Slack Investor is IN! – Though, at the end of January 2024, I have made a stop loss adjustment to 4682.
Slack investor has evolved a “soft sell” approach when I gauge that the market is not too overvalued. Even if there is a stop loss breach, I will not sell against the overall trend but monitor my index funds on a weekly basis. However, the US Market has been overvalued for some time – and I will act at the end of the month on a stop loss breach for this market.
Slack Investor has been running his “index-timing” strategy since 2004. Although, till recently, the method has proved to be an improvement on the “buy and hold” strategy, the benefits work out to be a few percent per annum for the Australian and UK index. I am currently under-performing the US Index!
These relatively small gains might have been offset by share dividends if I was using the alternative “buy and hold” strategy. Market timing works well when there are sustained periods of bull and bear markets and the changes between the two are not too rapid. The short transitions and the recent speed of market fluctuations has forced a bit of a rethink on Slack Investor’s timing the markets strategy – and have decided to keep the experiment going till 2024 – then probably go for the more appropriate Slack Investor method of doing nothing and adopting a “buy and hold” technique for index funds.
(Click on chart for a much better resolution – from Incredible Charts)
| DATE | ACTION | S&P500 | MONTHLY STOPLOSS | S&P500 CYCLE CHANGE | VALUE OF 10K SLACKINV sinceJUN04 | VALUE OF 10K S&P500 sinceJUN04 | SLACK INV OUTPERF | SLACK INV OUTPERF (pa) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28-Mar-24 | LATEST | 5254 | 4682 | 40.0% | $43,948 | $46,088 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 29-Feb-24 | LATEST | 5096 | 4682 | 35.8% | $42,626 | $44,702 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 31-Jan-24 | ADJUST SL | 4845 | 4682 | 29.1% | $40,527 | $42,500 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 29-Dec-23 | LATEST | 4769 | 4048 | 27.1% | $39,891 | $41,833 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 30-Nov-23 | LATEST | 4567 | 4048 | 21.7% | $38,201 | $40,061 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 31-Oct-23 | LATEST | 4193 | 4048 | 11.8% | $35,073 | $36,781 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 30-Sep-23 | LATEST | 4288 | 4048 | 14.3% | $35,868 | $37,614 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 31-Aug-23 | LATEST | 4507 | 4048 | 20.1% | $37,700 | $39,535 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 31-Jul-23 | LATEST | 4588 | 4048 | 22.3% | $38,377 | $40,246 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 30-Jun-23 | ADJUST SL | 4450 | 4048 | 18.6% | $37,223 | $39,035 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 31-May-23 | LATEST | 4179 | 3764 | 11.4% | $34,956 | $36,658 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 28-Apr-23 | LATEST | 4169 | 3764 | 11.1% | $34,872 | $36,570 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 31-Mar-23 | LATEST | 4109 | 3764 | 9.5% | $34,370 | $36,044 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 28-Feb-23 | LATEST | 3970 | 3764 | 5.8% | $33,208 | $34,825 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 31-Jan-23 | ADJUST SL | 4076 | 3764 | 8.6% | $34,094 | $35,754 | -4.6% | -0.2% |
| 30-Dec-22 | LATEST | 3839 | 3491 | 2.3% | $32,112 | $33,675 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Nov-22 | LATEST | 4080 | 3491 | 8.7% | $34,128 | $35,789 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Oct-22 | LATEST | 3871 | 3491 | 3.2% | $32,380 | $33,956 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 21-Oct-22 | BUY | 3752 | 3491 | $29,971 | $32,912 | -9.0% | -0.7% | |
| 14-Oct-22 | SELL | 3583 | 3636 | -13.2% | $29,971 | $31,430 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Sep-22 | SELL ALERT | 3585 | 3636 | -13.2% | $29,987 | $31,447 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Aug-22 | LATEST | 3955 | 3636 | -4.2% | $33,082 | $34,692 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 29-Jul-22 | BUY | 4130 | 3636 | 0% | $36,779 | $36,228 | +1.5% | +0.1% |
| 30-Jun-22 | LATEST | 3785 | $36,779 | $33,202 | +10.8% | +0.6% | ||
| 31-May-22 | LATEST | 4132 | $36,779 | $36,246 | +1.5% | +0.1% | ||
| 29-Apr-22 | LATEST | 4131 | $36,779 | $36,237 | +1.5% | +0.1% | ||
| 31-Mar-22 | LATEST | 4530 | $36,779 | $39,737 | -7.4% | -0.4% | ||
| 28-Feb-22 | LATEST | 4373 | $36,779 | $38,360 | -4.1% | -0.2% | ||
| 21-Jan-22 | SELL | 4397 | 4495 | 55.4% | $36,779 | $38,570 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Dec-21 | ADJUST SL | 4766 | 4495 | 68.4% | $39,866 | $41,807 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Nov-21 | LATEST | 4567 | 4278 | 61.4% | $38,201 | $40,061 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 29-Oct-21 | ADJUST SL | 4605 | 4278 | 62.7% | $38,519 | $40,395 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Sep-21 | LATEST | 4522 | 4233 | 59.8% | $37,825 | $39,667 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Aug-21 | ADJUST SL | 4522 | 4233 | 59.8% | $37,825 | $39,667 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Jul-21 | ADJUST SL | 4395 | 4056 | 55.3% | $36,763 | $38,553 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Jun-21 | LATEST | 4297 | 3622 | 51.8% | $35,943 | $37,693 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-May-21 | LATEST | 4204 | 3622 | 48.6% | $35,165 | $36,877 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Apr-21 | LATEST | 4181 | 3622 | 47.7% | $34,973 | $36,675 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Mar-21 | LATEST | 3972 | 3622 | 40.4% | $33,224 | $34,842 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 26-Feb-21 | ADJUST SL | 3811 | 3622 | 34.7% | $31,878 | $33,430 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 29-Jan-21 | LATEST | 3714 | 3209 | 31.2% | $31,066 | $32,579 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Dec-20 | LATEST | 3756 | 3209 | 32.7% | $31,418 | $32,947 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Nov-20 | LATEST | 3621 | 3209 | 28.0% | $30,288 | $31,763 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Oct-20 | LATEST | 3269 | 3209 | 15.5% | $27,344 | $28,675 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Sep-20 | Adjust SL | 3363 | 3209 | 18.8% | $28,130 | $29,500 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Aug-20 | LATEST | 3500 | 2965 | 23.7% | $29,276 | $30,702 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 31-Jul-20 | Adjust SL | 3271 | 2965 | 15.6% | $27,361 | $28,693 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 30-Jun-20 | LATEST | 3100 | 2721 | 9.5% | $25,930 | $27,193 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 29-May-20 | LATEST | 3044 | 2721 | 7.6% | $25,462 | $26,702 | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| 01-May-20 | BUY | 2830 | 2721 | $23,672 | $24,825 | -4.6% | -0.3% | |
| 31-Mar-20 | SELL | 2584 | 2855 | -7.2% | $23,672 | $22,667 | 4.4% | 0.3% |
| 29-Feb-20 | LATEST | 2954 | 2855 | 6.1% | $27,061 | $25,912 | 4.4% | 0.3% |
| 31-Jan-20 | LATEST | 3225 | 2855 | 15.8% | $29,544 | $28,289 | 4.4% | 0.3% |
| 29-Nov-19 | Adjust SL | 3140 | 2855 | 12.8% | $28,765 | $27,544 | 4.4% | 0.3% |
| 30-Aug-19 | Adjust SL | 2926 | 2728 | 5.1% | $26,805 | $25,667 | 4% | 0.3% |
| 28-Feb-19 | BUY | 2784 | 2681 | $25,504 | $24,421 | 4% | 0.3% | |
| 31-Dec-18 | SELL | 2506 | 2557 | 153.8% | $25,504 | $21,982 | 16% | 1.1% |
| 31-Jul-09 | BUY | 987.5 | 869 | $10,050 | $8,662 | 16% | 3.2% | |
| 30-Sep-08 | SELL | 1164 | 1256 | -16.9% | $10,050 | $10,211 | -2% | -0.4% |
| 30-May-08 | BUY | 1400 | 1256 | $12,088 | $12,281 | -2% | -0.4% | |
| 31-Jan-08 | SELL | 1378 | 1076 | 20.9% | $12,088 | $12,088 | 0% | 0% |
| 30-Jun-04 | STARTBUY | 1140 | 1076 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
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Below are the legacy charts – for historical record! – when Slack Investor used the SPY.US ETF as a proxy to base his buy/sell decisions on the S&P 500 Index … I have now started using the S&P 500 directly (see above).
From incrediblecharts.com
| DATE | ACTION | SPY | ~ S&P | MONTHLY | SPY (CYCLE) | VALUE OF 10K | VALUE OF 10K | SLACK INV | SLACK INV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 | STOPLOSS | GAIN/LOSS | SLACK INV sinceJUN04 | INDEX sinceJUN04 | OUTPERF | OUTPERF (pa) | |||
| 30-SEP-17 | Adjust SL | 251.2 | 232 | 154.2% | $27,611 | $24,031 | 15% | 1.1% | |
| 30-DEC-16 | Adjust SL | 208 | |||||||
| 30-Jun-16 | Adjust SL | 199 | |||||||
| 31-Aug-14 | Adjust SL | 182 | |||||||
| 30-Nov-12 | Adjust SL | 135 | |||||||
| 29-Jun-12 | Adjust SL | 127 | |||||||
| 31-Aug-11 | Adjust SL | 110 | |||||||
| 30-Jul-10 | Adjust SL | 101 | |||||||
| 31-Jul-09 | BUY | 98.81 | 987 | 87 | |||||
| 30-Sep-08 | SELL | 115.99 | 1166 | -17.4% | $10,860.73 | $11,096 | -2% | -0.5% | |
| 30-May-08 | BUY | 140.35 | 1400 | 126 | |||||
| 31-Jan-08 | SELL | 137.37 | 1378 | 2.8% | $13,142 | $13,142 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| 30-Nov-07 | Adjust SL | 141 | |||||||
| 31-Aug-07 | Adjust SL | 137 | |||||||
| 29-Sep-06 | BUY | 133.58 | 1335 | 127 | |||||
| 30-Jun-06 | Adjust SL | 123 | |||||||
| 31-Oct-05 | Adjust SL | 117 | |||||||
| 29-Jul-05 | BUY | 123.74 | 114 | ||||||
| 30-Apr-05 | Adjust SL | 114 | |||||||
| 31-Aug-04 | Adjust SL | 107 | |||||||
| 30-Jun-04 | START BUY | 104.53 | 101 | $10,000 | $10,000 |