For the UK Index fund (FTSE 100), Slack Investor is IN!
Slack investor has a “soft sell” approach when I gauge that the market is not too overvalued. Even if there is a stop loss breach, I will not sell against the overall trend but monitor my index funds on a weekly basis.
Slack Investor has been running his “index-timing” strategy since 2004. Although, till recently, the method has proved to be an improvement on the “buy and hold” strategy, the benefits work out to be a few percent per annum for the UK Index (i.e. 1.3% p.a outperformance for Slack market timing strategy over the FTSE100).
These relatively small gains might have been offset by share dividends if I was using the alternative “buy and hold” strategy. Market timing works well when there are sustained periods of bull and bear markets and the changes between the two are not too rapid. The short transitions and the recent speed of market fluctuations has forced a bit of a rethink on Slack Investor’s timing the markets strategy – and have decided to keep the experiment going till 2024 – then probably go for the more appropriate Slack Investor method of doing nothing and adopting a “buy and hold” technique for index funds.
(Click on chart for a much better resolution – from Incredible Charts)
| DATE | ACTION | FTSE100 | MONTHLY STOPLOSS | FTSE100 CYCLE CHANGE | VALUE OF 10K SLACKINV sinceJUN04 | VALUE OF 10K FTSE100 sinceJUN04 | SLACK INV OUTPERF | SLACK INV OUTPERF (p.a.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28-Mar-24 | LATEST | 7952 | 7302 | 8.4% | $22,320 | $17,814 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 29-Feb-24 | LATEST | 7630 | 7302 | 4.0% | $21,416 | $17,092 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 31-Jan-24 | LATEST | 7630 | 7302 | 4.0% | $21,416 | $17,092 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 29-Dec-23 | LATEST | 7733 | 7302 | 5.4% | $21,705 | $17,323 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 30-Nov-23 | LATEST | 7435 | 7302 | 1.4% | $20,868 | $16,655 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 31-Oct-23 | LATEST | 7321 | 7302 | -0.2% | $20,549 | $16,400 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 30-Sep-23 | LATEST | 7608 | 7302 | 3.7% | $21,354 | $17,043 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 31-Aug-23 | LATEST | 7439 | 7302 | 1.4% | $20,880 | $16,664 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 31-Jul-23 | LATEST | 7699 | 7302 | 5.0% | $21,609 | $17,247 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 30-Jun-23 | LATEST | 7531 | 7302 | 2.7% | $21,138 | $16,871 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 31-May-23 | LATEST | 7446 | 7302 | 1.5% | $20,849 | $16,680 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 28-Apr-23 | LATEST | 7870 | 7302 | 7.3% | $22,089 | $17,630 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 31-Mar-23 | LATEST | 7631 | 7302 | 4.0% | $21,419 | $17,095 | 25% | 1.3% |
| 28-Feb-23 | LATEST | 7876 | 7302 | 7.4% | $22,106 | $17,643 | 25% | 1.4% |
| 31-Jan-23 | ADJUST SL | 7771 | 7302 | 6.0% | $21,812 | $17,408 | 25% | 1.4% |
| 30-Dec-22 | LATEST | 7451 | 6707 | 1.6% | $20,913 | $16,691 | 25% | 1.4% |
| 30-Nov-22 | LATEST | 7573 | 6707 | 3.3% | $21,256 | $16,965 | 25% | 1.4% |
| 04-Nov-22 | BUY | 7334 | 6707 | $19,911 | $15,892 | 25% | 1.4% | |
| 14-Oct-22 | SELL | 6858 | 6989 | 19.0% |
$20,585 |
$15,363 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 30-Sep-22 | SELL ALERT | 6983 | 6989 | 21.2% |
$20,960 |
$15,643 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 31-Aug-22 | LATEST | 7284 | 6989 | 26.4% |
$21,863 |
$16,317 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 29-Jul-22 | LATEST | 7423 | 6989 | 28.8% | $22,281 | $16,629 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 30-Jun-22 | LATEST | 7169 | 6989 | 24.4% | $21,518 | $16,060 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 31-May-22 | LATEST | 7607 | 6989 | 32.0% | $22,833 | $17,041 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 29-Apr-22 | LATEST | 7554 | 6989 | 30.9% | $22,644 | $16,900 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 31-Mar-22 | LATEST | 7515 | 6989 | 30.4% | $22,557 | $16,835 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 28-Feb-22 | LATEST | 7485 | 6989 | 29.9% | $22,467 | $16,767 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 31-Jan-22 | ADJUST SL | 7464 | 6989 | 29.5% | $22,404 | $16,720 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 31-Dec-21 | LATEST | 7384 | 6813 | 28.1% | $22,164 | $16,541 | 34% | 1.9% |
| 30-Nov-21 | LATEST | 7059 | 6813 | 22.5% | $21,188 | $15,813 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 29-Oct-21 | LATEST | 7237 | 6813 | 25.6% | $21,722 | $16,212 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 30-Sep-21 | LATEST | 7086 | 6813 | 23.0% | $21,269 | $15,874 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 31-Aug-21 | ADJUST SL | 7119 | 6813 | 23.5% | $21,368 | $15,948 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 30-Jul-21 | LATEST | 7032 | 6263 | 22.0% | $21,107 | $15,753 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 30-Jun-21 | LATEST | 7037 | 6263 | 22.1% | $21,122 | $15,764 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 31-May-21 | LATEST | 7022 | 6263 | 21.8% | $21,077 | $15,730 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 30-Apr-21 | LATEST | 6969 | 6263 | 20.9% | $20,918 | $15,612 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 31-Mar-21 | LATEST | 6713 | 6263 | 16.5% | $20,149 | $15,038 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 26-Feb-21 | ADJUST SL | 6483 | 6263 | 12.5% | $19,459 | $14,523 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 29-Jan-21 | LATEST | 6407 | 5525 | 11.2% | $19,231 | $14,353 | 34% | 2.0% |
| 31-Dec-20 | LATEST | 6460 | 5525 | 12.1% | $19,390 | $14,471 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 30-Nov-20 | ADJUST SL | 6266 | 5525 | 8.7% | $18,808 | $14,037 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 30-Oct-20 | LATEST | 5577 | 5351 | -3.2% | $16,740 | $12,493 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 30-Sep-20 | LATEST | 5866 | 5351 | 1.8% | $17,607 | $13,141 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 28-Aug-20 | LATEST | 5963 | 5351 | 3.5% | $17,898 | $13,358 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 31-Jul-20 | LATEST | 5897 | 5351 | 2.3% | $17,700 | $13,210 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 30-Jun-20 | LATEST | 6169 | 5351 | 7.0% | $18,517 | $13,819 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 29-May-20 | LATEST | 6076 | 5351 | 5.4% | $18,237 | $13,611 | 34% | 2.1% |
| 01-May-20 | BUY | 5763 | 5351 | $17,298 | $12,910 | 34% | 2.1% | |
| 29-Feb-20 | SELL | 6580 | 7079 | -9.6% | $17,298 | $14,740 | 17% | 1.1% |
| 29-Mar-19 | BUY | 7279 | 6536 | $19,136 | $16,306 | 17% | 1.2% | |
| 31-Dec-18 | SELL | 6728 | 6866 | -7.4% | $19,136 | $15,072 | 27% | 1.9% |
| 13-Apr-18 | BUY | 7264 | 6866 | $20660 | ||||
| 29-Mar-18 | SELL | 7056 | 7196 | 4.9% | $20,660 | $15,806 | 31% | 2.2% |
| 29-Jul-16 | BUY | 6724 | 5788 | $19,688.19 | $15,063 | 31% | 2.5% | |
| 30-Jun-15 | SELL | 6521 | 6693 | 17.6% | $19,688 | $14,608 | 35% | 3.2% |
| 31-Oct-11 | BUY | 5544 | 4868 | $16,738 | $12,419 | |||
| 31-Aug-11 | SELL | 5394 | 5644 | 27.1% | $16,738 | $12,083 | 39% | 5.4% |
| 30-Apr-09 | BUY | 4244 | 3460 | $13,170 | $9,507 | |||
| 31-Jan-08 | SELL | 5879 | 6026 | 31.7% | $13,170 | $13,170 | 0% | 0% |
| 30-Jun-04 | STARTBUY | 4464 | 4291 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
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Below are the legacy charts – for historical record! – when Slack Investor used the ISF.UK ETF as a proxy to base his buy/sell decisions on the UK FTSE 100 Index … I have now started using the FTSE 100 directly (see above).
| DATE | ACTION | ISF | ~ FTSE | MONTHLY | ISF (CYCLE) | VALUE OF 10K | VALUE OF 10K | SLACK INV | SLACK INV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (GBp) | 100 | STOPLOSS | GAIN/LOSS | SLACK INV sinceJUN04 | INDEX sinceJUN04 | OUTPERF | OUTPERF (pa) | ||
| 30-SEP-17 | LATEST | 727.6 | 660 | 9.4% | $21,570 | $16,351 | 32% | 2.4% | |
| 26-Feb-17 | Adjust SL | 721.4 | 660 | 8.5% | $21,386 | $16,211 | 32% | 2.5% | |
| 31-Dec-16 | LATEST | 701.2 | 570 | 5.4% | $20,787 | $15,757 | 32% | 2.6% | |
| 29-Jul-16 | BUY | 665.1 | 6724 | 570 | |||||
| 30-Jun-15 | SELL | 650.7 | 6520 | 17.7% | $19,717 | $14,622 | 35% | 3.2% | |
| 31-Mar-15 | Adjust SL | 666 | |||||||
| 29-Aug-14 | Adjust SL | 652 | |||||||
| 28-Feb-14 | Adjust SL | 637 | |||||||
| 31-Oct-13 | Adjust SL | 630 | |||||||
| 28-Jun-13 | Adjust SL | 602 | |||||||
| 31-May-12 | Adjust SL | 523 | |||||||
| 31-Oct-11 | BUY | 553 | 5544 | 483 | |||||
| 31-Aug-11 | SELL | 539.1 | 5394 | 26.5% | $16,756 | $12,115 | 38% | 5.3% | |
| 30-Jun-11 | Adjust SL | 564.7 | |||||||
| 31-Mar-11 | Adjust SL | 523.1 | |||||||
| 30-Jul-10 | Adjust SL | 481 | |||||||
| 30-Jul-09 | Adjust SL | 411 | |||||||
| 30-Apr-09 | BUY | 426.2 | 4243 | 376.8 | |||||
| 31-Jan-08 | SELL | 589.5 | 5879 | 32.5% | $13,247 | $13,247 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| 30-Nov-07 | Adjust SL | 609.2 | |||||||
| 31-Aug-07 | Adjust SL | 589 | |||||||
| 30-Jun-06 | Adjust SL | 550 | |||||||
| 31-Aug-04 | BUY | 451 | 4459 | 412 | |||||
| 30-Jun-04 | STARTBUY | 445 | 412 | $10,000 | $10,000 |