2017 March – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

The Slack Investor has been true to his ethos and not published any general interest posts for a month … this will happen from time to time … but I will commit to prompt monthly updates for those who follow the US, UK and Australian indexes and who may value the Slack input to their buy/sell decisions – these will be published in the first couple of days of each month.

I have been off to New Zealand. The great advantage of the Slack approach to investing is that I can be away from the markets – even out of internet range for up to a month at a time – the lack of required decisions on a daily, or weekly, basis suits my style.

New Zealand is a remarkable country to which Australia is the older, louder, uglier, more arrogant brother! I had a great time and the the Kiwis would often impress with their manners, integrity and general genuineness(?).

Day 3 Milford Track NZ – Thanks sister-in-law for the photo

We were mostly in the South Island and the scenery was jaw-droppingly beautiful. … I want to go back! Slack Investor and travelling companions are shown casting appropriately shadowy figures on Day 3 of the Milford Track – Nice photography skills from my sister-in law … Enough of the travelogue.

March 2017 has seen rises, in the UK and Australian markets and a refreshing pause with the US Index. It is also dividend season down under and Slack Investor always enjoys this time when each company (hopefully) shows their appreciation for supporting them with a little trickle into the bank accounts.

For more information on parameters such as progressive gains, look on the Slack investor ASX Index, US Index and UK Index pages for updated details – and a look at the charts. I have also updated my Portfolio page – this portfolio page will only be updated occasionally and is not presented as an investment guide – it just shows the type of companies that Slack investor is interested in – mostly growth companies with established dividend records. Next end of month update on the index charts will be early in May.

2017 February Monthly Update

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

Please forgive the early call … but all markets had an ebullient month … and I am off on a holiday. The great advantage of a monthly system for index funds is that no decisions need be made until early April after analysing the end of March charts.

February 2017 has seen rises, in the 3 markets that Slack Investor follows. I am always glad to be able to raise the stop loss on any of my index funds in a hope to trap any hard fought gains. The US market (SPY) had a rules-based rise in stop loss from 199 to 208 – small … but every little bit counts!

The SPY is 236.74 at the ‘end’ of February – a 140% increase since the initial buy. The Australian, and UK markets were bought much more recently (2016) and have had modest increases of, respectively, 8.6% and 8.5%. All rises are based on end of month prices only – Dividends and transaction costs are not included.

I beseech dear readers to mine further on the Slack investor ASX Index, US Index and UK Index pages for updated details – and a look at the charts. Next monthly index update early in April.

I WISH I could save on petrol

 

What is it about people and petrol prices? … OK …not all people!

However, It does qualify as a “Barbecue Stopper” (Thanks Fiona Katauskas … and Tony Abbott?) when the petrol price suddenly rises or falls, its in the news and people talk. It can start up some irrational behaviour. I did know a bloke who would fill up jerrycans of petrol on any fuel price reduction.

Cartoon by Fiona Katauskas – Source

Slack Investor has been guilty of it himself … driving across town to save 4c per litre … and perhaps using the amount of fuel that I am supposedly saving! Fuel prices are important to Australians as only a few Australian cities have great public transport networks – and the car is a necessary evil, and petrol is a non-discretionary expense, in a lot of cases.

WISH cards are gift cards that can be purchased at a 5% discount at a variety of places I get mine through RACQ, a local motoring organisation that has member discounts. You apply online and you can get a physical WISH card or an e-gift card number that you can use straight away at any Woolworths aligned store or petrol station.

5% discount doesn’t sound like much – Why would you bother? – I would usually agree, but, if there is no inconvenience to using the card, Why Not!

Let me give you an example. My current cost for petrol is $1.44 per litre, using the e-gift card (which I buy $500 lots and hide in my car! …I admit, there is some risk here … but so far so good!). The 5% discount is a saving of over 7c per litre – which can be added to any other loyalty discount (usually 4c per litre).

Now, Slack Investor does not want to create the impression that he is excessively frugal – I enjoy spending money on things that I like e.g., travel. However, all day to day expenses should be examined in a rational way so that you can then use any savings to do the things you enjoy – or, to increment your way towards financial independence.

2017 January Monthly Update

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

January 2017 has seen no great plunges, or rises, in the 3 markets that Slack Investor follows. In these crazy times of Trumpenomics, I am naturally nervous – but our stop losses have held for another month.

I am particularly watchful 0f the US market as it is very deep into a bull run. Slack Investor bought in to the US stocks through the ASX listed  SPY – an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that emulates the US top 500 companies. The initial investment was at 98.81 in July 2009 on a monthly Directional Movement Index (DMI) BUY signal. The SPY is 227.53 at the end of January – a 130% increase since the initial buy – a staggering annual average performance rate of over 17%!

The Australian, and UK markets were bought much more recently (2016) and have had modest increases of, respectively, 5.7% and 5.6% .

There are plenty of opinions on where the various markets will be heading in 2017, Slack Investor will admit to being in the first category of investors as described by the American financial academic William Bernstein,

“ There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor –the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

So, Slack Investor tries to follow objective rules that define his stop losses on a monthly basis knowing the markets will do what they do and he can react accordingly. In the mean time, he can relax for another month!

Normally, I would beseech dear readers to mine further on the Slack investor ASX Index, US Index and UK Index pages for updated details – however, due to technical difficulties, these pages, and the Portfolio page, will not be updated this month – they will be updated for the 2017 February monthly update, early in March.

Most Australians Struggle in Retirement – What to do? – Part 2

The previous post identified residential property or shares as likely growth investments that all investors should become friendly with.

The economist Shane Oliver has collected some data on the performance of each of these investment vehicles that goes back to 1926. The graph below uses a logarithmic scale which is quite appropriate for such long term reviews where there is a big range of values. The good thing about this scale is that in percentage terms, a vertical movement of, say 10%, moves the same distance whatever the year However, the downside is that it does visually compress the dollar gains for the higher achievers shares and property – the dollar values on the left axis should be considered in detail.

Looking at the above, it is clear that Australian residential property (blue) and shares (orange) both represent good investments. These values indicate Australian averages and in some markets (Inner city Sydney and Melbourne), property has done even better!

What stands out to Slack Investor is the raw dollar values for each investment class that 90 years of investment would reap. $100 in shares or property would be worth at least a million dollars now. The raw figure returns for bonds (light green) and cash (black) of around $50000 and $20000 in 2016 are much less impressive – If you want growth … shares or property are the big games in town!

The graph above shows that over 90 years, Australian shares are a slightly better investment than Australian property – However, over different time frames, property has done better than shares. Russell Investments have put out a report analysing returns for the last 10 years to December 2015. Australian residential property gained on average 8% p.a. compared with 5.5% for Australian shares.

As well as the past returns from each asset class, there are other considerations such as tax, liquidity,, transaction costs and  ability to gear – Banks have traditionally allowed higher gearing ratios for property (80-100%) compared with shares (typically 50-70%).

Despite these complexities, if you want to prepare for retirement with more than basic superannuation, you must get involved with investing in either shares or property – they are growth assets that, with careful selection, will always do well in the long term – and do especially well in times of economic growth. Investing in these assets inside or outside of superannuation will help provide for your financial independence.

 

Most Australians to Struggle in Retirement – What to do? – Part 1

At some stage in your life, if all goes well, you might be on your way to buying a house to live in and starting to think about the next step of your financial future. If you are lucky enough to be an Australian employee, you will already be exposed to the share market through your work-funded compulsory superannuation (thanks Paul Keating!).  The compulsory super now stands at 9.5% of your wages. So, you might think that your financial future is all taken care of … But wait, some crackpot naysayer from the ridiculously named Committee for Sustainable Retirement Income says

“Even after contributing to superannuation at 12% for most of their working life, most retirees will still not meet the comfortable retirement benchmarks.”

Cripes! We had better do something about this … and the more time that you have to work on this, the better!

A good place to start is adding tax-advantaged “salary sacrifice” contributions to your super. This is a great idea if you are in the last 10-15 years of your working life, but the downside is that you will be locking up your savings until you reach your, quaintly termed, “Preservation Age” – the age when you you will be able to access your super.

If you were born after 30 June 1964, the preservation age is 60 … and, If I was 20-30, I would think that this is too long away off to worry about –  It is a long time to lock up your money! Also, one of the few things that you can guarantee is that future governments will gradually increase the preservation (and pension) age.

So, what can we do to fortify our financial future – The only easily accessible games in town are

  1. Money in the Bank (Online of course!)
  2. Bonds (or Fixed Interest)
  3. Residential Property
  4. Shares

The latter two are generally what I would consider to be growth (above inflation) assets and, although there are risks involved with each, to be serious about growing your money, you must get involved with one or the other, or both!

Through your home or compulsory superannuation you might  already be a little invested in each of these asset classes and might be looking for new opportunities.

A flick through the paper will show you some great opportunities – Investment seminars conducted by self-made millionaires who, for a small fee, would be willing to impart the secrets of their financial success. In this case, Slack Investor would take the advice of ASIC on their MoneySmart site and show great caution.

ASIC suggests seeking independent advice before investing in any such scheme. Slack Investor suggests that you first educate yourself in these matters – and then avoid these seminars like the plague. My Dad would suggest you ask the question – “What are they selling?”

After all these suggestions, Slack Investor is pooped, stay tuned for the next instalment on this exciting episode as we explore further the shares vs property dilemma.

 

2016 December Monthly Update

trend-1445464__180Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

December has been a jolly month for the markets that Slack Investor follows. The US, Australian, and UK markets climbed 1.4%, 2.7%, and 3.8%, respectively.

This is also time to rub the belly and review the calendar year 2016. The Slack Self Managed Super Fund, which is my main retirement vehicle, had a mixed year due to some not so wise investments in telcos and medical stocks. However, it still returned 7.5% overall for the 12 months. This was below the benchmark ASX return of around 11% but well above the online cash rate of around 2%.

As Slack Investor has a general policy not to directly invest in mining companies, it can be expected that the Slack Fund would underperform the benchmark in a year that mining companies did exceptionally well (2016, +52%).

Although the festive spirit prevails, it is good to remind myself of the words of Rudyard Kipling from “IF”

… If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same

Slack Investor tries to follow these wise words of British stoicism and treat the transient good and bad news of the stock markets with some detachment … and remain ever vigilant in a mostly slack way!

See the ASX, US and UK-Index pages for updated details.

Financial Winners

There are many ways to measure a happy and successful life – and financial security is just a part of this. Benjamin Franklin best sums it up

“Content makes Poor Men Rich; Discontent makes Rich Men Poor.”

To be grateful and happy with our many blessings is a good place to start – But, to be financially secure is one of the three tenements of a happy life. My Dad did give me the great advice …

“The only time that you use borrowed money is for the purchase of appreciating assets.”

This meant I would avoid the crippling credit card interest by paying off my credit card balance every month (Admittedly, there were a few slip-ups!) and, most importantly, if I wanted a car or holiday, I would have to save up for it first – and pay cash before the glorious enjoyment of my purchase.

However, (hopefully) appreciating assets like property or shares were given the big tick by my Dad – and it was OK to borrow money for them. I suppose my Dad would have made an exception to the rule if you were investing in yourself. Spending borrowed money on things like education or, if you are just starting out, tools, a work ute, or office equipment – can be justified.

This makes Slack Investor a bit of an outlier in the community considering the amount that the average Australian owes on credit cards. ASIC has a Debt Clock and they point out that there is around $32 billion owing on Australian credit cards, that’s an average of around $4,300 per card holder!

There are some basic rules for getting ahead financially and Noel Whittaker points out the differences between winners and losers in the financial game.

“The winners borrow at low rates of interest, subsidised by the Tax Office, to buy growth assets such as property and shares that increase in value over time. The losers borrow at high rates of interest, non tax-deductible, for consumer items such as cars that depreciate in value.”

You can argue about the fairness of negative gearing and capital gains concessions (I think rightly!) and superannuation concessions (Which have been recently reigned in) – but these are the existing rules.

If you start at a young age with just my Dad’s advice …  and only borrow to invest in, hopefully, appreciating assets – it will be a good start. My Dad was an understanding bloke and would appreciate that there were some cases where the rules need to be broken – i.e. suppose that you needed a car for your job – but he would insist that If I did borrow for a car that I would shop around an get the best loan deal … and hopefully, I would be able to pay it off early.

Slack Investor can’t guarantee financial security – but If you follow my Dad’s simple advice you will be on the right path to be a financial winner.

Volatility … Its Scarey! … Take a deep Breath!

The range of one year share investment returns over a 10-year period – From Fidelity

In the above data collected by Fidelity, it is sobering to look at the range of returns that a share investor can expect over a one year period. By setting stop losses, you can help protect yourself from the very worst of declines – but even with this protection, there will be some bad investment years. Lets look at the worst investment year for Australian Shares shown above (-40%). Even with stop losses, your portfolio might lose 10-25% due to prices rapidly falling before you can act. This is a major hit on your savings and during the 2008 GFC many experienced losses in their investment and superannuation savings that have turned them off share investment forever. This, in hindsight, has not been the best decision as cash returns have been relatively low and, up till June 2016, median balanced funds have improved 86% since this global financial crisis.

But volatility is not for everyone – You must be able to sleep at night!

This week, Slack Investor just had the shock of one of his stocks dropping in price by 37% on an earnings update.  Price swings like this on your hard-earned investment dollars are hard to take and the volatility of the stock market – particularly with individual companies – make share investment a difficult environment for many.

To Slack Investor this is was not great news and though I prefer to make my investment decisions at the end of each month, the price revision has triggered the “not very slack” procedure of a review of this stock. Are the companies earnings still forecast to grow? There is now a daily review of this stock – with a view to sell. The correction may be an over reaction … or just the start of more bad news.

The things that protect me in these moments are diversification and the fact that Slack Investor is a long term investor. There are always at least 20 stocks or managed funds in the Slack Portfolio.

Although at the time of buying, by doing a bit of research on past and future earnings, I am convinced that each individual company will be an enormous contributor to the retirement fund. However, I have been investing long enough to know that things don’t always pan out as forecast … and I have realized that it’s not necessary to get all your investment decisions right … just so long as you get a good portion of them right!

Investing can be tricky at times and during times of market volatility it is useful to take the long view. The 15-year extract above (Shown on a compressed Logarithmic scale)- from Fidelity – indicates what would happen to a $10 000 investment over 30 years in index funds in various markets. For Australian shares the average yearly return is 8.5% over 30 years – but there were some boom times over this time frame. Over a shorter period, Canstar reports a 10-year average return for the Australian Index of 5.5% compared to the, admittedly risk free, cash option of 3.1% over 10 years.

Particularly in these times of low bond and cash yields, if you can accept the volatility of the share market, be willing to live with the occasional investment mistake and have a diverse list of well-managed growing companies in your portfolio – take a deep breath and you will be OK!

 

2016 November Monthly Update

trend-1445464__180Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

There has been US elections, past and upcoming European elections and referendums, uncertainty with OPEC and the oil price … Cripes! Lucky we have the old stock proverb

“The market climbs a wall of worry … and slides down on the slope of hope”

What this means to Slack Investor is that sometimes you have to tune out the noise and rely on the fact that stock markets are a great place for the long term investor. According to Fidelity, over 30 years, average annual returns for Australian shares are 9.5% and for Global shares 7.1%.

In the US, for the world of commerce, there seems to be a feeling of optimism about the upcoming Trump presidency (For me it is a little weird … and alarming, putting those last two words together). I am naturally on alert when markets like the US are at an all time high. However, I have my monthly stop loss to protect me and we soldier on for ASX, US and UK-Index stocks. The UK and US are both well above the 10-month moving average (black line on the monthly charts) and of no immediate concern. The ASX index breached the stop loss early in November but as Slack Investor makes decision on the end of month prices – and they finished well above the stop loss (red line) – no action required. See the ASX, US and UK-Index pages for details.