The cost of financial products is important, and Slack Investor does his best to minimise any fees that come with financial transactions. It is not often I get to talk about two of my favourite finance things in one blog. Vanguard, the low-cost fund trendsetter and superannuation.
Vanguard have long been a fund manager and ETF provider that have been at the forefront of lower fees in the finance sector. The term “Vanguard Effect” has been coined to explain the phenomena that when Vanguard competes in an area, the expense ratios from their competitors tend to decrease.
Tracking the average Management Expense Ratio (MER) for US Index funds – Vanguard
Vanguard Superannuation in Australia
This month, Vanguard launched into the Australian Superannuation space with a product that is transparent and amongst the lowest fees for an accumulation account. The beauty of their offering is the straight up bundling of all their fees into one simple number – 0.58% of your super balance. Of course, Slack Investor would like a lower management fee – but this is a good start.
The Vanguard MySuper Lifecycle product fees depend on how much Super you have. For a $50,000 balance, the total annual fee would be $290, for a $500,000 balance, the total annual fee would be $2900. The transparency is good – Drag out your own Super annual statement and try to work out your own total fees.
Of course, fees are not the only consideration. Many of the Industry funds use some sort of stock picking, and may use private equity to enhance their performance. Vanguard Super is made up of a mixture of index funds. I do like the way that the Vanguard Lifecycle automatically adjusts your exposure to risk as you creep towards retirement. 90% growth assets till age 45, then tapering to below 50% when you reach 60. All this is done automatically by Vanguard.
The adjustment of exposure of the Vanguard Livecycle super between growth and defensive assets as you age – Vanguard
Despite this juicy offering, there is often a lack of engagement of Australian workers with their superannuation. Vanguard will probably have a bit of trouble gaining traction in Australia due to the size and popularity of their industry super competitors. This product is currently only for accumulation accounts at this stage. It is a decent starting point by Vanguard and l0ok forward to details of their pension option (coming soon!). I also am hopeful of a bit of the “Vanguard Effect” to put a bit of pressure on existing superannuation fees – which are still too high.
A note that Slack Investor is not sponsored by Vanguard (or anyone else!), but I own a few of their ETF’s and their original founder, Jack Bogle, is one of the Slack Heroes.
November 2022 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor is now back IN for Australian index shares, UK Index shares and UK Index shares.
Last month’s update describes why I feel glad that my 20-yr index timing experiment is coming to an end in 2024. The frustrating moving out … then quickly back in to my Index funds is getting tiresome. I am likely to become just a “buy and hold” investor for my small portfolio of Index funds.
This month, all markets found there were “Reasons to be Cheerful”. There were positive movements all round. The ASX 200 +6.1%, the FTSE 100 +3.3% and the S&P 500 +5.4%.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
Cathie Wood is the CEO of Ark Innovation and is best known for her NASDAQ based flagship fund ETF (ARKK). She has been concentrating her bets on the “disruptive technologies,” such as artificial intelligence, genomics, blockchain and cryptocurrency, and clean energy. She is a big fan of Tesla and has made the prediction
Slack Investor is no seer … but at the October 14, 2022 price of 16240 USD, Bitcoin has quite a way to go to reach that mark. In the words of the great BBC TV character Sir Humphrey, this looks like a “very courageous” prediction Cathie!
The ARK Innovation ETF (Nasdaq: ARKK)
Wood, is a devout Christian, and has named her company after the sacred Ark of the Covenent. Cathie Wood is a household name in the US and has a huge number of loyal fans. Her funds had 60 billion USD under management at their peak. She was named by Bloomberg as Stock Picker of the Year in 2020 . The flagship ARKK fund gained a remarkable 152% in 2020, but since then, the performance has not been so stellar – ARKK is down 65% so far this year. In interviews, she often refers to her past success, and insists, over and over again, her performance should be judged over a five-year time horizon.
The Price chart of the ARKK ETF since 2017 –
Wood is nothing but confident. She hosts a monthly finance video – delightfully called “In the Know” and is a great defender of her fund. She sees “spectacular returns” for Ark Invest over the next five years. According to a recent article by New York magazine, her initial predictions for ARK Invest were annualized returns of 15 percent, “Now we think 50 percent.”
Slack Investor would agree that a 5-yr holding period is a good minimum to judge how a fund is performing – to allow for volatility and to allow growth stocks to grow. She might be right that tech stocks are undervalued at the moment. But let’s have a look at her results as a fund manager over the last 5 years. The total return of ARKK expressed as a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since November 2017 was a not so impressive 3.5% when compared with other “no stock picking” index funds.
Instrument
Value Nov 2017
Value Nov 2022
5-yrCAGR
ARKK
36.44
43.31
3.5%
NASDAQ 100 TR
7159
13881
14.2%
S&P 500 TR
5212
8407
10.0%
FTSE 100 TR
6510
7564
3.1%
ASX 200 TR
56486
81102
7.5%
Based upon the 5 years preceding November 2022, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of various Total Return (TR) index values compared with the ARKK ETF (including dividends since Nov 2017 of $2.91 USD). These TR calculations include dividends. Data from Yahoo Finance and CAGR calculations from CAGRCalulator
Cathie Wood conducted a recent session at a Morgan Stanley event in Sydney. where she maintained her bullish outlook. According to the Financial Review, the fund manager essentially argued it’s the market that’s got it wrong, not her!
Slack Investor is far more humble … he “takes his licks” when times are bad – doesn’t “crow” when times are good – and is mostly wary when a new “stock guru” emerges.
In the stock market, volatility is the price he has to pay for being involved with long-term asset growth.
November 2022 – Mid-Month Update
My small-scale, and often very frustrating, market timing experiment continues until its projected end in 2024. On a weekly signal for the FTSE 100 from the momentum following Directional Movement system. I have bought back into the UK index. I am back now to fully invested in the ASX Index, UK Index, US Index.
The buy signal can show itself as a downward dip in the trend strength indicator ADX (grey line) of the lower panel below. There are many ways of setting up this Directional Movement system. Slack Investor likes the “smoothing” that is enabled by a system that looks back over the previous 11 periods – but the complexities are best left for the Resources page.
In amongst the general carnage of the market, Slack Investor has been doing a little buying. An opportunity came up with an existing holding. Dicker Data (DDR). DDR is an Australian-based technology hardware, software and cloud distributor.
From time to time, a company will go to institutions and shareholders to raise a bit of working capital using a Share Purchase Plan (SPP). Dicker Data (DDR) needed to expand its warehouse facilities. Fair enough – but does Slack Investor want to part with more cash to invest in this company? Lets take a fresh look using the excellent Market Screener Financials Page. The Slack “basics” of a high return on equity (38.7% in 2022) and projected growth – on top of an established period of growth – are still intact – Tick
DDR – Historical (Black)and analyst projected income growth (grey) till 2024 – Market Screener
The price of DDR has been generally “beaten up” in the last 6 months as interest rates have risen and growth stocks have suffered. There are probably some more tough times ahead … but Slack Investor likes to take the “long view”. This business has a long term growth strategy and will probably persevere despite current headwinds – Tick.
DDR – Analyst projected PE ratio till 2024 – Market Screener
The current DDR Price/Earnings ratio is 22.9 – below recent values and projected to reduce further as income increases. – Tick.
Although analyst predictions can be wrong, on balance, the miserly Slack Investor was happy to part with a few dollars in this Share Purchase Plan as he could find some value in this business. There is every prospect that the DDR share price will increase in the next few years.
Finding Index value using CAPE
As with individual companies, the whole share market will oscillate betwee overvalued and undervalued. Slack Investor has written about the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE) which use ten-year average inflation-adjusted earnings to take out some of some of the volatility of annual earnings. By plotting this CAPE over a period of time, we can look at how the whole sharemarket is currently valued in terms of historical data.
Using monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the CAPE values. A “fair value” zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean.
Historic CAPE ratios for ASX 200 – From 1982 to September 2022Historic CAPE ratios for FTSE 100 – From 1982 to September 2022Historic CAPE ratios for S&P 500 – From 1982 to September 2022
From the above, The ASX 200 (7% below av.) and the FTSE 100 (13% below av.) are “On Special” at the moment as their CAPE values are below their long-term averages. Even the S&P500, after a long 2-yr period of being “Over valued”, is now getting close to being “Fair valued”.
October 2022 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares though it is still on watch after breaching its stop loss at the end of September 2022.
My last post described how I had left the UK and US Index in the middle of October 2022. I am now back IN to the US Index – and, for the moment, OUT of the UK Index. Although, I am keeping a weekly watch on the FTSE 100 in case there is a signal to return to the market.
This month illustrates why I feel glad that my 20-yr index timing experiment is coming to an end in 2024. After exiting the US and UK markets only 2 weeks ago, there has been a rally in both the US Index S&P 500 and (to a lesser extent) the FTSE 100. The momentum has been sufficient for Slack Investor to be “whip-sawed” back into the US Index on a weekly buy signal – I am starting to get “really over” this timing the market experiment.
For the experiment, Slack Investor uses a trend following (or momentum) system called the Directional Movement Index. The buy signal shows itself as a downward dip in the ADX (grey line) of the lower panel below. There are many ways of setting up this system. Slack Investor likes the “smoothing” that is enabled by a system that looks back over the previous 11 periods – but the complexities are best left for the Resources page.
Randall Reeves encounters a storm in the Indian Ocean in 2017 – Is this what the current stock market turmoil feels like?
Slack Investor loves finding out about remarkable achievements. He came across the inspiring story of Randall Reeves who set himself the task of doing a solo “figure of 8” circumnavigation around the Americas and the Antarctic. This 64 400 km trip encompassed both polar regions and was achieved solo, in the 14m boat “Moli”, in 384 days.
… he (Randall) hit a severe storm in the Indian Ocean. Waves were breaking 200’ (61m) to 300’ (91m) in each direction, and his boat got knocked down so intensely his mast was fully submerged, breaking a window in the pilot house and flooding his electronics.
I mention Randall Reeves achievements as he set himself a difficult challenge, that no one had achieved before, and succeeded on his second attempt. All we investors have to do, is pick a course to financial independence – and just keep going. Our boat might suffer a few perils along the way …. but we trust that it is a sound vessel – and it will get us home.
Bear Markets
The 9 MSCI “All Country” World Index Bear markets in the 42 years since 1980 and January 2022 With an overlay in grey of the actual MSCI AC Index. – Vanguard
Downturns aren’t rare events: Typical investors, in all markets, will endure many of them during their lifetime.
Slack Investor can speak with some experience here, as I have been an investor through all of the above bear markets … and they are never any fun! But, I have learned that … they all pass – and the stock market recovers, and always reaches new highs. The sometimes frustration of just “holding on” to your shares in a falling market must be weighed against the stresses of trying to time the market.
Keep on Course
Slack Investor has had mixed success in his timing the market experiment. The experiment is limited to index funds (Less than 3% of my Portfolio) and will run for another 2 years to make it a 20-year trial.
At the end of September 2022, my Index Timing strategy has outperformed the Australian Index (+1.4% p.a.) and the UK Index(+1.9% p.a.), but underperformed the US Index (-0.3% p.a.). My current feeling is that when considering that “time out of the market” means a loss of dividends, it is not worth the stress and effort and I will probably abandon the experiment in 2024 – after a 20-yr trial. The bulk (97%) of my Investments portfolio is run with the strategy of trying to buy good companies that are growing, tinkering a little, but generally just holding on!
The world MCSI AC Index is dominated by US companies (61.3%). The current 2022 World MCSI ACWI bear market is not shown in the above chart. Also, there is some argument whether the 2020 “Covid Crash” qualifies under the generally accepted definition of a Bear Market – a decline of 20%, or over, that lasts at least 2 months.
We humans naturally feel the need to do something when we see our investments fall in value. Slack Investor does not know if the worst is over, probably not! Slack Investor does know that, if you can avoid it, it is generally not a good idea to get rid of your risk-exposed assets during times of downturns – you are selling your assets cheaply in these times.
Vanguard have (below) kindly extracted the Bull markets (shaded in green) from the Bear markets (shaded in brown) for the MSCI All Country World Index since 1980 prior to January 2022. The Bull’s prevail and these pesky Bear markets will eventually pass – This chart is reassuring.
The Bull (shaded in green) and the Bear markets (shaded in brown) for the MSCI AC World Index since 1980. The gains/losses are expressed in percentage terms. – Vanguard
The World Index (MSCI AC), the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq are now in a bear market, and the S&P 500 has closed at a new 2022 low.
We might not be on a solo circumnavigation through dangerous waters … but the lesson here is to prevail. Tighten the belt if you have to, you have a plan! Endure the situation and try to distract yourself from the stock market with life’s enjoyable things.
The stock markets will do what they always have done, oscillate between over-priced to under-priced. The long-term gains provided by holding shares are well established. If you are still working, your regular saving and investing will be buying lots of shares through dollar-cost-averaging.
If you are retired, in these tough times, you have your stable income pile to help with your living expenses. There will be better times.
September 2022 – End of Month Update
Despite the above discussion, my small scale market timing experiment continues. Slack Investor is on SELL ALERT for Australian index shares (ASX 200), the US Index (S&P 500) and the UK Index (FTSE 100).
I have a “soft sell” approach when I gauge that the market is not too overvalued. I will not sell against the overall trend but monitor my index funds on a weekly basis once the monthly stop loss has been triggered.
All my followed Index funds have fallen below their stop loss values. Big monthly falls for the ASX 200 (-7.3%), S&P 500 (-9.4%), and the FTSE 100 (-4.1)%. Time for some distraction from the market carnage. There will be better times.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – ASX Index, UK Index, US Index. The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been recalculated.
Extract from the 2022 Vanguard Index chart (Just the 2008-2022 portion) – the dollar values on the right are the results of investing $10000 in index funds in each asset class for 30 years (since July 1992). – Check out the full glory of the Vanguard 2022.PDF chart – Click for better resolution.
The lessons of long term investing
Every year Vanguard publish their performance data on each asset class. Slack Investor looks forward to this – as it demonstrates the powerful compounding that happens when the appreciating asset classes of Shares and Property are held for a long time (30 years). Although this Vanguard collection of data shows the volatility of asset values in the short term – it also also emphasizes the joys of holding and accumulating shares or property for long periods of time. These asset classes have steadily increased in value over the last 30 years. $10000 invested in Australian Shares in 1992 would have compounded to $131 413 in 2022, US Shares would have compounded to $182,376. Staying in Cash would have yielded $35 758.
Slack Investor says download and study this chart … and work towards getting some appreciating assets … accumulate, then hang on!
Financial year total returns (%) for the major asset classes
In the Vanguard 2022 table below, for each asset class the total annual returns are given and the best performing class for each year is shaded in blue … and the worst in pink. What stands out to Slack Investor is that is rare for and asset class to lead in annual returns (blue) for two years in a row – and there are years where the leading asset class (blue) becomes the worst performer (pink) in the next year. This drives home the often repeated sentence in the finance world.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results – but 30 years of data talks loudly to Slack Investor.
Total returns for each asset class for the 30 years since 1992 – Check out the full glory of the Vanguard 2022.PDF – Click for better resolution.
This table highlights the benefits of diversification across asset classes for the long term investor. Each asset class might be the best performing (Blue shading), or the worst performing (Pink shading) for the year – and might dominate (or languish) for up to two years in a row. However, often a worst performing asset will show up as the best performing asset in the very next year – or vice versa.
Slack Investor is accepting of the negative returns for FY 2022 for most of the asset classes – and is concentrating on the 30-yr average long-term annual returns for holding shares and property of over 9% p.a.
When averaged over 30 years, the asset class and annual returns are : For AUST. SHARES 9.8%; INT’L SHARES 9.1%; U.S. SHARES 11.7%; LISTED PROPERTY 9.3%; and INT’L LISTED PROPERTY 10.7%; This compares with the average cash return of 4.4% p.a.
Slack Investor knows where he wants to be.
August 2022 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.
Inflation fears seemed to have spooked the overseas markets (S&P 500 -4.2 %, and the FTSE 100 -1.9%). The Australian stock market ended up pretty flat this month (ASX 200 +0 6%).
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
“When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it. ”
Lord Kelvin (William Thomson, Mathematician and Physicist, 1824-1907)
Slack Investor reflects on a tough investing year. I have mostly “stuck to my guns” investing with growing companies that have an established earnings record and forward P/E ratios <50. There have been a few lapses (e.g. XRO) which had a forward PE ratio of about 100 when I bought it last financial year … and, I paid the price when the higher interest rates and threats of inflation caused a rapid change in valuation of most tech stocks.
I expect a bit of volatility in my mostly “growth” investment portfolio and I try to reassure myself that, despite the odd negative year in the Slack Investment Portfolio the Stable Income portfolio is doing its job and keeping Slack Investor with enough cash to keep things running. In the world markets, the FTSE 100 Total Return Index was up 5.7% (last FY down 13.8%). Dividends helped the Australian Accumulation Index to be down 7.5% for the financial year (last FY +27.8%). The S&P 500 Total Return Index took a breather at last – and was down 10.7% (last FY up 36.4%) for the same period. All of these Total Return Indexes include any accumulated dividends, wheras the chart below of the ASX 200 for FY 2022, just shows stock prices.
The ASX 2oo Weekly chart for FY 2022- Dividends helped stem the losses for FY2022, but the ASX Accumulation Index is still down 7.5% for the FY – Incredible Charts – Click for better resolution.
Slack Portfolio Results FY 2022
All Performance results are before tax. The Slack Portfolio is Slack Investor’s investment portfolio and it had its first negative year since its establishment in 2010 – with an annual FY 2022 performance of -14.3%. Full yearly results with benchmarks are shown in the table below. It was a challenging year for all of my benchmarks that were exposed to sharemarkets (Median Balance Fund -2.5%, Vanguard Growth Fund -13.0%, ASX 200 Accumulation -6.5%).
Slack Investor seems to be clueless in real estate predictions … I have thought for some years that there must be a sizable correction soon – as the prices are still stratospheric in Melbourne and Sydney compared to incomes. The correction may still yet happen as interest rate rises are yet to take their toll.
The Brisbane real estate market was the place to be for FY 2022 (+25.6%) on top of a big year last year!) – Inflation was also a suprise for the challenged Slack Investor – with the CPI at +6.1%.
However, the five-year compound annual performance gives me a much better idea about how things are going and will smooth out any dud (or remarkable!) results. The Slack Fund is still ahead of Benchmarks – but currently being challenged by Brisbane Residential real estate.
Slack Investor 5-year compound annual rate of return – compared to benchmarks – Click for better resolution.
The beauty of compounding with a succession of good performance results can be seen in the chart below showing the growth of an initial investment in June 2009 of $10000.
The rate of growth of $10000 invested by Slack Investor in FY 2009 – compared to benchmarks – Click for better resolution.
10-year compound annual rate of return
The Slack Fund has been around a while and, at last, I am generating some long term data (10-year compound “rolling” annual rate of return). Over this time frame, the Slack Fund has been performing very well. A long-term annual rate of return of over 15% – Go Slack Fund!
However, the 10-yr rates of return of the Median Balanced Fund, Vanguard Growth fund, ASX200, and residential property in Brisbane and Melbourne are also great long term investments, generating a 10-year compound annual rate of return of at least 7% p.a.
“So the last shall be first, and the first last: for many be called, but few chosen“
Matthew 20:16 – King James Version of the Christian Bible
Slack Investor is not a very religious person – but he is a numbers man and 84% of the global population identifies with a religious group – so I have to go with the flow here. This sort of majority demands respect. The Christian disciple Matthew was reporting on one of Jesus’s teachings. Biblical scholars think that Jesus was trying to point out that Heaven’s value system is far different from earth’s value system.
The “Last first and First last” might also be applied to how some of the Slack Portfolio stocks have been going over consecutive years. There seems to by a cycle of last years Nuggets … might end on the Stinker pile the year after – and vice-versa. Growth stocks have many virtues … but they are not immune to the cycles of price – bouts of overvaluation followed by a period of undervaluation.
The percentage yearly returns quoted in this post include costs (brokerage) but, the returns are before tax. This raw figure can then be compared with other investment returns. I use Market Screener to analyze the financial data from each company and extract the predicted 2024/2o25 Return on Equity (ROE), Dividend Yield and Price/Earnings (PE) Ratio on the companies below. This excellent site allows free access (up to a daily limit) to their analysts data once you register with an email address.
Slack Investor Stinkers – FY 2022
Financial year 2022 was the Pepé Le Pew of all of Stinktown for Slack Investor.I hold mostly growth shares in the technology and healthcare sectors. These sectors have been heavily punished across the world so far in 2022.
This is the first time I have had a negative result for my investments over a financial year since 2009. Slack Investor is a great believer in long term investing returns – usually evaluated over a 5-year period – so this year’s result, while painful, does not change my overall strategy.
Three of my “stinkers” this year were actually “nuggets” from last year. For FY 2020, Codan +161%, REA +59% and IDX +37%. Such is the cyclic nature of some growth stocks.
Codan (CDA) -58% (Still held)
(CDA – 2025: PE 14, Yield 3.8%, ROE 25%) Codan is a technology company that specializes in communications and metal detecting. This company was one of my big nuggets last year (+161%) – so I should not have been really surprised that there could have a bit of a pullback. The decline hurt, but the fundamentals of the company remain sound. Holding on.
Xero (XRO) -41% (Sold)
(XRO– 2025: PE 81, Yield 0.3%, ROE 15%) Xero is an innovative cloud -based accounting provider for small business. Every business owner that Slack Investor talks to say that Xero is a boon to their business. This sort of “word of mouth” got me over-excited this year and I just held my nose and jumped in – against all my rules of avoiding the excessively high forward PE ratios of over 50! It is these high PE companies that are usually punished first in a downturn – and that’s exactly what happened. I still look at it and think its a decent growing business – but I can feel the recent bite!
Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – 39% (Still held)
(IDX – 2024: PE 16, Yield 4.5%, ROE 12%) This medical image company provides diagnostic image services to GP’s and specialists. IDX was another of my nuggets from last year (+37%) that has just shed all of last years gains. The Return on Equity of this company is starting to get a bit low (<15%) – But the PE and yield seem OK. Will keep this company on watch for the moment.
BetaShares Asia Technology Tigers ETF -33% (Still held)
(ASIA – 2022: PE 14, Yield 0.7%,) Growth in Asia … What could go wrong! Plenty it seems.
These “technology tigers” that make up this ETF have been part of a global selloff of tech-related shares this year.
A lot of the Chinese companies (such as Alibaba) have been marked down because the Chinese government imposed its will on a few industries. Also the US government has hinted at action on Chinese companies that have listed on American market. However, the ASIA ETF has large holdings in such monsters as Taiwan Semiconductors, Samsung and Tencent Holdings – so I will accept the current pain and stick with this as a long-term holding
REA Group (REA) -33% (Still held)
(REA – 2024: PE 29, Yield 1.8%, ROE 32%) The owners of RealEstate.com.au. which is the go to portal for house selling and buying. 65% of Australia’s adult population are checking the site every month looking at property listings and home prices. Another long-term holding.
I have only listed the stinkers that lost over 30% this year … sadly, there were many more rogues that lost over 15% for the Slack Fund. They include PPK Group (PPK) -28%; Altium (ALU) -25%; Nick Scali (NCK)-20%; Pushpay Holdings (PPH)-16%; and A2 Milk (A2M)-15%.
Slack Investor Nuggets – FY 2021
Nuggets were few and far between this year. A great benefit of investing in companies that have a high Return on Equity (ROE), and with a track record of increasing earnings, is that they sometimes behave as “golden nuggets”.
Technology One(TNE) +17%
(TNE – 2025: PE 34, Yield 1.7%, ROE 36%) This Software as a Service (SaaS) and consulting company continues to be profitable. This year is the 13th year in a row of record half-yearly profits. A high 2025 PE of 34 (Expensive) is a little scary but, if the high Returns on Equity (36%) remain, on balance, this is OK.
Macquarie Group (MQG) +10%
(MQG – 2025: PE 25, Yield 4.0%, ROE 13%) Macquarie is a complex business with a range of banking and financial services, and plays in global markets and asset management. Once again, the management seem to know what they are doing – Slack Investor remains a fan.
Honourable mention to the only other company that ended in the black – Coles (COL) a decent +8% in these troubled times.
Slack Investor Total SMSF performance – FY 2022 and July 2022 end of Month Update
In a year that Chant West describes as “a rough year for markets”. Following FY2021, which was one of the strongest years for Super funds (+18% for FY21), things have now lurched south with the median growth fund (61 to 80% in growth assets) returning -3.3% for FY22.
The FY 2022 Slack Investor preliminary total SMSF performance looks like coming in at around -14%. However, the 5-yr performance is a more useful benchmark to me – as it takes out the bouncing around of yearly returns. At the end of FY 2022, the Slack Portfolio has a compounding 5-yr annual return of over 13%.
Despite a breach of the stop loss for the ASX 200 last month, Slack Investor remains tentatively IN for Australian index shares on a dramatic rise of 5.7% this month. The FTSE 100 also had a good month (+3.5%)and I remain IN. The US Index S&P 500 eclipsed them all with a remarkable 9.1% gain – and I am now a BUY back IN.
Last month the ASX 200 price went below its stop loss. Slack Investor tries not to exit a stock against the momentum of the market, so I have been off the couch and closely watching the ASX 200. It has remained above the rising trend line and emerged above the monthly stop loss. I am tentatively still IN.
After a sell, it is important to have a notion when to get back IN to an Index or a stock. When trend trading, my main tool for finding a buy signal is a trend following (or momentum) system called the Directional Movement Index. There are many ways of setting up this system. Slack Investor likes the “smoothing” that is enabled by a system that looks back over the previous 11 periods – but the complexities are best left for the Resources page.
In addition to the BUY signal from the Directional Movement Index for the S&P 500, the charts show a triggering of the “Wedgie” pattern where the stock price breaks through a long term down-trend. This reinforces the BUY.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
In addition to the trading … and mostly holding onto individual companies, Slack Investor has been running an experiment on market timing for Index funds in the Australian, UK and US markets. The Index funds have been doing OK .. but Slack Investor is generally just finding that timing markets is just too hard and is hinting at an end to the timing experiment in 2024.
As a recap on the experiment so far, I am still outperforming the “Buy and Hold” investor in all followed markets – but the advantage is slim. Per annum outperformance is 1.4%, 1.9% and 0.6% for the ASX, UK and US markets respectively. Not really fantastic results when you consider that I am missing out on the dividends that “buy and holder’s” receive when I am “timed” out of the markets.
The Slack Index “timing the market” method was devised with a lot of back-testing on 30-years of market performances and does really well when sustained bear markets occur as it gets out of the market at a hopefully early stage in the price downturn. Ideally, the Slack method should stay in the market for the smaller fluctuations (corrections <~10%) and get out of stocks before it becomes a full bear market. The problem with my current strategy is that I am getting “whipsawed” out of the market in these smaller downturns – and the big swings seem to happen so quickly that the damage is done before I can get off the couch.
Things were much easier in the accumulation stage – I had set amounts of money coming out of my pay each month that would be automatically invested into my trading account. With dollar cost averaging, if the market went down, it would just mean that I would be able to buy a greater number of shares – all good.
It is different in retirement mode … as, I am not a net buyer of shares now and, as I am usually am fully invested, it is difficult to take advantage of a lower-priced market. These days, the stock market downturns are just something to be endured.
S&P CAPE data showing the 1950-2022 average (mean) P/E value of 19.8 (baselined as 0%), as well as horizontal bands showing standard deviation bands. As of June 24, 2022, the S&P500 P/E ratio is 47% higher than the 1950-2022 average – From Current Market Evaluation.
Current Market Valuation define the market as “Fairly Valued” if the CAPE Ratio is between between -1 and 1 standard deviation from the “average”. If the CAPE distribution is “Normal”, then the CAPE should be ranked as “Fairly Valued” about 70% of the time.
Slack Investor has developed similar charts – but only since 1982. I have used only a short time frame for this analysis as there are good arguments as to why the CAPE should actually rise over time – and a small time range will tend to stop this distortion. The Green shaded areas correspond to the limits of one standard deviation of the CAPE from the 40-yr average values.
Slack Investor S&P 500 CAPE data showing the 1982-2022 average (arithmetic mean) P/E value of 24.3 at the end of May 2022 -“Fair Value” is represented by the green shaded area. Despite recent price drops, the S&P 500 CAPE is still well above average (28%) but at least in the broad “Fairly Valued” range now- Data from Barclays Slack Investor FTSE 100 CAPE data showing the 1982-2022 average (arithmetic mean) P/E value of 17.5 at the end of May 2022 -“Fair Value” is represented by the green shaded area. The FTSE 100 CAPE is close to its 40-yr mean and well into the “Fairly Valued “range – Data from Barclays Slack Investor ASX 200 CAPE data showing the 1982-2022 average (arithmetic mean) P/E value of 20.4 at the end of May 2022 -“Fair Value “is represented by the green shaded area – Data from Barclays
Slack Investor gets very nervous when the CAPE charts are well above the green “Fair Value” range. and would love to be a buyer when any of these markets show CAPE values below their 40-year averages.
However, as my “time the market” skills are limited, and my Stable Income pile is still producing, I am prepared to strap in and “enjoy”(not really!) the ride.
June 2022 – End of Month Update
The financial year closes and looking at the 12-month charts for FY 2022 – An official “Bear Market” for the US (>20% fall from a recent high) and big drops in the UK and Australian markets. The “blood in the streets” trend in world index prices have moved the ASX 200 below my stop loss of 6917 – This triggers a sell response.
However, I will not sell against the overall trend. Given that the ASX 200 is bouncing up a little today (01 Jul 2022), this means that I will go to a weekly watch on the ASX 200 – I will now wait till the end of next week to see if the ASX 200 continues to drop – or recovers. I have developed this “soft sell” approach when I gauge that the market is not too overvalued (see above ASX 200 CAPE chart).
Slack Investor remains IN the FTSE 100, TENTATIVELY OUT for the ASX 200, but OUT for the US Index S&P 500 due to a sell in January 2022.
All markets down for the month. The FTSE 100 (-5.8%), the S&P 500 (-8.4%) and the ASX 200 (-8.9%).
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.
Slack investor is accepting that Bill had quite a way with words, and that he may have been making an assessment of how a character’s worth will live on with his own writings. He wasn’t talking about financial worth here – but Slack Investor has often drawn a long bow. It is fair to say that Shakespeare wasn’t a dill with money, as a result of his works, he was well off, but not super-rich. I am not sure if the Bard took his financial independence skills seriously – but he was an investor in land.
Tracking your net worth – particularly your investing net worth – is so important to your financial well being these days. Your investments net worth is a vital number that will be used to fund your retirement income. Using the 4% rule, if you divide your investment net worth by 25, you will get an idea of your annual income that this net worth will generate in retirement.
“When you understand that your self-worth is not determined by your net-worth, then you’ll have financial freedom.”
Suze Orman – American financial advisor and TV and podcast host. She is a prolific finance author – A noble statement, however, not sure I agree with you here Suze. Self worth is so very important – but it’s a long way from financial freedom! Lets work on both.
Measurement of Net Worth
It is a trait of Slack Investor that he likes to measure things and put them on charts. Net worth is no exception. My mother would dismiss such things as crass – but tracking your Net Worth is quite a thing amongst the financial independence set. It is a simple matter of listing your assets and then subtracting your liabilities. Slack Investor likes to keep his house (that I live in) separate from other assets – It is your non-house assets that will fund your retirement.
“Know your worth. People always act like they’re doing more for you than you’re doing for them.”
Kanye West (Slack Investor is impressed with Kanye’s self worth!)
Let’s Smooth things out
The One … the only – Kenny G. Smooth Jazz – Why are people so unkind?
I learned an important investing lesson long ago – about not treating your temporary investment gains/losses as real things. They represent a transitory moment in the great oscillation between the times when the market price for your stocks is unreasonably high – to moments when they are unreasonably low. Such is the pattern of stock volatility.
Slack Investments Net worth tracked on a monthly basis for the past 5-years. The blue columns represent the Slack Net Worth. The red line is the “lagging” average of the previous 12-mth net worth totals. This is close to the “real” Slack net worth.
Although I monitor the price of my investments on most days, and collect monthly investment net worth totals, I have taken a lead from Kipling on how I treat these totals.
“If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster. And treat those two impostors just the same.”
Because I grudgingly accept volatility as a price to pay for involvement in the wealth creating aspects of share ownership, I don’t accept the daily or monthly figures as real valuations of the Slack Net Worth.
I put my monthly totals in a spreadsheet and then take the average of the previous 12 months. By smoothing things out, the (red line) gives me an a figure that is close to what I think is my actual investment net worth. The reassuring thing is, that despite some serious monthly investment net worth declines in the past 5 years – December 2018 (-10%), March 2020 (-17%), and May 2022 (-12% so far!) – the red 12-mth “lagging” average line of Slack Net Worth has gone reassuringly upwards. This as been the case since I started tracking 12-mth average net worth back in 1991. An example of the excel spreadsheet that calculates the trailing 12-month Slack net worth can be found in the link below.
Slack Investor is a lover … of cheese. He follows all cheese related literature and was shocked by the revelation that “Death by Bedsheet Entanglement” is highly correlated (0.95 Pearson R correlation) with cheese consumption. The thought that over 800 people died in the US in 2008 at the hand of their sleeping equipment is terrifying.
A quick explainer on the correlation coefficient, it is just a way to measure how strong the relationship is between two variables. The correlation coefficient ranges between +1.00 (perfect positive correlation) through zero (no correlation) to -1.00 (negative corrrelation)
Slack Investor salutes Tyler Vigen here – a bloke who wrote a program that crawls through unrelated government data sets to find spurious correlations. The above chart is one of these random pairs of data that were thrown together by his program. Almost 50 000 of these graphs that show unlikely correlations have been found so far – and one more is produce every minute! Hats Off Tyler.
Correlation does not mean causation
First lecture in Statistics 101
In the cheese consumption case, it is hard to think that eating cheese actually causes bedsheet entanglement. The first step when trying to establish a link between two variables is correlation. Then, most importantly, experiments must be done to show that A actually causes B – Is there a reason that makes sense? Some people link cheese to nightmares, but there is no scientific evidence linking cheese to death by bedsheet … so, this high correlation is probably just due to chance and a limited data set (10-yr). There is likely to be a missing other variable that’s the true driver that causes the correlation. I would speculate that both variables might be linked to general population trends – but this would have to be tested.
Using Sector Correlations in Investing
Slack Investor has been banging on a bit about “Sectors” lately. and despite not feeling the need to match his portfolio with the sectors of the S&P 500 (Or ASX 200), sector analysis can be useful.
My Investments portfolio consists mostly of “growth stocks” in the Technology and Healthcare sectors. The table below shows a high correlation of these sectors with the total market – they will tend to move with the general market during an occasional downturn. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 23% from its November 2021 high – the Slack growth portfolio is down about 7 % so far this financial year – Not fun, but I do expect the occasional down year.
Sector correlations with the US stock Market – A Sector that would exactly move up and down with the US stocks would have a correlation of 1.00. Low scores ie Utilities do not move up and down the same way as stocks. – From Morningstar 2000-2018 data
However, I want my Stable Income pile, 30% of non-house wealth, to be much more conservative. It holds annuities, fixed interest products and some shares. The shares in the Stable pile need to have a low correlation with the general stock market – as, when the stock market does poorly, I want this pile to be OK.
For my Stable pile, I choose stock sectors that are not highly correlated with stock market fluctuations (circled in red below). I already have some REITS (Listed Real Estate – Correlation 0.59), and some Consumer Staples (Correlation 0.57) which Perhaps I should buy some more Utilities and REITS (real estate). When I get an opportunity, I would like to buy some Utilities (Correlation 0.40) for the Stable pile.
I am always on the lookout for spurious correlations and the 19-year data set, in the above table seems sufficient (would like longer!). Do the correlations make sense? For example, it seems reasonable that Utilities would have a low correlation with the general market. It is a sector that would be able to keep its earnings and maintain its stock price – even during a market downturn.
An asset that has an even lower correlation to the S&P 500 is Gold – and is often seen as a “hedge” to to the stock market. Over a 20-yr period (2000-2020), Gold has a correlation of -0.28 with Australian Equities and -0.12 with Global Equities
Gold has a low (and at times, negative) correlation to other assets
Smarter people than Slack Investor provide compelling reasons for including Gold in your portfolio – to improve long term returns. But the pig-headed Slack Investor has not yet overcome his old fashioned view that Gold is a speculative investment that does not earn a dividend or interest.
April 2022 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares and the FTSE 100 but OUT for the US Index S&P 500 due to a sell – back in January 2022.
Despite some big daily fluctuations, the FTSE 100 (+0.4%) and The ASX 200 (-0.9%) ended relatively flat this month. All is not well in the USA where inflation fears and some mixed results from the Tech sector allowed the S&P 500 to fall -8.8%.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
