depends on contributors from the financial industry and is always worth a look. An article by Tom Stelzer of Bell Potter caught his eye on April 8, 2025.

Tom seems like an astute fellow and his methods for sifting through stocks rang a bell with Slack Investor. Similar to Slack Investor he combines growth, profitability and P/E Ratio to come up with a stock list – in an organized way. Slack Investor might argue that the method is not quite as elegant as his Slack Factor analysis, However, Bell Potter do have a standard screen for ‘quality at a discount’ – and this seems far less effort.

(Tom) assesses their potential for growth, earnings momentum and looks for stocks with notable P/E compression over the last few weeks to produce a list of 20 quality mid and large-cap companies that are well-positioned and likely undervalued – Tom Stelzer, Bell Potter

Slack Investor notes that 9 of the 20 stocks presented are currently in the Slack Portfolio. The above tables were just the first sort. Tom then looked hard for those quality companies that were not overpriced. The Post 12MF PE column (12-month future P/E ratio) was used here.

Bell Potter came up with four companies that they consider good buys after the recent slump – they are listed in the table below. Slack Investor has also provided a further screen by calculating the Slack Factor for each of the companies.

The ingredients in the Slack Factor were obtained from Market Screener. Where ROE is the forecast ROE (ROE 2027), EPSG is the forecast EPSG for the next three years (EPSG AV) and, PE Ratio is the forecast PE Ratio (PE 2027). The Slack Factor is then calculated – a high Slack Factor is usually good news.

CompanySymbolSlack Factor
Telix Pharmaceuticals ASX: TLX52
REA Group ASX: REA34
Aristocrat LeisureASX: ALL14
ResmedASX: RMD12

Of the 4 recommended Bell Potter stocks. The Slack Factor indicates that TLX and REA are the standout buys for Slack Investor – at the moment.

April 2025 – End of month update

Slack Investor is OUT of the US Index (S&P 500)! He sold his small US Index holding on Monday 07 April, 2025 at 5048. After the rebound, the latest monthly chart indicates this might have been a mistake – and reinforces his belief that Slack Investor has no great skill in timing the market. The 25-yr market timing experiment will continue till 2029. Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, and the FTSE 100 as, at the end of the month, they were above their stop losses.

Slack Investor has never been a huge fan of the ‘American Way’ but did hold an admiration for their ingenuity and general work ethic. I have never seen such wilful destruction of American international standing in such a short time. As well, Trump’s capricious economic policies have the S&P 500 all over the place. The US Index recovered its losses and rose 10.3% since its 10.0% slump early April. Trump is 100 days in … 1461 to go.

For the ASX 200 (+3.6%) and the FTSE 100 (-1.0%), it has also been a wild month.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Market Value – April 2025 Update

Slack Investor is enjoying the relative calm in the markets over these past couple of days. It is a good time to update the charts for the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE). He first started using CAPE as a ‘value’ tool in September 2021 and, the most recent post on Market Value was for the end of December 2024. That feels like such a long time ago – pre-Donald 2.0. The markets have been on quite a ride since then.

There is some good research that links CAPE to long-term returns … and future returns are what gets Slack Investor excited. The predictive skill of the Schiller CAPE is not very good over 1-yr and 5-yr periods. However, it does show some skill for periods of 10 years and longer.

Shiller P/E and S&P 500 10-year annualised forward returns from 1983. There is a clear relationship between higher CAPE and lower expected 10-yr returns for the S&P 500. Data valid as of 31 December 2023 – Investco

Research Affiliates

For the following charts, Slack Investor uses monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the latest CAPE values – estimated up until 14 April 2025. A ‘fair value’ zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean (average) – click images for better resolution.

ASX 200 CAPE Value – 3% above long-term av.

ASX CAPE values – estimated up until April 14 2025

FTSE 100 CAPE Value – 10% below long-term av.

UK CAPE values – estimated up until April 14 2025

S&P 500 CAPE Value – 32% above long-term av.

US CAPE values – estimated up until April 14 2025

Market value and Market Timing Experiment

The ASX 200 and the FTSE 100 are both within 10% of their 40-yr CAPE average. When within the green ‘fair value’ range, Slack Investor has patience and he will be assessing these charts at the end of the month.

The US index chart was, and still is, above the ‘fair value’ range and Slack investor had the S&P 500 on a weekly check. Last week it plunged below the stop loss and Slack Investor sold. These are early days in the Trump 2.0 experience – given current form, there will be more surprises.

The US Index is just a small part of the Slack Portfolio (1.6%). The bulk of his portfolio is currently riding the market roller coaster – patiently in search of long-term returns.

Market Timing Experiment – Update

Apologies for intruding into your inbox. I like to keep the Slack Investor blog folly to twice a month. But these are unusual times.

The Slack Investor Market Timing Experiment

Slack Investor started his ‘index-timing’ strategy in 2004 with the ASX Index, UK Index, US Index. An earlier version of Slack Investor thought that by monitoring the market at weekly and monthly intervals and setting ‘stop losses’ to know when to sell the index. To know when to buy, he used a momentum indicator called the Directional Movement Index.

Although, there was some initial success over the ‘buy and hold’ strategy, the benefits work out to be quite small on a yearly basis. For example, for the Australian Index there is a 1.2% p.a. outperformance for Slack market timing strategy over ‘buy and hold’.

These relatively small gains would have probably been offset by earned share dividends if I was using the alternative ‘buy and hold’ strategy. Market timing works well when there are sustained periods of bull and bear markets and the changes between the two are not too rapid. The short transitions and the speed of market fluctuations in the last 20 years has forced a bit of a rethink on Slack Investor’s timing the markets strategy.

Instead of monitoring the markets monthly, he has been looking for weekly changes as well. He is also taking the current market value and recent trends into account. Slack Investor is a man of routine and he has now decided to keep the experiment going for 25 years (till 2029). After this, he will probably go for the more appropriate Slack Investor method of doing nothing and adopting a ‘buy and hold’ technique for index funds (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

US Index – Slack Investor is OUT

Monthly chart S&P 500 up until Friday April 4 2023 – incrediblecharts.com

At the end of the past week, Slack Investor conducted a review of the Index charts and noted that the US Index price has slipped below the stop loss (thick red line). As the trend is still downward, and the market is overvalued (see below), it is time to get out. As part of this experiment, I will sell my small holding of S&P 500 Index tomorrow and update the US Index page.

US CAPE values – up till the end of March 2025 showing the index is still overvalued (at March 31). The CAPE ratio is above the green zone.

What about the rest of the Slack Portfolio?

Deep down, Slack Investor doesn’t believe he is very good at timing the markets. The bulk of the Slack Portfolio (97%) is not in index funds, but in growth companies – that are taking a bit of a beating at the moment. That’s what the stock market does in times of uncertainty.

Mostly, Slack Investor will be doing nothing. He will try and distract himself from the self-destructing behaviour of Trump. I cannot remember a time where the whole world was so united in its resolve against the USA. Slack Investor knows that good times (and prices) will return. Slack Investor has his Stable Income Portfolio if he needs cash.

The worst thing to do, from a long-term wealth perspective, is to convert shares to cash in a down market – Slack Investor (and other wise investors!)

On the back burner is my project to sell some of the Slack Investor owned companies with a relatively low Slack Factor – and invest more in those with a high Slack Factor.